Week 13 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 13 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 13 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day.
On the season, Boston College actually has a slightly higher EPA per play (0.009) than North Carolina (0.007). The same also goes for the defensive side of the ball, as the Eagles have an EPA per play allowed of -0.015 and the Tar Heels are at -0.014. Sure, we’re talking fractional differences here, but why is the road team laying a field goal in a meeting between teams that are almost statistically identical. It’s because of their records on the year, and records can be misleading. It’s also because of the reputation of a UNC program that has been better than BC for years now.
Under Mack Brown, North Carolina is just 6-8-2 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 or less. The Tar Heels also tend to be unreliable spread bets at this point in the season, as they’re 14-26 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 under Brown. Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and the team is also 4-1 straight-up and 3-1-1 ATS at home under Bill O’Brien. That’s not all that surprising considering he is a fantastic coach. And the battle between the coaches is a big one for me here. At this point in his career, I don’t think Brown is a better head coach than O’Brien.
On the field, one thing to keep an eye on here is the Boston College rushing defense. The Eagles didn’t look great against the run last week, but they’re solid along the D-Line and they’re going to do everything they can to slow down Omarion Hampton, a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award. Jacolby Criswell has had some good moments at quarterback, but Boston College will feel good about testing his arm in a tough road environment — against a solid secondary. Criswell mostly looks to be a runner first, but the Eagles are going to try to take that away.
Offensively, this feels like a great matchup for Grayson James, who just took over as the starting quarterback. The Tar Heels can get after the passer, but they have a very shaky secondary. I like James to take advantage of that. He should be more comfortable now that he’s fully entrenched as the starter, and he should also enjoy being at home after having played at SMU last week.
Bet: Boston College +3 (-108)
RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!
Having said all of that, I do have a hard time believing in BYU in this week’s meeting with Arizona State. The Sun Devils are 23rd in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.069), and they’re a top-25 group in both Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.068) and Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.066). That balance is significant in a matchup like this, as Arizona State should be able to keep LJ Martin, a very explosive running back, in check. Not many teams can do that. And they also have a secondary that can be trusted to make life on Retzlaff rough. We have seen throughout the year that Retzlaff can get shaky when guys aren’t streaking wide open down the field. And not only will that not happen against this Arizona State secondary, but the team is going to put pressure on him. He’ll also be playing in one of the most insane environments of the entire college football season. This is one of the biggest games in Sun Devils history and this crowd is going to be very, very loud.
Offensively, I never really worry about Kenny Dillingham’s group. BYU’s defense has been great this year, but Cam Skattebo moves the chains against everyone. And Sam Leavitt just keeps getting better and better under center. Leavitt has now thrown for nine touchdowns with no picks over the last three weeks, and he continues to be a running threat. He’s going to have the Cougars on their toes in this one, and he should turn in another good performance.
BYU is also just 10-14 SU as a road underdog under head coach Kalani Sitake, and the Cougars are also 9-10 SU against teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under him. Meanwhile, Kenny Dillingham has never lost as a favorite with the Sun Devils, as they’re 6-0 SU when expected to win. They’re also 5-0 SU as home favorites under him.
Arizona State is simply a better team on both sides of the ball and playing at home in a game that means the world. It’d be surprising if the Cougars can overcome that.
Bet: Arizona State ML (-144 – 2 units)
UNC at Boston College – 12:00 pm ET
The Tar Heels are on a three-game winning streak heading into this game, but it feels like the wrong team is favored here. Or the line is a few points off, at the very least. I know the Eagles are coming off a loss to SMU, but that was a very competitive game against one of the best teams in the ACC. Boston College has now covered in three consecutive contests, and the team even earned a straight-up win over Syracuse. This team simply isn’t as bad as its record suggests, and there isn’t much of a gap between these two.On the season, Boston College actually has a slightly higher EPA per play (0.009) than North Carolina (0.007). The same also goes for the defensive side of the ball, as the Eagles have an EPA per play allowed of -0.015 and the Tar Heels are at -0.014. Sure, we’re talking fractional differences here, but why is the road team laying a field goal in a meeting between teams that are almost statistically identical. It’s because of their records on the year, and records can be misleading. It’s also because of the reputation of a UNC program that has been better than BC for years now.
Under Mack Brown, North Carolina is just 6-8-2 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 or less. The Tar Heels also tend to be unreliable spread bets at this point in the season, as they’re 14-26 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 under Brown. Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and the team is also 4-1 straight-up and 3-1-1 ATS at home under Bill O’Brien. That’s not all that surprising considering he is a fantastic coach. And the battle between the coaches is a big one for me here. At this point in his career, I don’t think Brown is a better head coach than O’Brien.
On the field, one thing to keep an eye on here is the Boston College rushing defense. The Eagles didn’t look great against the run last week, but they’re solid along the D-Line and they’re going to do everything they can to slow down Omarion Hampton, a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award. Jacolby Criswell has had some good moments at quarterback, but Boston College will feel good about testing his arm in a tough road environment — against a solid secondary. Criswell mostly looks to be a runner first, but the Eagles are going to try to take that away.
Offensively, this feels like a great matchup for Grayson James, who just took over as the starting quarterback. The Tar Heels can get after the passer, but they have a very shaky secondary. I like James to take advantage of that. He should be more comfortable now that he’s fully entrenched as the starter, and he should also enjoy being at home after having played at SMU last week.
Bet: Boston College +3 (-108)
RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!
BYU at Arizona State – 3:30 pm ET
I’m still feeling a certain way about BYU losing last week. I was told all week that Kansas was the right side, but it took a Jake Retzlaff interception in the red zone and a punt off a helmet for the Jayhawks to win that one. BYU was the better team on both sides of the ball, and the team ended up losing. In fairness, the Cougars have had a lot of luck this season, and it was only a matter of time before they lost a close game. But you’re not going to stop me from being hot about it.Having said all of that, I do have a hard time believing in BYU in this week’s meeting with Arizona State. The Sun Devils are 23rd in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.069), and they’re a top-25 group in both Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.068) and Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.066). That balance is significant in a matchup like this, as Arizona State should be able to keep LJ Martin, a very explosive running back, in check. Not many teams can do that. And they also have a secondary that can be trusted to make life on Retzlaff rough. We have seen throughout the year that Retzlaff can get shaky when guys aren’t streaking wide open down the field. And not only will that not happen against this Arizona State secondary, but the team is going to put pressure on him. He’ll also be playing in one of the most insane environments of the entire college football season. This is one of the biggest games in Sun Devils history and this crowd is going to be very, very loud.
Offensively, I never really worry about Kenny Dillingham’s group. BYU’s defense has been great this year, but Cam Skattebo moves the chains against everyone. And Sam Leavitt just keeps getting better and better under center. Leavitt has now thrown for nine touchdowns with no picks over the last three weeks, and he continues to be a running threat. He’s going to have the Cougars on their toes in this one, and he should turn in another good performance.
BYU is also just 10-14 SU as a road underdog under head coach Kalani Sitake, and the Cougars are also 9-10 SU against teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under him. Meanwhile, Kenny Dillingham has never lost as a favorite with the Sun Devils, as they’re 6-0 SU when expected to win. They’re also 5-0 SU as home favorites under him.
Arizona State is simply a better team on both sides of the ball and playing at home in a game that means the world. It’d be surprising if the Cougars can overcome that.
Bet: Arizona State ML (-144 – 2 units)
