Excellent question, Cordoba. I do not have exact fade unit count. I have been in and out of this thread and a few times I've agreed with Fade and followed him. Overall with fading, I have done far better on bases that I have done in the past. I'm not great at bases. Never have been.
Fade plays a lot of games. With that, you need to be careful the juice you are getting on the faded play. This is especially true in bases with the lines are not -110 on both sides.
Fade has a record of 546 - 662 -111.96 units, and that unit count is probably right +/- 5 units. He occasionally makes mistakes on his count, sometimes I catch it.
If someone was fading it was even +100 on each side, it would be:
(662*100) - (546*100) = +11,600
Yet Fade often plays dogs, so when he loses he is -1.0 unit (in this example -100). So if the average juice the fader was taking was 10% it would be:
(662*100) - (546*110) = +6,140
And if 20%:
(662*100) - (546*120) = +680
It is really a great illustration, with someone who plays a lot of plays, how much the average juice can add up the loss column. Yet, Fade also plays favorites from time to time as well. That being said, I am guessing a pure fader in this thread would be somewhere between the positive 61 (6,100) and 100 (10,000) unit mark.
I tend to take a team -1 when they are above -130, specifically if on the road. I believe over time, saving the 30-40% on juice adds up despite sometimes the game ending in 1 run victory and receiving the push instead of the win.
Just my two-cents. And when Fade posts NBA and NCAAB, when the lines are -110 both sides, I plan to do a little more detailed record keeping.
@wiscokid
I faded for a few short weeks. I kept a log of all those plays and I remember all plays combined working themselves out to (including dogs) an average of -116 juice for those few short weeks.
So based on your formula and using average odds of -116, it would put the fader at +28 units.
And if my monkey math is correct... if the average odds of all plays was just 4 points higher... at -120 average, it would put the fader at a mere +6.8 units... this off of fading someone at -112 units! That really puts things in perspective in just how much juice kills and how if you're going to fade all season, one really has to limit their juice!
I faded for a few short weeks. I kept a log of all those plays and I remember all plays combined working themselves out to (including dogs) an average of -116 juice for those few short weeks.
So based on your formula and using average odds of -116, it would put the fader at +28 units.
And if my monkey math is correct... if the average odds of all plays was just 4 points higher... at -120 average, it would put the fader at a mere +6.8 units... this off of fading someone at -112 units! That really puts things in perspective in just how much juice kills and how if you're going to fade all season, one really has to limit their juice!
I just realized I pretty much re-iterated what your post detailed Cisco only that I expressed it in terms of units. It's just easier for me to see the numbers that way
But yea... that just floors me. How at just -120 average odds it really wipes out almost all your gains fading someone at >-100 units.
Yep... This is really important stuff to take into consideration. I have my fades today at a 12.6% clip... Including one play (Pittsburgh) at -1. I try to get them as close to 10% as possible, and bonus points if under. I have yet to examine the number of pushes I get at -1 and how that plays out against the losses when juice is greater than 20% on a play. That is a little much for me to wrap my head around right now and my log isn't detailed enough to run the numbers.
I also agree foots/baskets will be a little easier to assess when it is -110 both ways. I'll do my best to take a detailed record during the basketball season.
I also agree foots/baskets will be a little easier to assess when it is -110 both ways. I'll do my best to take a detailed record during the basketball season.
Just to chime in here. I have faded 99% of fades baseball plays and I am up a little bit but nothing major. In the past I have just found someone and faded the totals that way juice is only 10%. When this season started Fade was dumping big time in basketball I thought I would go ahead and try and fade all plays. In heinsight if i would have just faded the totals I would have been up probably 50 units. Next year that is my plan if Fade is so gracias to keep this going.
Football and basketball are much easier to fade. Between CBB and NBA I was up around 120 to 150 units I would guess.
Fade is not a bad gambler he just plays a lot of games which is a faders dream! During the CBB conference tournaments he bet every game and did 1st half and 2nd half bets. I won 65 units in one week. Guys were coming in his thread telling him he was beating to many games to fade....I was laughing all the to the bank. Never tell a guy you are fading not to not beat so many games. LOL
Football and basketball are much easier to fade. Between CBB and NBA I was up around 120 to 150 units I would guess.
Fade is not a bad gambler he just plays a lot of games which is a faders dream! During the CBB conference tournaments he bet every game and did 1st half and 2nd half bets. I won 65 units in one week. Guys were coming in his thread telling him he was beating to many games to fade....I was laughing all the to the bank. Never tell a guy you are fading not to not beat so many games. LOL
