Not at docsport....me I'm a dime player. 1-4 units....investment play is between 2-4 units or $2000-$4000
i never do 1 unit play its .2 - .8 of a unit. Or $200 to $800 plays...it's always been that way (past 15 years).... Just because I work for docsports I'm not going to change the way I bet the $$$$
Most week I bet 2-3 investment plays and 3-4 action plays. $8k- $9k every week over the last 10 years....NOW I BET 3-4 games WITH ONLY 3 investment plays and no action and this week I have $6900 in plays AND YOU CALL THAT CHASING
IF I WAS CHASING....IT WOULD BE MORE THAN WHAT I BEEN BETTING.
ACE
Geeez............rough crowd!
Ace gives you the most lopsided win of the day and not a single thanks.
Sounds like a bunch of whining posers. Heres a tip guys, no one cares how cool you sound.
Take what you need, try to give back a little, to those farther back on the learning curve, and don't waste an ounce of energy on what others think.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING ACE. BOL on your plays tomorrow. I like the 5 u play.
Ace gives you the most lopsided win of the day and not a single thanks.
Sounds like a bunch of whining posers. Heres a tip guys, no one cares how cool you sound.
Take what you need, try to give back a little, to those farther back on the learning curve, and don't waste an ounce of energy on what others think.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING ACE. BOL on your plays tomorrow. I like the 5 u play.
[h=1]How Sharps Are Betting This Weekend's NFL[/h]
Three NFL games are already in the books, but we still have a lucky 13 more to discuss for Sunday and Monday Night. There are no more bye weeks in pro football this season, so the schedule will be back to 16 games a week the rest of the way. Sharps are glad the bye weeks are over because that gives them more games to attack!
Here’s how the Wise Guys have been betting the NFL games still left on this week’s card. We’ll take the matchups in market rotation order so you can make notes on your schedules.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened at -4, but Tennessee was bet down to +3.5 fairly quickly. Many sharps in Vegas think of the Colts as a fraud who caught some breaks earlier this season. Others see them as a team that’s biding its time until the playoffs get here. Either way, there’s not much reason to support the Colts at the moment, unless the line drops all the way down to the key number of three.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Denver opened at -3, but was bet up to -5 because of the injury situation for the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs are getting hurt at the wrong time…and are being exposed as pretenders now that their schedule has toughened up. Even though Denver had to go overtime on the road last week, and is playing on the road again here…the Wise Guys thought they should have been favored by a lot more than a field goal over the fading Chiefs. The Over/Under of 47.5 was bet up to 49.5 for the same reason…Kansas City’s defensive injuries will make it tough to slow down Peyton Manning.
JACKSONVILLE AT CLEVELAND: No betting interest in this one yet from sharps, as the current line is the same as the opener. Nobody wants Brandon Weeden as a favorite. Nobody wants Jacksonville out of climate in a letdown spot on the road after upsetting a divisional rival on the road. We are hearing from our sources that sharps will come in on Jacksonville and the Under on game day if weather is going to help reduce scoring.
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: The Wise Guys have been cleaning up with Tampa Bay in recent weeks, and jumped on them again here. An opener of Tampa Bay +9.5 is all the way down to Tampa Bay +7.5. Carolina may get some support if the line moves to the key number of seven. But…sharps are concerned they’ve been physically worn down by their recent schedule. Those in at +8 or better are very happy with their positions.
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: The main interest here has been on the Over/Under (we’re only going to mention totals when clear sentiments have already been expressed with cold, hard cash!). An opener of 48 was bet up to 50. The line may go higher given how badly these defenses have been playing…and the fact that the game is indoors. The quants couldn’t believe oddsmakers started with a number below 50 given the caliber of defenses on the field. Minnesota has stayed fairly steady at -1, with some stores experimenting with pick-em just to see if that generates any action. Sharps are telling us they prefer assuming both defenses will struggle rather than trusting either individual team to get the job done.
ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA: We have a tug-of-war developing in this one. Those have been relatively uncommon in recent weeks after popping up all over the place early in the season. Philadelphia is getting support at -3, while Arizona is getting support at +3.5. There’s generally more passion behind Arizona at +3.5…which is why many stores are experimenting with three and added vigorish. Sharps like that they’ve seen from both teams in recent weeks. You’ll recall that many Wise Guys came in hard on Arizona on game day vs. Indy last week and cashed their tickets very easily.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Sharps were very surprised that the Jets opened at -3 given their recent poor play. They jumped on Miami hard at that price, and some kept betting even at +2.5 and +2. You’ll definitely see the Dolphins in two-team teasers if the regular game line stars right around the two...because a six-point move would cross both the three and the seven. The total is up from an opener of 38.5 to 39.5 or 40, which suggests that weather won’t be a problem this weekend. The Wise Guys typically won’t bet Overs in this stadium unless there’s no wind at all at this time of the year.
