[h=1]How Sharps Are Betting This Weekend's NFL[/h]
Sharps have actually been fairly quiet so far this week in pro football betting. An interesting schedule quirk has set up many very competitive games where the most logical pointspread would be right on the key number of three. You know it takes a lot of money to move off that number. To this point, many of those games are either seeing no action (because the line is correct) or a natural tug-of-war with preferences on both sides trying to play the percentages.
Also note that TWO games aren’t even up on the board yet because starting quarterback status was unknown at press time midday Friday for the Cleveland Browns in their game at New England, and the Green Bay Packers in their game at home against Atlanta.
With that in mind, let’s jump in. Games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
KANSAS CITY AT WASHINGTON: Kansas City opened at -3 as a road favorite, and hasn’t budged off that number. Sharps aren’t particularly impressed with either team in recent weeks. Washington is having an awful season that may get their head coach fired. Kansas City just lost three in a row and is dealing with some injuries. The total is up a point from 44 to 45 because Kansas City’s injuries have been on defense, which has allowed opponents to move the ball much more easily.
MINNESOTA AT BALTIMORE: Looks like we have a tug-of-war spot here. But, it’s going to be on the key number of seven rather than three Minnesota +7 is being bet by those preferring the underdog against a mediocre favorite. Baltimore -6.5 is being bet whenever the number drops because the Ravens are in a must-win situation with extra rest against a lame duck team that just played two overtime games in a row. Handicappers can make cases for either side…and they’re backing those cases at percentage prices. No interest in the total yet. From this point forward, if we don’t mention the Over/Under, it’s because a sharp preference hasn’t been made clear. Note that A LOT of games this week are being played in areas that have been dealing with cold weather all week. Some of the delay in sharp action has been the Wise Guys waiting for confirmed Sunday forecasts.
CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: No line as of press time. Jason Campbell hasn’t yet been cleared to play for Cleveland. Brandon Weeden hasn’t even been cleared to practice. Caleb Hanie reportedly would get the emergency start fi the first two can’t go.
OAKLAND AT NY JETS: The Wise Guys have really soured on the Jets. New York opened at -3. The game was bet down to Oakland +2.5 but DIDN’T’ inspire a tug-of-war. There was no relevant New York money that wanted the Jets at -2.5. Even though Oakland is on the road AGAIN, their extra preparation time off a Thanksgiving game in Dallas has earned them some respect in the number. Oakland will be a popular play in two-team teasers at this price because the six-point move would cross both the three and the seven.
INDIANAPOLIS AT CINCINNATI: The Bengals opened at -5.5 as a home favorite. That was bet very quickly to -6…and we’re now seeing some -6.5’s out there as we go to press. The market has decided Indianapolis is a pretender. The Colts had horrible stats last week vs. Tennessee even though they won and covered. And, they had been slumping for awhile before that. We’re hearing that Wise Guy money would come in on the underdog at +7, but only tentatively. The total has dropped from 44 to 43 on the assumption that a Bengals victory would mean another one of their “grinder” type games (which you saw last week in their win at San Diego).
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: Note that this game has been time-changed to prime time for national coverage on NBC. The Saints originally opened at -3.5, suggesting they were the slightly better team. Sharps hit Carolina right away to bring that number back to the key number of three, where it’s sat ever since. A tug-of-war isn’t expected because Carolina is getting more recent respect from the Wise Guys. Though, it’s possible one could develop between the Wise Guys and square bettors during the day Sunday. If the public comes in on the Saints hard enough to move that line back to -3.5, sharps would once again take the Panthers with the hook. The total has been bet up from 44.5 to 46. This was a game where nobody had to wait for a weather report because it’s in the Superdome.
DETROIT AT PHILADELPHIA: A definite tug-of-war game here. Different factions have been fond of these teams in recent weeks. Those who see Detroit as a playoff sleeper love getting +3 against a team with a poor recent home history who’s led by an inexperienced quarterback. Those who see Philadelphia as the real deal under Nick Foles can’t believe they can lay just -2.5 vs. the turnover prone Lions in an outdoors game in questionable weather. The Lions just lost badly at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago. Strong tug-of-war here…and oddsmakers will hope the game doesn’t land exactly on three. The Over/Under has been bet up from 53 to 54, suggesting the weather won’t be brutal.
