Actually the formula used to set NFL totals has been around for many years. Predict how many yards of total offense there will be in a game, subtract 325 and then divide by 7.5, that will give you roughly where the books are going to put the total. For instance if they expect 650 yards total offense in the game, they would probably make an opener of 43 or so. There are other factors as they get around key numbers etc... to consider but this is roughly how they do it in the NFL. Unless I'm mistaken you've adjusted the 325 to 375 for the college game and you'r e using the average of what they've gained for the year instead of making your own projections on total yards? No comment other than to say it will be interesting to see how it turns out.
Ace - good luck today, like the Det/Jax under with you. <!-- / message -->
hey ACE I do have a spreadsheet but I still need to do a lot of calculations manually since I'm not that familiar with excel I just know the basic formulas. Maybe someone who has better knowledge of excel will be able to do this in one click but mine takes about an hour to do all. I can send you the spreadsheet just send me a PM with your email...I still have 2 emails from last year from you but not sure which one to send it to.
yes thats correct but the only thing is that the 375 number changes each week for college.For this week it was 372.9 which is the average for all the teams: 44,742/120 = 372.9 and do this for every week.
I wanted to see what it was for NFL each week and check out these numbers...cant get any closer to 325 thats why I tried doing the same for college.
NFL Total Avg Yds:
week 5=321.9
week 6=320.6
week 7=320.2
week 8=322.3
week 9=324.5
week 10=324.6
Also for college I'm only using the ones with value of +17 or more where as in NFL its +6 or more.
ope:
Ahhh, I remember that commercial jingle (for Ace Hardware):
"Ace is the place with the helpful hardware man"...
I am sure you can finish off that jingle with something more applicable to handicapping...
Great first half of the season Ace-Ace and BOL the rest of the way...
$648.00 #108 Cleveland (-3) over Denver (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 6) LOST
Denver is in a deep slide, dropping six straight games against the spread. And I don't think they have had enough time to regroup from their beating at home on Sunday against the Dolphins. The Browns are just 3-5, compared to Denver's 4-4, but they have played an infinitely more difficult schedule. Cleveland has been solid at home, covering nine of their last 11 in the Dawg Pound, and are 12-4 ATS in conference games. Denver has been terrible at the window while going just 7-24-1 ATS over the last couple years.
$3150.00 ‘Under’ 44.5 Jacksonville at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9) LOST
The Lions don't have a quarterback and the Jaguars don't have a consistent offense. The Jags have been a great 'over' team over the last couple years but this line is way out of whack. Jacksonville is 0-2-1 against the total over the last three weeks and Detroit is actually 2-3-1 against the total over the last six weeks. Dante Culpepper was taking snaps with the Lions and their first-team offense this week. If there's a chance that we see him in this game then there is a chance that the Lions aren't going to score more than 14 points. These two offenses have combined to average just 37 points per game.
$2400.00 #218 Atlanta (-1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9) WINNER
People continue to doubt this Falcons team but there is no doubt that they are for real. They are physical on both sides of the ball and they are building momentum. The Saints had a lot of trouble with both Carolina and Tampa Bay, two teams that play similarly to the Falcons. I expect more of the same. This is just Atlanta's second home game in two months and I think they will be charged up for a meaningful game in front of their home crowd. Atlanta is 3-0 at home and New Orleans is 0-3 on the road. New Orleans has won four straight in this series, so revenge is on the side of the Falcons. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and the Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their last seen against the NFC.
$300.00 #227 Kansas City (+15.5) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Betting on double-digit underdogs in the NFL is always a solid betting strategy, especially with divisional rivals. The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and even though they aren't very good they have been playing hard. The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in this series and I don't think the Chargers are a steady favorite.
$400.00 #231 New York Giants (+3) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
I think that the Giants have done more to prove that they are an elite team than the Eagles have. The Giants have won five of six in this series and are 8-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants have also been great on the road (19-7 ATS) and are a stellar 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Catching points is just a bonus. The Giants are going to win this one outright.
3 TEAM TEASER
DET UN 54.5 WIN
NYG+3
KC+25.5...............................$480/$400
A rare 2nd half picks FROM POST 112!
Atl+1/2..........................$800.00 WINNER
Atl under 24.5................$896.00 LOST ON A BOMB LAST PLAY
ON THE WEEK SO FAR I'M 2-3 -$1494.00
WITH TWO 3 PLAYS TO GO
Denver is in a deep slide, dropping six straight games against the spread. And I don't think they have had enough time to regroup from their beating at home on Sunday against the Dolphins. The Browns are just 3-5, compared to Denver's 4-4, but they have played an infinitely more difficult schedule. Cleveland has been solid at home, covering nine of their last 11 in the Dawg Pound, and are 12-4 ATS in conference games. Denver has been terrible at the window while going just 7-24-1 ATS over the last couple years.
$3150.00 ‘Under’ 44.5 Jacksonville at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9) LOST
The Lions don't have a quarterback and the Jaguars don't have a consistent offense. The Jags have been a great 'over' team over the last couple years but this line is way out of whack. Jacksonville is 0-2-1 against the total over the last three weeks and Detroit is actually 2-3-1 against the total over the last six weeks. Dante Culpepper was taking snaps with the Lions and their first-team offense this week. If there's a chance that we see him in this game then there is a chance that the Lions aren't going to score more than 14 points. These two offenses have combined to average just 37 points per game.
$2400.00 #218 Atlanta (-1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9) WINNER
People continue to doubt this Falcons team but there is no doubt that they are for real. They are physical on both sides of the ball and they are building momentum. The Saints had a lot of trouble with both Carolina and Tampa Bay, two teams that play similarly to the Falcons. I expect more of the same. This is just Atlanta's second home game in two months and I think they will be charged up for a meaningful game in front of their home crowd. Atlanta is 3-0 at home and New Orleans is 0-3 on the road. New Orleans has won four straight in this series, so revenge is on the side of the Falcons. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and the Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their last seen against the NFC.
$300.00 #227 Kansas City (+15.5) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
Betting on double-digit underdogs in the NFL is always a solid betting strategy, especially with divisional rivals. The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and even though they aren't very good they have been playing hard. The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in this series and I don't think the Chargers are a steady favorite.
$400.00 #231 New York Giants (+3) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 9)
I think that the Giants have done more to prove that they are an elite team than the Eagles have. The Giants have won five of six in this series and are 8-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants have also been great on the road (19-7 ATS) and are a stellar 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Catching points is just a bonus. The Giants are going to win this one outright.
3 TEAM TEASER
DET UN 54.5 WIN
NYG+3
KC+25.5...............................$480/$400
A rare 2nd half picks FROM POST 112!
Atl+1/2..........................$800.00 WINNER
Atl under 24.5................$896.00 LOST ON A BOMB LAST PLAY
ON THE WEEK SO FAR I'M 2-3 -$1494.00
WITH TWO 3 PLAYS TO GO