ATLANTA AT BUFFALO: Another potential tug-of-war here, though not with the same intensity that we saw in Arizona/Philadelphia. Atlanta +3.5 is getting support, as is Buffalo -3. We’re hearing that the stores would rather root for Buffalo -3.5 than Atlanta +3…so most locales will take positions against Atlanta and live with the consequences. The total has come down a point, which is a bit of a surprise for an indoor game matching two teams who don’t need peak defensive intensity given their season situations at the moment.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco opened at -9.5, trying to tease some interest on the Niners at just below the key number of 10. Sharps like the Rams, and weren’t interested in waiting to see if the public would be baited. Sharps bet St. Louis hard at +9.5, +9, and at +8.5. We’re now seeing solid eights most everywhere. That will create a headache for sportsbooks because the public and the Wise Guys will put SF in two-team teasers at that price to come down below a field goal. Some tricky exposure issues for sportsbooks the way this is playing out.
NEW ENGLAND AT HOUSTON: A small tug-of-war here with New England -7 and Houston -7.5. The public is likely to bet the Patriots on game day if they get involved at all. That would drive the line higher…which would bring in more sharp money on the big home underdog. Sharps still hate Houston after the past few weeks, but they know how hard it is to win big on the road right after a huge overtime game. This is a very tough schedule spot for the Pats, even if they are playing much better football at the moment. The total has been bet up from an opener of 46 to 47.5. One way to support Tom Brady in a spot like this is to bet the Over rather than asking him to dramatically outscore what his tired defense might give up.
CINCINNATI AT SAN DIEGO: We’ve seen the favorite flip here, as San Diego is now a small favorite after Cincinnati opened as slight chalk. Sharps have soured on Cincinnati after their recent struggles (outside of all the gift points vs. Cleveland). Even after a bye week, the Wise Guys didn’t believe the Bengals should be laying points on the road to a Wildcard contender. The opening total of 45 has shot way up to 48.5, a reflection of the high scoring game San Diego played last week vs. KC. The Chargers defense has been very poor this year. One way to hedge against a San Diego investment is to back the Over at the same time.
NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: NBC decided not to flex out of this matchup since major markets were involved. So, the Sunday Night game this week won’t involve playoff contenders (Denver/Kansas City was protected by CBS). Sharps bet against the Giants as the road favorite at -2. We’re now seeing Washington +1.5 or +1 in most stores. The Wise Guys will look to use Washington in teasers at +1.5 or +2 because the six-point move would cross both the three and the seven. But, some sharps shy away from non-contenders in teasers in December.
NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE (Monday Night): You don’t often see a tug-of-war away from a key number. But, that’s been the case so far this week. Seattle tends to get support at -4.5, but line moves up to -5 tend to bring in New Orleans money. So, sharp contingents preferring Seattle are taking -4.5 figuring that’s the best they’ll see. Dog lovers who made this game closer to the field goal are happy to take the five. It will be interesting to see how game day betting by the public influences this dynamic. The Over/Under opened at 46 and has been bet up to 47. We’re hearing that’s based on the current forecast for acceptable weather, and that it’s coming from the Saints contingents that like backing Drew Brees in a big game.
Three NFL games are already in the books, but we still have a lucky 13 more to discuss for Sunday and Monday Night. There are no more bye weeks in pro football this season, so the schedule will be back to 16 games a week the rest of the way. Sharps are glad the bye weeks are over because that gives them more games to attack!
Here’s how the Wise Guys have been betting the NFL games still left on this week’s card. We’ll take the matchups in market rotation order so you can make notes on your schedules.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened at -4, but Tennessee was bet down to +3.5 fairly quickly. Many sharps in Vegas think of the Colts as a fraud who caught some breaks earlier this season. Others see them as a team that’s biding its time until the playoffs get here. Either way, there’s not much reason to support the Colts at the moment, unless the line drops all the way down to the key number of three.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Denver opened at -3, but was bet up to -5 because of the injury situation for the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs are getting hurt at the wrong time…and are being exposed as pretenders now that their schedule has toughened up. Even though Denver had to go overtime on the road last week, and is playing on the road again here…the Wise Guys thought they should have been favored by a lot more than a field goal over the fading Chiefs. The Over/Under of 47.5 was bet up to 49.5 for the same reason…Kansas City’s defensive injuries will make it tough to slow down Peyton Manning.
JACKSONVILLE AT CLEVELAND: No betting interest in this one yet from sharps, as the current line is the same as the opener. Nobody wants Brandon Weeden as a favorite. Nobody wants Jacksonville out of climate in a letdown spot on the road after upsetting a divisional rival on the road. We are hearing from our sources that sharps will come in on Jacksonville and the Under on game day if weather is going to help reduce scoring.