MIAMI AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -3.5. That was bet down to -3 in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle outdoors in cold weather. Half points really matter around key numbers when scoring becomes scarce. No tug-of-war yet. One could develop if squares hit the home favorite on game day. The Over/Under has been down a point from an opener of 41.5 to 40.5.
BUFFALO AT TAMPA BAY: Interesting here that we’ve had no movement off an opener of Tampa Bay -2.5. If sharps liked the favorite…and they’ve been LOVING Tampa Bay in recent weeks…they would have jumped right on that. It didn’t happen. Bills supporters would prefer getting the full +3. They’ll settle for using Buffalo +8.5 in two-team teasers if they have to. Be aware though that a lot of the recent Tampa Bay money has been hitting Sunday mornings. Maybe that money is waiting again, though that would be odd at a number like -2.5.
TENNESSEE AT DENVER: Not much interest here. Denver did drop from an opener of -12.5 down to -12. Sources tell us that’s because the weather is expected to be cold…and many old school sharps will take any double digit underdog in cold weather. The line only moved half a point, so this wasn’t a widely applied strategy.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Arizona opened at -7. Sharp money came in on the underdog immediately to drop the line to St. Louis +6.5. That suggested a potential tug-of-war brewing. But, the Arizona money never materialized. In fact, more St. Louis money came in…and many stores were testing St. Louis +6 as we went to press. Sources tell us this is due to the limited throwing time in practice this week for Carson Palmer. He hurt his elbow last week in Philadelphia and may not be 100%. This has also caused the Over/Under to drop from 42.5 to 41.5.
NY GIANTS AT SAN DIEGO: All the interest here has been on the total. An opener of 45 has been bet up to 47.5 with a pair of quarterbacks who know how to move the ball playing in a non-conference game in good weather that has no reason to be a defensive struggle. Quants couldn’t believe they could bet Over 45 and Over 46 in this game! No movement on the team side line of San Diego -3. Sharps would fade any move off the key number generated by public action.
SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO: A tug-of-war game here with Seattle +3 getting bet just as hard as San Francisco -2.5. The Seattle money believes they have the best team in the conference getting a full field goal against an inferior team. The San Francisco money believes Seattle will be flat off their huge win over New Orleans Monday Night that virtually clinched the #1 seed. Plus, the return of Michael Crabtree should help SF be more competitive against playoff caliber opposition than they’ve been lately.
ATLANTA AT GREEN BAY: This is now an early kickoff rather than the Sunday Night game. It’s not known at press time whether or not Aaron Rodgers will be able to return to start the game for Green Bay. Matt Flynn was taking first team snaps in late week practices. No line on the board yet.
DALLAS AT CHICAGO (Monday Night): We’ve seen the favorite flip in this one. Dallas opened around -1 or -1.5 in most stores. Chicago money came in right away because of their climate advantage in what’s expected to be very cold conditions. Some stores are now showing Chicago at -1 while others have settled at pick-em. You don’t normally see a tug-of-war around pick-em because ties are so rare. But, a tie could actually come into play in bad weather because it’s harder to score in overtime. The Over/Under has been down from 49 to 48 even with two very bad defenses because of the weather forecast.
Sharps have actually been fairly quiet so far this week in pro football betting. An interesting schedule quirk has set up many very competitive games where the most logical pointspread would be right on the key number of three. You know it takes a lot of money to move off that number. To this point, many of those games are either seeing no action (because the line is correct) or a natural tug-of-war with preferences on both sides trying to play the percentages.
Also note that TWO games aren’t even up on the board yet because starting quarterback status was unknown at press time midday Friday for the Cleveland Browns in their game at New England, and the Green Bay Packers in their game at home against Atlanta.
