<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> Cowboys vs. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Oakland</st1lace></st1:City> Raiders:
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Tony Romo is the starter for the Cowboys, and he will likely play 2-3 series to open for the Cowboys. Journeyman Jon Kitna was traded to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> this off-season and is now the back-up to Tony Romo. Kitna will likely get the remainder of the first half and may even play a few series in the third quarter. Rookie Stephen McGee will get extended playing time in the third and fourth quarter and fellow rookie Rudy Carpenter will likely close the game for the Cowboys.<o></o>
<o> </o>
The Raiders, surprisingly enough, have a talented quarterback corps. They will open the game with JaMarcus Russell and he will likely see most, if not all, of the first quarter and may even see time into the second quarter. Veteran Jeff Garcia will replace Russell and play the remainder of the first half and possibly see some time in the third quarter. Former NFL starters Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye will see some time in the second half for the Raiders.
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> Cowboys vs. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oakland</st1lace></st1:City> Raiders:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Tony Romo is the starter for the Cowboys, and he will likely play 2-3 series to open for the Cowboys. Journeyman Jon Kitna was traded to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> this off-season and is now the back-up to Tony Romo. Kitna will likely get the remainder of the first half and may even play a few series in the third quarter. Rookie Stephen McGee will get extended playing time in the third and fourth quarter and fellow rookie Rudy Carpenter will likely close the game for the Cowboys.<o></o><o
> </o>The Raiders, surprisingly enough, have a talented quarterback corps. They will open the game with JaMarcus Russell and he will likely see most, if not all, of the first quarter and may even see time into the second quarter. Veteran Jeff Garcia will replace Russell and play the remainder of the first half and possibly see some time in the third quarter. Former NFL starters Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye will see some time in the second half for the Raiders.
8/13/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
PRESEASON WEEK 1: WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING
You regulars know that I devote each weekend report during the regular season to a look at what the sharps are thinking about that week's NFL games.
I won't go in depth like that through the full Preseason. There are other things to talk about...and so many games are centered right near a field goal that it should be easy for YOU to figure out what the sharps are thinking.
In fact, let me outline that for you now. We have several games like that this week. It will save me some space today if I don't have to repeat the same story in all of those different games!
When the line is near 3 in the preseason...
*A line of 2.5 that's stayed solid at 2.5 without moving suggests that the sharps like the UNDERDOG. Obviously, if they liked the favorite at -2.5, they would have hit it hard to close to the key number of three. They didn't hit it. And, the public will almost always bet favorites at -2.5 just out of habit. For the line to stay at 2.5 without moving tells you there's a tug of war that has the sharps on the dog. They think the points won't matter because they're team is going to win outright.
*A line that keep hopping between 2.5 and 3 is one that's driving oddsmakers nuts. Sharps are hitting the dog at +3 (probably with big plays because so many preseason games are true coin flips), but others are jumping in on the favorite at -2.5. There isn't a tug of war here because some sharps are on the favorite below a field goal. Sportsbook operators are hoping the game doesn't land EXACTLY on three...because they'll have to pay off everyone who bet the favorite -2.5, but all the dog +3 action will push. A true nightmare scenario, particularly if it happens in a few games on the same weekend.
*A line that stays at -3 usually is either getting no action, or is splitting the action. These will be rare in the preseason I think because sharps love taking the full field goal whenever they can get it. Many believe home field advantage is just worth 1-2 points in August...so they gladly take +3. During the regular season, a solid -3 will typically represent a tug of war between sharps and squares (the general public).
*A line of 3.5 that stays solid without moving suggests the sharps like the FAVORITE. This is much more common in college or regular season pro football. When sharps love an underdog, a line of 3.5 won't be there long at all. For the line to STAY over a field goal, there has to be sentiment on the favorite. Squares are a little less likely to lay the hook too. When squares bet dogs, it's often at +3.5 because they're saying, 'If I only lose by a field goal I win.' Becoming a sharp partially involves realizing that any line that stays at +3.5 for a long time is a strike against an underdog bet in that game. Sharps move the line off of 3.5 when they like a dog.
Okay, with that in mind, let's look at what's been happing with the lines in this first full week of NFL Preseason action.
THURSDAY
*Washington at Baltimore: Line has been jumping between 2.5 and 3 for host Baltimore.
*New England at Philadelphia: Same story here for host Philadelphia as we lead up to game day.
*Arizona at Pittsburgh: the line has mostly stayed solid at Pittsburgh -3, though I've seen some sharp action on the dog as we get closer to game day.
*Dallas at Oakland: Early money moved the opener of Dallas -1 all the way to Oakland -2. That looks like a big move, but it didn't cross any key numbers. Note that the line did stop before reaching a field goal...so the sharps were satisfied with their early position. The public likes betting Dallas, so that may create a small tug of war on game day. It's not a national TV game though...and square betting action is light early in the Preseason.
