How Sharps are Betting This Weekend’s NFL
One game down and 15 to go here in Week Two of the NFL season. Let’s take a look at how the Wise guys have been betting the Sunday and Monday Night pro football matchups so far. As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes conveniently in your schedules.
DETROIT AT CAROLINA: Sharps are once again lining up against Carolina. Many lost BIG money last week because they thought the loss of Cam Newton would be a major factor against Tampa Bay. Money has been coming in on the Lions in a way that suggests, once again, that Newton will miss the game. Carolina opened at -3.5. We’re now seeing a tug-of-war developing between Detroit +3 and Carolina -2.5…with the tugging coming harder on the Lions. Sources say that some sharps were impressed with the Lions this past Monday Night vs. NYG, and are betting “pro-Detroit” rather than “anti-Carolina.” Nothing happening on the total yet. From this point forward, if we don’t mention the total, it’s because sharps haven’t indicated a preference as of publication time.
MIAMI AT BUFFALO: Both teams won last week in impressive fashion as underdogs. Sharps may have been a bit more impressed with Miami, because an opener of +1 is down to pick-em. Oddsmakers were already rating the Dolphins as the better team with the opener…the Wise Guy felt the distance wasn’t enough. The Over/Under is down from 44.5 to 43 with some doubt about the ability of both quarterbacks to play well two weeks in a row.
JACKSONVILLE AT WASHINGTON: No interest on the team side here. Washington has looked awful thus far in 2014 (exhibitions and opener). But, -6 is about as low as you’ll see for a home team against the lousy Jaguars. Jacksonville did have a surprising first half last week…but was badly outclassed by the Eagles once Philly woke up. Wise Guys don’t want a piece of either team, though we’re hearing that some underdog money is waiting to see if the public pushes the line any higher. Those groups will settle for +6 if that’s the best they’ll get on game day. The Over/Under is down from 45 to 43.5 or 43. There aren’t currently any forecasts for significant weather issues, so Under betting on Sunday is connected to personnel or situational handicapping. So odd to see Under support after sharps spent five weeks betting Overs (to their regret!).
DALLAS AT TENNESSEE: We’ve mentioned often in the past that it takes a lot of money to move off a three and STAY off in the NFL. So, even though it’s only a half-point move, the sharps really loved Tennessee at -3 on the opener. It’s been a solid -3.5 everywhere since the move, meaning no buyback on Dallas at the hook. Some sharps took a late day flyer on the Cowboys last week and were immediately embarrassed. But, a lot more sharps were heavy on the Titans at Kansas City and cleaned up. Our first Over of the week as the opening total of 47.5 is up to 49. We hear that’s based entirely on the bad defense of Dallas.
ARIZONA AT NY GIANTS: Huge support here for Arizona after Monday Night Football showed how far off the pace the Giants are in learning their new offense. We’ve flipped favorits as an opener of NYG -1 is now up to Arizona -2.5. We’re hearing that sharp dog money is waiting for the full three. If the line stays at -2.5…then sharps will be satisfied to use the Giants in two-team teasers at +8.5 (a strategy that’s already lost for them on the Steelers this week). The total is down from 44.5 to 42.5 on the theory that NYG’s offense will have serious trouble getting points on the board against Arizona’s strong defense.
NEW ENGLAND AT MINNESOTA: This has been the least bet game so far for sharps. Sources tell us that the Wise Guys had made the number three themselves. That means they’ll fade any move from the public off the key number. No interest on the total.
NEW ORLEANS AT CLEVELAND: Only half the story has been told here thus far. Sharps preferring the Saints have driven the opener of -6 up to -6.5. Sharps preferring the Browns are waiting to see if they can get the full seven on game day. The public does like betting on Drew Brees. But, that’s cost the public a fortune this year and last! The Wise Guys wanting the Browns may have to settle for +6.5, or just pass the game. We’re hearing that the contingent wanting Browns +7 is significantly larger than the one that bet Saints -6.
ATLANTA AT CINCINNATI: Another dead spot on the card, with an opener of Cincinnati -5 standing solid all week. Sharps made the game five, and recognize that both teams are in letdown spots after very important divisional wins last week. The Over/Under is up from 48 to 49 in many places because interconference games tend to have less defensive intensity.
ST. LOUIS AT TAMPA BAY: Sharps still love Tampa Bay vs. backup quarterbacks! The fact that this game has moved from Bucs -3.5 to Bucs -6 may be suggesting that Shaun Hill won’t be able to return from his quad injury, meaning #3 Austin Davis or emergency acquisition Case Keenum could be seeing action. Either way, a Lovie Smith coached team should be expected to shut down backup QB’s…and that’s all the Rams have since the Sam Bradford injury. The total has dropped from 38 to 37, which is very low for the NFL these days.
SEATTLE AT SAN DIEGO: Seattle is up from -5 to -6 given their stellar start to the season at Green Bay while San Diego’s offense struggled vs. Arizona (in what did turn out to be an underdog cover for them anyway). We’re hearing San Diego money would come in at +7, and might even settle for +6.5 if that’s the best they’re going to get. Plenty of time before this late kickoff for the public to heat the Seahawks.
HOUSTON AT OAKLAND: Very little interest in this one…as we again have unimpressive teams priced right where the sharps had made the number anyway. The total has dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 because of the weak offensive performances both teams put on the board last week.
NY JETS AT GREEN BAY: Low interesting game at the opening price. The Packers started at -8. Some stores are testing -8.5. Sportsbooks would prefer this one move out of the teaser window, because the whole world will take Green Bay -2 or -2.5 in two-team teasers if there isn’t a line move before kickoff. Sharps have bet the total up from 45 to 46.
KANSAS CITY AT DENVER: No interest here either, with Denver -12.5 still standing pat. We may see a tug-of-war develop on game day between the public on Denver -12.5 and sharps on Kansas City +13. The Wise Guys were skeptical about the Chiefs last week, and got paid off. This is a very high number for a battle of playoff teams though.
CHICAGO AT SAN FRANCISCO: Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up here between San Francisco -6.5 and Chicago +7. There are already signs of that between different sharp syndicates. Public betting will only magnify the issue because most squares want TV favorites, but the Bears do have a large square following. Pick your team and get the best number! That’s what the Wise Guys are doing.
PHILADELPHIA AT INDIANAPOLIS (Monday Night): Possibly a tug-of-war here too between Indianapolis -3 and Philadelphia +3.5. For now, the Colts are getting more support at the three...but not enough to sustain any moves off the key number. The total is up from 52.5 to 54, projecting a shootout in good scoring conditions with talented young quarterbacks. Monitor line moves on game day for additional information.
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Market coverage here in the VSM BLOG resumes next Thursday when we study Tampa Bay/Atlanta in the NFL and a HUGE college game featuring Kansas State and Auburn. Now…go get THE BEST PLAYS ON THE BOARD from THE BEST HANDICAPPERS IN THE SPORTS BETTING INDUSTRY!