With that in mind, let’s jump in. Games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
KANSAS CITY AT WASHINGTON: Kansas City opened at -3 as a road favorite, and hasn’t budged off that number. Sharps aren’t particularly impressed with either team in recent weeks. Washington is having an awful season that may get their head coach fired. Kansas City just lost three in a row and is dealing with some injuries. The total is up a point from 44 to 45 because Kansas City’s injuries have been on defense, which has allowed opponents to move the ball much more easily.
MINNESOTA AT BALTIMORE: Looks like we have a tug-of-war spot here. But, it’s going to be on the key number of seven rather than three Minnesota +7 is being bet by those preferring the underdog against a mediocre favorite. Baltimore -6.5 is being bet whenever the number drops because the Ravens are in a must-win situation with extra rest against a lame duck team that just played two overtime games in a row. Handicappers can make cases for either side…and they’re backing those cases at percentage prices. No interest in the total yet. From this point forward, if we don’t mention the Over/Under, it’s because a sharp preference hasn’t been made clear. Note that A LOT of games this week are being played in areas that have been dealing with cold weather all week. Some of the delay in sharp action has been the Wise Guys waiting for confirmed Sunday forecasts.
CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: No line as of press time. Jason Campbell hasn’t yet been cleared to play for Cleveland. Brandon Weeden hasn’t even been cleared to practice. Caleb Hanie reportedly would get the emergency start fi the first two can’t go.
OAKLAND AT NY JETS: The Wise Guys have really soured on the Jets. New York opened at -3. The game was bet down to Oakland +2.5 but DIDN’T’ inspire a tug-of-war. There was no relevant New York money that wanted the Jets at -2.5. Even though Oakland is on the road AGAIN, their extra preparation time off a Thanksgiving game in Dallas has earned them some respect in the number. Oakland will be a popular play in two-team teasers at this price because the six-point move would cross both the three and the seven.
INDIANAPOLIS AT CINCINNATI: The Bengals opened at -5.5 as a home favorite. That was bet very quickly to -6…and we’re now seeing some -6.5’s out there as we go to press. The market has decided Indianapolis is a pretender. The Colts had horrible stats last week vs. Tennessee even though they won and covered. And, they had been slumping for awhile before that. We’re hearing that Wise Guy money would come in on the underdog at +7, but only tentatively. The total has dropped from 44 to 43 on the assumption that a Bengals victory would mean another one of their “grinder” type games (which you saw last week in their win at San Diego).
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: Note that this game has been time-changed to prime time for national coverage on NBC. The Saints originally opened at -3.5, suggesting they were the slightly better team. Sharps hit Carolina right away to bring that number back to the key number of three, where it’s sat ever since. A tug-of-war isn’t expected because Carolina is getting more recent respect from the Wise Guys. Though, it’s possible one could develop between the Wise Guys and square bettors during the day Sunday. If the public comes in on the Saints hard enough to move that line back to -3.5, sharps would once again take the Panthers with the hook. The total has been bet up from 44.5 to 46. This was a game where nobody had to wait for a weather report because it’s in the Superdome.
DETROIT AT PHILADELPHIA: A definite tug-of-war game here. Different factions have been fond of these teams in recent weeks. Those who see Detroit as a playoff sleeper love getting +3 against a team with a poor recent home history who’s led by an inexperienced quarterback. Those who see Philadelphia as the real deal under Nick Foles can’t believe they can lay just -2.5 vs. the turnover prone Lions in an outdoors game in questionable weather. The Lions just lost badly at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago. Strong tug-of-war here…and oddsmakers will hope the game doesn’t land exactly on three. The Over/Under has been bet up from 53 to 54, suggesting the weather won’t be brutal.
MIAMI AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -3.5. That was bet down to -3 in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle outdoors in cold weather. Half points really matter around key numbers when scoring becomes scarce. No tug-of-war yet. One could develop if squares hit the home favorite on game day. The Over/Under has been down a point from an opener of 41.5 to 40.5.