The theme for Thursday is that sharps are looking to take +3 in the first three games, but liked Oakland near pick-em in the nightcap.
FRIDAY
*St. Louis at NY Jets: This line has largely stayed at the Jets -3.5, which is rare for a preseason game. A few sharps may take a flyer on the dog...but the sentiment is clearly for the host thus far based on the lack of line movement at 3.5.
*Minnesota at Indianapolis: There was big sharp action here on Minnesota +3 on the opener, and at +2 and +1 as well. The Colts are famous for blowing off Preseason games, and the new coach is a disciple of the prior coach. Sharps expect Minnesota to win this game, and were happy to get points as gravy on the early numbers.
*Cincinnati at New Orleans: New Orleans has mostly stayed at -3.5, but I'm seeing some interest on the dog as we get closer to game day. There's more interest in Cincinnati than St. Louis in the way I read the tea leaves on these Friday games with the hook.
*Denver at San Francisco: Mostly solid at San Francisco -3. Some action developing on the dog. I should note here that many sharps love Denver Under its team total this year because the team lost Jay Cutler in the offseason and has a killer schedule. Many voices I respect are projecting a disaster for the Broncos.
SATURDAY
*Atlanta at Detroit: We're now at a place where the line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Detroit. I should note though that the game opened pick-em...so there was initially a lot of sharp action on the Lions and their new head coach. Some are buying back on Atlanta at +3...and it could turn out that the line ends up settling at 2.5 on game day. Sharps got in early at the low price, so many will be rooting for the Lions here.
*Chicago at Buffalo: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Buffalo. A lot of people love betting teams with an extra week head start. Buffalo has that here. The edge used to be a monster...but teams place so little priority on the Preseason now that the advantage has faded away. Maybe coming in off a loss will inspire the Bills. Note that Chicago is a popular sharp team this year because of the addition of Jay Cutler. Sharps probably would be betting Buffalo against most other teams with that head start advantage in preparation.
*Tampa Bay at Tennessee: The line has been sitting at Tennessee -4 most of the time. Clearly there's no love for the underdog Bucs. The Titans have that extra week of preparation as well. There may not be a lot of money on Tennessee right now, but there's certainly sharp respect for the Titans because this line isn't moving toward the dog.
*Houston at Kansas City: The line here is either 1.5 or -2 for the host Kansas City. Since we're below the magic number of three...that tells you that sharps like Houston or nothing in this one. Nobody's driving the cheap home favorite up to a field goal.
*Cleveland at Green Bay: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Green Bay.
*Seattle at San Diego: This line has stayed over a field goal most of the week...sitting at either San Diego -4 or -3.5. Some action on the dog has been showing up though...so we'll have to monitor this one up until kickoff.
MONDAY
*Jacksonville at Miami: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Miami. There hasn't been as much action yet in this game as some of the others...but it's further off on the calendar. I expect it to be bet actively on game day as the excitement for football continues to build.
*Carolina at NY Giants: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host New York. Same story here. This is a national TV game set for ESPN...the first Monday Night TV game of the season. That will generate a lot of game day action...that would well set up a tug of war between the sharps on the dog and the squares on the favorite.
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
PRESEASON WEEK 1: WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING
You regulars know that I devote each weekend report during the regular season to a look at what the sharps are thinking about that week's NFL games.
I won't go in depth like that through the full Preseason. There are other things to talk about...and so many games are centered right near a field goal that it should be easy for YOU to figure out what the sharps are thinking.
In fact, let me outline that for you now. We have several games like that this week. It will save me some space today if I don't have to repeat the same story in all of those different games!
When the line is near 3 in the preseason...
*A line of 2.5 that's stayed solid at 2.5 without moving suggests that the sharps like the UNDERDOG. Obviously, if they liked the favorite at -2.5, they would have hit it hard to close to the key number of three. They didn't hit it. And, the public will almost always bet favorites at -2.5 just out of habit. For the line to stay at 2.5 without moving tells you there's a tug of war that has the sharps on the dog. They think the points won't matter because they're team is going to win outright.
*A line that keep hopping between 2.5 and 3 is one that's driving oddsmakers nuts. Sharps are hitting the dog at +3 (probably with big plays because so many preseason games are true coin flips), but others are jumping in on the favorite at -2.5. There isn't a tug of war here because some sharps are on the favorite below a field goal. Sportsbook operators are hoping the game doesn't land EXACTLY on three...because they'll have to pay off everyone who bet the favorite -2.5, but all the dog +3 action will push. A true nightmare scenario, particularly if it happens in a few games on the same weekend.
