Exbookie wants to help the players week 4.

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1st NFL play this year Ja’Marr Chase over 79.5 yards receiving +125

12 pack of LaBatt Blue to win 15

Who Dey
 

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1st NFL play this year Ja’Marr Chase over 79.5 yards receiving +125

12 pack of LaBatt Blue to win 15

Who Dey
I like this play. Bengals are in a must win situation as is JAX. Chase should step up & have a big game
 

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For those of you who don't do it this is exactly how you establish the "push-rate" for each number and then translate that to the value of the number.

So, when you hear someone say "the 4 is only worth 4 cents" they are giving you the push-rate for that number. This is why, no matter the minor rule changes, the 3 and 7 will always be the most valuable numbers in football. With the limited nature of how scoring occurs, those numbers will alway have the highest push-rates and thusly hold he most value. This is why you should NEVER buy off or onto numbers like 9 and 12 because they are essentially "dead" and hold little value relative to their historical push-rates. When considering buying numbers in football, which some pros refuse to ever do, you must comparatively value the price you are being charged (10 cents, 20 cents, 30 cents?) vs the push rate for the number you are buying off of. 20 years ago you could buy on and off the 7 in the NFL for 10 cents. You can't do that any more because the value for the 7 went up and the bookmakers want to hold that value more so they charge you more to buy it from them.

Since the addition of the two point conversion in the NFL, these are the most valuable numbers in order:

3
7
6
14
10
1
5
2
4
8

Since the inception of the two point conversion the 6 and the 5 have gained the most value and the 4 has lost the most value.

When I buy points in football it usually as an "ease mechanism" for me. Which is sometimes counterintuitive mathematically but good for my heart!
100% correct here
 

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ACE. Been a rough start to the year for me. Tomorrow I'm liking Bengals, Packers, Rams, Ravens. Any thoughts here? Thanks
Careful with the Bungholes
 

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Like to see what players think about this ……………..

The Raiders were humiliated in their home opener by the Panthers, who were outscored 73-13 in their first two games before taking a 33-7 lead Sunday en route to a 36-22 win.

Sharp bettors backed the Raiders early in the week to bounce back Sunday at Allegiant Stadium against the Browns.


“We took sharp play on the Raiders -1, got as high as 2, and it’s been bouncing back and forth between 1 and 2,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said Friday morning. “Usually, professional teams that have an embarrassing loss — and you can consider that such with what the Panthers were going in — will bounce back emotionally in a solid way.“That’s an angle that a lot of people look for. To take a team off an embarrassment and expect a really good effort in the next game, and I can see that angle in this one.”



The consensus favorite flipped from the Raiders -1½ to the Browns -1½ on Friday after Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said star defensive end Maxx Crosby (high ankle sprain) and star wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) will not play.

Cleveland flipped from a 2-point underdog to a 2-point favorite at Station Sports.
 

Dain Bramaged
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Raiders will play harder to pick up the slack and I expect a much more focused effort vs the brownies
I like LV a lot today.
GL
 

EX BOOKIE
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yes money moves the line…in this case the sharps move the line on friday. Money is now 70% on Cleveland!!

sometimes when a team is favored by -1 and the books know that most bet favorite they will move that team to +1 to cover it up

seen it happen and when I was a bookie I did the same
 

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Have to say that I was one that bet this game on Thursday because I saw all the number and think the injuries would not matter.

key game to see if a sharp in the 1st 3 days of seeing this game will do better than the sharps that move it 4.5 point in those two day!!!!

not my highest play ….but a key game for my Soul lol

-2 to +2.5. Someone will win by more than a FG..so the points will not matter
 

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Like to see what players think about this ……………..

The Raiders were humiliated in their home opener by the Panthers, who were outscored 73-13 in their first two games before taking a 33-7 lead Sunday en route to a 36-22 win.

Sharp bettors backed the Raiders early in the week to bounce back Sunday at Allegiant Stadium against the Browns.


“We took sharp play on the Raiders -1, got as high as 2, and it’s been bouncing back and forth between 1 and 2,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said Friday morning. “Usually, professional teams that have an embarrassing loss — and you can consider that such with what the Panthers were going in — will bounce back emotionally in a solid way.“That’s an angle that a lot of people look for. To take a team off an embarrassment and expect a really good effort in the next game, and I can see that angle in this one.”



The consensus favorite flipped from the Raiders -1½ to the Browns -1½ on Friday after Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said star defensive end Maxx Crosby (high ankle sprain) and star wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) will not play.

Cleveland flipped from a 2-point underdog to a 2-point favorite at Station Sports.
Injuries to key players also move lines.
 

EX BOOKIE
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Injuries to key players also move lines.
That a fact…think Adams out is the key guy….. QB RB WR are the ones in order that are key outs. Knew he could be out and on think the other would pick up the pace …because all other number point to LV winning by 8
 

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Raiders or Browns which ugly team will show up probably neither
 

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