BUFFALO AT TAMPA BAY: Interesting here that we’ve had no movement off an opener of Tampa Bay -2.5. If sharps liked the favorite…and they’ve been LOVING Tampa Bay in recent weeks…they would have jumped right on that. It didn’t happen. Bills supporters would prefer getting the full +3. They’ll settle for using Buffalo +8.5 in two-team teasers if they have to. Be aware though that a lot of the recent Tampa Bay money has been hitting Sunday mornings. Maybe that money is waiting again, though that would be odd at a number like -2.5.
TENNESSEE AT DENVER: Not much interest here. Denver did drop from an opener of -12.5 down to -12. Sources tell us that’s because the weather is expected to be cold…and many old school sharps will take any double digit underdog in cold weather. The line only moved half a point, so this wasn’t a widely applied strategy.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Arizona opened at -7. Sharp money came in on the underdog immediately to drop the line to St. Louis +6.5. That suggested a potential tug-of-war brewing. But, the Arizona money never materialized. In fact, more St. Louis money came in…and many stores were testing St. Louis +6 as we went to press. Sources tell us this is due to the limited throwing time in practice this week for Carson Palmer. He hurt his elbow last week in Philadelphia and may not be 100%. This has also caused the Over/Under to drop from 42.5 to 41.5.
NY GIANTS AT SAN DIEGO: All the interest here has been on the total. An opener of 45 has been bet up to 47.5 with a pair of quarterbacks who know how to move the ball playing in a non-conference game in good weather that has no reason to be a defensive struggle. Quants couldn’t believe they could bet Over 45 and Over 46 in this game! No movement on the team side line of San Diego -3. Sharps would fade any move off the key number generated by public action.
SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO: A tug-of-war game here with Seattle +3 getting bet just as hard as San Francisco -2.5. The Seattle money believes they have the best team in the conference getting a full field goal against an inferior team. The San Francisco money believes Seattle will be flat off their huge win over New Orleans Monday Night that virtually clinched the #1 seed. Plus, the return of Michael Crabtree should help SF be more competitive against playoff caliber opposition than they’ve been lately.
ATLANTA AT GREEN BAY: This is now an early kickoff rather than the Sunday Night game. It’s not known at press time whether or not Aaron Rodgers will be able to return to start the game for Green Bay. Matt Flynn was taking first team snaps in late week practices. No line on the board yet.
DALLAS AT CHICAGO (Monday Night): We’ve seen the favorite flip in this one. Dallas opened around -1 or -1.5 in most stores. Chicago money came in right away because of their climate advantage in what’s expected to be very cold conditions. Some stores are now showing Chicago at -1 while others have settled at pick-em. You don’t normally see a tug-of-war around pick-em because ties are so rare. But, a tie could actually come into play in bad weather because it’s harder to score in overtime. The Over/Under has been down from 49 to 48 even with two very bad defenses because of the weather forecast.
I could of said it any better.
"A tug-of-war game here with Seattle +3 getting bet just as hard as San Francisco -2.5. The Seattle money believes they have the best team in the conference getting a full field goal against an inferior team. The San Francisco money believes Seattle will be flat off their huge win over New Orleans Monday Night that virtually clinched the #1 seed".
Pass out all life preservers.
"A tug-of-war game here with Seattle +3 getting bet just as hard as San Francisco -2.5. The Seattle money believes they have the best team in the conference getting a full field goal against an inferior team. The San Francisco money believes Seattle will be flat off their huge win over New Orleans Monday Night that virtually clinched the #1 seed".
Pass out all life preservers.
So you bet $500 on a game or you bet 5 units.....I bet $7800 which is 7.8 units and everyone thinks I'm chasing...to much.....diff/ levers that what we are talking about....at docsports I posted 1-8 units ...this week there are 15 units in cfb...pick up 2 units this week....NFL I have 19 units going over those 5 plays........this week 34 units at docsports is on the line most week 30-40 units in both sports is avg.....all you are seeing is my plays with $$$$$. And to me this is AVG...IF I JUMP IT UP TO OVER 9k or more...you guy acan say than I'm chasing ......I KNOW THAT DET GAME was going to have a lot of snow....I walk away...wish you the best on this game.