*A line that stays at -3 usually is either getting no action, or is splitting the action. These will be rare in the preseason I think because sharps love taking the full field goal whenever they can get it. Many believe home field advantage is just worth 1-2 points in August...so they gladly take +3. During the regular season, a solid -3 will typically represent a tug of war between sharps and squares (the general public).
*A line of 3.5 that stays solid without moving suggests the sharps like the FAVORITE. This is much more common in college or regular season pro football. When sharps love an underdog, a line of 3.5 won't be there long at all. For the line to STAY over a field goal, there has to be sentiment on the favorite. Squares are a little less likely to lay the hook too. When squares bet dogs, it's often at +3.5 because they're saying, 'If I only lose by a field goal I win.' Becoming a sharp partially involves realizing that any line that stays at +3.5 for a long time is a strike against an underdog bet in that game. Sharps move the line off of 3.5 when they like a dog.
Okay, with that in mind, let's look at what's been happing with the lines in this first full week of NFL Preseason action.
THURSDAY
*Washington at Baltimore: Line has been jumping between 2.5 and 3 for host Baltimore.
*New England at Philadelphia: Same story here for host Philadelphia as we lead up to game day.
*Arizona at Pittsburgh: the line has mostly stayed solid at Pittsburgh -3, though I've seen some sharp action on the dog as we get closer to game day.
*Dallas at Oakland: Early money moved the opener of Dallas -1 all the way to Oakland -2. That looks like a big move, but it didn't cross any key numbers. Note that the line did stop before reaching a field goal...so the sharps were satisfied with their early position. The public likes betting Dallas, so that may create a small tug of war on game day. It's not a national TV game though...and square betting action is light early in the Preseason.
The theme for Thursday is that sharps are looking to take +3 in the first three games, but liked Oakland near pick-em in the nightcap.
FRIDAY
*St. Louis at NY Jets: This line has largely stayed at the Jets -3.5, which is rare for a preseason game. A few sharps may take a flyer on the dog...but the sentiment is clearly for the host thus far based on the lack of line movement at 3.5.
*Minnesota at Indianapolis: There was big sharp action here on Minnesota +3 on the opener, and at +2 and +1 as well. The Colts are famous for blowing off Preseason games, and the new coach is a disciple of the prior coach. Sharps expect Minnesota to win this game, and were happy to get points as gravy on the early numbers.
*Cincinnati at New Orleans: New Orleans has mostly stayed at -3.5, but I'm seeing some interest on the dog as we get closer to game day. There's more interest in Cincinnati than St. Louis in the way I read the tea leaves on these Friday games with the hook.
*Denver at San Francisco: Mostly solid at San Francisco -3. Some action developing on the dog. I should note here that many sharps love Denver Under its team total this year because the team lost Jay Cutler in the offseason and has a killer schedule. Many voices I respect are projecting a disaster for the Broncos.
SATURDAY
*Atlanta at Detroit: We're now at a place where the line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Detroit. I should note though that the game opened pick-em...so there was initially a lot of sharp action on the Lions and their new head coach. Some are buying back on Atlanta at +3...and it could turn out that the line ends up settling at 2.5 on game day. Sharps got in early at the low price, so many will be rooting for the Lions here.
*Chicago at Buffalo: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Buffalo. A lot of people love betting teams with an extra week head start. Buffalo has that here. The edge used to be a monster...but teams place so little priority on the Preseason now that the advantage has faded away. Maybe coming in off a loss will inspire the Bills. Note that Chicago is a popular sharp team this year because of the addition of Jay Cutler. Sharps probably would be betting Buffalo against most other teams with that head start advantage in preparation.
*Tampa Bay at Tennessee: The line has been sitting at Tennessee -4 most of the time. Clearly there's no love for the underdog Bucs. The Titans have that extra week of preparation as well. There may not be a lot of money on Tennessee right now, but there's certainly sharp respect for the Titans because this line isn't moving toward the dog.
*Houston at Kansas City: The line here is either 1.5 or -2 for the host Kansas City. Since we're below the magic number of three...that tells you that sharps like Houston or nothing in this one. Nobody's driving the cheap home favorite up to a field goal.
*Cleveland at Green Bay: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Green Bay.
*Seattle at San Diego: This line has stayed over a field goal most of the week...sitting at either San Diego -4 or -3.5. Some action on the dog has been showing up though...so we'll have to monitor this one up until kickoff.
MONDAY
*Jacksonville at Miami: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host Miami. There hasn't been as much action yet in this game as some of the others...but it's further off on the calendar. I expect it to be bet actively on game day as the excitement for football continues to build.
*Carolina at NY Giants: The line is hopping between 2.5 and 3 for the host New York. Same story here. This is a national TV game set for ESPN...the first Monday Night TV game of the season. That will generate a lot of game day action...that would well set up a tug of war between the sharps on the dog and the squares on the favorite.