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: The Wise Guys have been cleaning up with Tampa Bay in recent weeks, and jumped on them again here. An opener of Tampa Bay +9.5 is all the way down to Tampa Bay +7.5. Carolina may get some support if the line moves to the key number of seven. But…sharps are concerned they’ve been physically worn down by their recent schedule. Those in at +8 or better are very happy with their positions.
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: The main interest here has been on the Over/Under (we’re only going to mention totals when clear sentiments have already been expressed with cold, hard cash!). An opener of 48 was bet up to 50. The line may go higher given how badly these defenses have been playing…and the fact that the game is indoors. The quants couldn’t believe oddsmakers started with a number below 50 given the caliber of defenses on the field. Minnesota has stayed fairly steady at -1, with some stores experimenting with pick-em just to see if that generates any action. Sharps are telling us they prefer assuming both defenses will struggle rather than trusting either individual team to get the job done.
ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA: We have a tug-of-war developing in this one. Those have been relatively uncommon in recent weeks after popping up all over the place early in the season. Philadelphia is getting support at -3, while Arizona is getting support at +3.5. There’s generally more passion behind Arizona at +3.5…which is why many stores are experimenting with three and added vigorish. Sharps like that they’ve seen from both teams in recent weeks. You’ll recall that many Wise Guys came in hard on Arizona on game day vs. Indy last week and cashed their tickets very easily.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Sharps were very surprised that the Jets opened at -3 given their recent poor play. They jumped on Miami hard at that price, and some kept betting even at +2.5 and +2. You’ll definitely see the Dolphins in two-team teasers if the regular game line stars right around the two...because a six-point move would cross both the three and the seven. The total is up from an opener of 38.5 to 39.5 or 40, which suggests that weather won’t be a problem this weekend. The Wise Guys typically won’t bet Overs in this stadium unless there’s no wind at all at this time of the year.
ATLANTA AT BUFFALO: Another potential tug-of-war here, though not with the same intensity that we saw in Arizona/Philadelphia. Atlanta +3.5 is getting support, as is Buffalo -3. We’re hearing that the stores would rather root for Buffalo -3.5 than Atlanta +3…so most locales will take positions against Atlanta and live with the consequences. The total has come down a point, which is a bit of a surprise for an indoor game matching two teams who don’t need peak defensive intensity given their season situations at the moment.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco opened at -9.5, trying to tease some interest on the Niners at just below the key number of 10. Sharps like the Rams, and weren’t interested in waiting to see if the public would be baited. Sharps bet St. Louis hard at +9.5, +9, and at +8.5. We’re now seeing solid eights most everywhere. That will create a headache for sportsbooks because the public and the Wise Guys will put SF in two-team teasers at that price to come down below a field goal. Some tricky exposure issues for sportsbooks the way this is playing out.
NEW ENGLAND AT HOUSTON: A small tug-of-war here with New England -7 and Houston -7.5. The public is likely to bet the Patriots on game day if they get involved at all. That would drive the line higher…which would bring in more sharp money on the big home underdog. Sharps still hate Houston after the past few weeks, but they know how hard it is to win big on the road right after a huge overtime game. This is a very tough schedule spot for the Pats, even if they are playing much better football at the moment. The total has been bet up from an opener of 46 to 47.5. One way to support Tom Brady in a spot like this is to bet the Over rather than asking him to dramatically outscore what his tired defense might give up.
CINCINNATI AT SAN DIEGO: We’ve seen the favorite flip here, as San Diego is now a small favorite after Cincinnati opened as slight chalk. Sharps have soured on Cincinnati after their recent struggles (outside of all the gift points vs. Cleveland). Even after a bye week, the Wise Guys didn’t believe the Bengals should be laying points on the road to a Wildcard contender. The opening total of 45 has shot way up to 48.5, a reflection of the high scoring game San Diego played last week vs. KC. The Chargers defense has been very poor this year. One way to hedge against a San Diego investment is to back the Over at the same time.
NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: NBC decided not to flex out of this matchup since major markets were involved. So, the Sunday Night game this week won’t involve playoff contenders (Denver/Kansas City was protected by CBS). Sharps bet against the Giants as the road favorite at -2. We’re now seeing Washington +1.5 or +1 in most stores. The Wise Guys will look to use Washington in teasers at +1.5 or +2 because the six-point move would cross both the three and the seven. But, some sharps shy away from non-contenders in teasers in December.
NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE (Monday Night): You don’t often see a tug-of-war away from a key number. But, that’s been the case so far this week. Seattle tends to get support at -4.5, but line moves up to -5 tend to bring in New Orleans money. So, sharp contingents preferring Seattle are taking -4.5 figuring that’s the best they’ll see. Dog lovers who made this game closer to the field goal are happy to take the five. It will be interesting to see how game day betting by the public influences this dynamic. The Over/Under opened at 46 and has been bet up to 47. We’re hearing that’s based on the current forecast for acceptable weather, and that it’s coming from the Saints contingents that like backing Drew Brees in a big game.
