FA Cup

jip · Jan 1, 2004

3rd round weekend!

Any stand out picks from the Rx. experts?

I notice one of acw's big handicap games in the Fulham/Cheltenham Town match.

My own personal choice at the moment is Southampton to beat Newcastle at 7/4. Newcastle have a very poor record at Southampton and are not playing too well at present. I may go for Southampton on the AH (0 ball) to cover the event of Newcastle forcing a replay.

Brazil4Worldcup2002 · Jan 1, 2004

Aston Villa may pull an upset...it all really depends on what team Ferguson decides to give a go.

JackDee · Jan 2, 2004

a betting buddy of mine from the old island will be on:

Kidderminster +1

he's pretty good, dunno if i am going to bet or not, but i probably will.

JackDee · Jan 3, 2004

well, it looks like my betting buddy was right here since kinderminster managed the draw. (actually wolves managed to draw with a late equalizer.)

jip · Jan 3, 2004

Good call by your betting buddy JackDee

It was a shame that Wolves equalised in the last minute, it would have been a good cup upset.

What was also a shame (bit of an understatement) was Newcastle managed their first win in Southampton since 1972 and I was on Southampton. It wasn't even close 0-3

chriscol · Jan 4, 2004

is there a chance Liverpool is not winning today?

jip · Jan 13, 2004

3rd round replay midweek matches!!

For what its worth here are my picks

Bolton Wanderers -250 vs Tranmere Rovers

Bolton are in good form at present and surely they will be too strong at home for second division Tranmere. However I wouldn't take Bolton on the asian handicap as they will be missing some key players which means they may need to work hard to achieve victory.

Chelsea (-2) vs Watford (+2)

Chelsea returned to winning ways at the weekend with a 4-0 scoreline but if Watford can survuve the early pressure the value may be on them with Chelsea having a big two goal handicap to overcome. Still expect Chelsea to progress though.

Scarborough (0) vs Southend United (0)

With a 4th round glamour tie at home to Chelsea (assuming they beat Watford) awaiting the winners it is safe to say that both sides will be fired to win. Non-League Scarborough have done well to reach this stage of the competition and with Southend suffering near the bottom of division three there is probably not too much difference in ability between these sides.

However a couple of suspensions to Scarborough players may reduce their home advantage and the value to me looks to be just on Southend.

matahari · Jan 13, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Bolton Wanderers -250 vs Tranmere Rovers <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Bolton @ 1.50 at Canbet and Unibet. In fact they're missing more than a few key players.

jip · Jan 14, 2004

Some tough breaks for my FA Cup picks program resulting in an 0-3 record for the third round replays and an 0-4 record overall.

However, the fourth round is only 10 days away, providing the ideal opportunity to repair the damage inflicted by the 3rd round and come out with a profit in the tournaments later stages.

jip · Jan 23, 2004

Fourth round weekend!!

At last a chance to get off the mark with the following plays.

Scarborough Town (+2) vs Chelsea (-2)

When the stars at Chelsea Signed their multi-million £ contracts I suspect that a few of them didn't realise days like this would be in the job description.

In years past I would be more optimistic for Scarborough's chances but sadly the days of amateur players humiliating their over-paid professsional counterparts have become increasingly rare in recent FA Cup history.

Many of the requirements are there for a shock such as a small dilapadated ground, poor weather predicted etc. but one is missing. Except for the penalty areas the pitch still has a good covering of grass. Chelsea will still be able to play something close to their usual passing game which is why I have gone for them to overcome the handicap.

Nottm. Forest (+0.25) vs Sheff. Utd. (-0.25)

12 months ago Forest had a good time pushing for promotion. Since then Prutton, Harewood, Huckerby, Edwards, Lester and others have all left to balance the books and star man Johnson has broke his leg. Forest are now close to the 2nd div trapdoor and Hart's signings have been poor. Defeat to Warnock managed Sheff.Utd. will be another bitter pill for Forest fans to swallow.

Telford Utd. (+0.75) vs Millwall

Telford is a well set-up non-league club and may well be capable of getting a result at Bucks Head Stadium against their higher ranked oponents.

acw · Jan 24, 2004

Chelsea (-2)
I cannot agree more with you!

miamiman · Jan 24, 2004

hi acw,
do you know much about indosoccer , pointbet etc- how safe are they ?
for a while now pinn's lines are pretty weak, not sure if i could leave to much money there at the mo.

thanks buddy

acw · Jan 24, 2004

for a while now pinn's lines are pretty weak, not sure if i could leave to much money there at the mo.
Am I reading you right here that you do not consider Pinnacle as safe as most others do?
If so, congratulations! Same for Olympic!
Anyhow basically do not have too much money in books that have been (or still do) taking NBA bets. Indosoccer never has and Pointbet has. I think that should answer your question.

miamiman · Jan 24, 2004

Cheers for that,

as regards weak soccer lines at oly - that is correct, but i would still feel safer at oly as their juice on most sports is pretty high in regards to the other books in the carb.

For soccer asians at the moment - i stick to betfair,bet365, premierbet.

matahari · Jan 24, 2004

I doubt that Pinnacle loses on soccer, they still follow asian market religiously; and yes, their numbers are attractive, but have anybody catch them just once napping or being off the market (on a big league) ?? Even if they lose on soccer, they can afford it, can't they ?

JackDee · Jan 25, 2004

"Anyhow basically do not have too much money in books that have been (or still do) taking NBA bets."

Why?

acw · Jan 25, 2004

Jack,

All those books that I hear of that are in trouble have one thing in common: NBA. NBA may not be the reason that they are in trouble though. May simply be a coincidence.

acw · Jan 25, 2004

I doubt that Pinnacle loses on soccer, they still follow asian market religiously;

matahari,

Please have a look at this chart:
http://web.macauslot.com/soccer/html/odds_chart/f32064.html

It is the match Glascow Rangers vs Livingston. This one opened up 2 goals in Asia (Macauslot). Everyone got on Livingston. Probably the public was betting it with Pinnacle too. The price started moving and Pinnacle will have moved it too, but when it was 1.5/2 in Macau and the public was still betting on Livingston, then Pinnacle may have not gotten any action. Close to kick-off it reached 1.5 goals. If Pinnacle had it too at that price, then they will have moved it all the way on air. So far so good, but now our friend entropy wakes up and goes "hmm. That price has moved too far. That cannot be right. We must start betting on Glascow", so Pinnacle now gets money on Glascow at -1.5 and they already took money on Livingston +2, but have nothing in between.
Now I am not going to comment on who (the public or entropy) is right here, but I do know one thing: Pinnacle is fvcked whatever!
Same thing may have happened on the NBA! I am not too sure about that, as I have no direct contact with books that take NBA action, but I can imagine it.

matahari · Jan 25, 2004

acw,

It is a real possibility what you're talking about, however I disagree it is the case, let me note a few things:

1. How can you be 100% sure Pinnacle gets no action and moves on air ?

2. What would you prefer - move with a general trend even if you get no action, or stay where you are and imminently being hit.

3. No book moves solely on action.

souzathelooza · Jan 26, 2004

I agree books mostly move in conjunction with
other reputable books. For example, when NFL half time bets come on the board, CanBet has a 3-5 minute delay in putting up their second half number, because not only are they getting the opening number from other sources, they are seeing if there are any sudden movements off of that original number. This way other books can take the hit while CanBet can get into the game after the number has settled.

Olympic Sports book on the other hand plays
it more risky by posting a very early second half number, sometimes before the first half is even finished!