NFL odds: Week 1 opening line report
The NFL -- world’s most popular league to watch and wager on -- is back Thursday. I’ll drink to that.
While the lockout was annoying, the sides reached a 10-year deal! I’ll drink to that, too.
And when I picture 17 straight weeks of watching up to 10 flat screens at once (for the 1 p.m. ET Sunday games), well, I will definitely drink to that.
Note to editor: The drinking starts after I turn in this column.
On to a stone-cold sober look at this week’s odds and pointspreads…
Not that there was ever any doubt, but Week 1 rams home the point: the NFL is a quarterback’s league.
Besides the Colts-Texans game, which some books took down due to Peyton Manning’s status, this week’s big line moves revolve around QB play, or the perception thereof.
The Cardinals opened as 3- to 5-point favorites over the Panthers. Now they’re laying 7, even 8.
“Kevin Kolb seems to have fit in well with Larry Fitzgerald, and you’ve got Carolina going with Cam Newton, a rookie quarterback,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “The public likes the Cardinals and the sharps like ‘em too.”
The Las Vegas Hilton opened the Browns as 3-point favorites over the Bengals. Now they’re laying 6.5 all over town.
“I think we have one ticket on the Bengals – I’m serious,” Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay told *********** on Saturday. “And it was for 20 dollars. The guy only risked 20, not 22.”
Cincy, of course, is force-feeding rookie Andy Dalton. Cleveland’s Colt McCoy turned in two outstanding preseason showings.
There was never any doubt about the QB situation in New England, which moved from a 4- to 7-point favorite at Miami. Kornegay said he opened the line at 4 back in April, when the Dolphins appeared to be targeting Kyle Orton or another upgrade over Chad Henne.
Kornegay said he’s written four times as many tickets on the Pats.
“They made some good moves in the offseason and they didn’t really lose too much,” Kornegay said. “And they’ve looked really good [except vs. Detroit]. These two teams definitely went in opposite directions.”
Biggest spread of the week – Vikings at Chargers (-9, 41)
San Diego finished No. 1 in total offense and total defense last season but did not make the playoffs due to comically bad special teams. Every offensive starter except Darren Sproles returns, and that has bettors believing.
“San Diego has been such a public team the last few years,” Stoneback said. “They’ve been far and away the best team in the division the last few years, even though they didn’t win it last year.”
San Diego’s season win total has risen from 10 to 10.5 and bettors are still going over, Stoneback said.
The Chargers started 2-5 SU and ATS last year. It was the fourth straight year San Diego opened 2-3 SU under Norv Turner.
Apparently that’s not enough to concern bettors, who see the Vikings as a team in transition.
Smallest spreads of the week – Lions at Buccaneers (-1.5, 41), Steelers at Ravens (-2.5, 36)
Tampa Bay opened as a 3- to 4-point favorite, but the number plummeted amid the never-ending surge of Lions’ love.
Last Dec. 19, Detroit beat the Bucs 23-20 in overtime in Tampa. The Lions were quarterbacked by third-stringer Drew Stanton – they’ll start Matthew Stafford on Sunday – and were getting 3.5 points. It was one of 12 covers Detroit produced in 2010, including five straight to end the season.
Stoneback said he can envision the Ravens’ line, which he opened at -3 (even), falling further as kickoff approaches. Baltimore hasn’t beaten a Ben Roethlisberger-led Pittsburgh team since 2006.
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 1
Thursday, 9/8/2011
NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY, 8:30 PM ET NBC
NEW ORLEANS: 6-0 Over Away if total is 45.5 to 49
GREEN BAY: 24-12 ATS all games
Sunday, 9/11/2011
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 59-39 ATS as underdog
BALTIMORE: 5-9 ATS at home vs. Pittsburgh
DETROIT at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 10-2 ATS vs. NFC
TAMPA BAY: 3-11 ATS in home games
ATLANTA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 22-11 ATS in all games
CHICAGO: 15-4 Under as underdog
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 4-1 ATS as road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts
KANSAS CITY: 13-28 ATS vs. AFC East
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 12-4 Over in road games
HOUSTON: 5-10 ATS in home games
PHILADELPHIA at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 6-0 Over in conf road games
ST LOUIS: 1-7 ATS vs. Philadelphia
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 26-46 ATS 1st month of season
CLEVELAND: 11-5 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 9-2 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
JACKSONVILLE: 3-6 ATS as favorite
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 12-3 Over Away 1st 2 wks of season
WASHINGTON: 10-24 ATS at home 1st month of season
CAROLINA at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-6 ATS as road dog of 7pts or less
ARIZONA: 72-46 Over on turf
SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 2-13 ATS as road underdog
SAN FRANCISCO: 13-3 Over at home if total is 35.5 to 38
MINNESOTA at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 1-9 ATS as an underdog
SAN DIEGO: 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
DALLAS at NY JETS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 13-3 Over in all games
NY JETS: 4-14 ATS at home 1st 2 wks of season
Monday, 9/12/2011
NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
NEW ENGLAND: 12-2 Over as favorite
MIAMI: 7-0 Over at home 1st half of season
OAKLAND at DENVER, 10:15 PM ET ESPN
OAKLAND: 29-61 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
DENVER: 82-52 Over as a home favorite
Trend Report
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Thursday, September 8
8:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GREEN BAY
New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
Sunday, September 11
1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
4:15 PM
CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
4:15 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN DIEGO
Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Washington
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Dallas's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home
Monday, September 12
7:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England's last 11 games
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Miami is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against New England
10:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games at home
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 1
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Thursday, September 8
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NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY - 9/8/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 134-99 ATS (+25.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Sunday, September 11
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PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT at TAMPA BAY - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA at CHICAGO - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA at ST LOUIS - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 142-101 ATS (+30.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CINCINNATI (4 - 12) at CLEVELAND (5 - 11) - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 99-132 ATS (-46.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA at ARIZONA - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA at SAN DIEGO - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS at NY JETS - 9/11/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Monday, September 12
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NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI - 9/12/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND at DENVER - 9/12/2011, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-61 ATS (-38.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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