I posted it in the myline thread below this one. Here the link. http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=352051&page=43&p=10740008#post10740008
HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING NFL WEEK 5
CHICAGO AT CAROLINA: The big news here is that the game hasn’t moved off the opener of Carolina -2.5. If sharps liked the host, they would have pounded the Panthers just below the key number of three. That’s how far Carolina has fallen respect-wise after their losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Sharps don’t trust the defense any more, and they were already skeptical of Cam Newton playing with bad ribs. Chicago may not be a popular bet at +2.5 for the Wise Guys, but Chicago +8.5 will be heavily played in two-team teasers because it crosses both the 3 and the 7. Not much interest on the total. As usual, we’ll only mention Over/Unders from this point forward when there’s been a move of at least a point.
CLEVELAND AT TENNESSEE: Slight support for Tennessee at the opener of -1. But, we’re only seeing Titans -1.5 or -2 in most places as we go to press. Those are such low priority numbers that it’s barely a relevant move. That’s happening below the key number of three. REAL support would have tested the key number more. Sharps will be looking to use Cleveland in teasers because they’re in the underdog strike point just like Chicago is as long as the number is at +1.5 or +2. Remember that the Wise Guys become more aggressive with teasers in terms of betting unit size about a month into a season because the original lines will be more accurate in terms of what happens on the field…which means the points you take in teasers are more valuable.
ST. LOUIS AT PHILADELPHIA: Strong support for St. Louis, as an opener of +8 was bet down to the key number of seven. And, it’s stayed there! There wasn’t a bounce off the seven from any Eagles money. Sources tell us that sharps haven’t been impressed at all with the Eagles offensive consistency since the latter stages of the Indianapolis game. Another team, like Carolina, that’s dropped in Power Ratings (the Eagles were only in last week’s game at SF because of three non-offensive touchdowns).
ATLANTA AT NY GIANTS: While the Panthers and Eagles are falling, the Giants are rising. They opened the week and -3, and were bet up to -3.5 and -4. It takes a lot of money to move off the three in the NFL. Sharps did flood the market at the key number. Though, stores testing Atlanta +4.5 did see Falcons money come in at that time. So, the percentages have the sharps on NYG -3 but Atlanta +4.5. Because interest in NYG is tied to their improving offense, it’s not surprising that the Over was bet as well. An opener of 49 is up to 50.5 at press time. It may reach 51 or more if weather isn’t going to be a factor in this early Sunday kick. Atlanta plays high scoring games, and now the Giants have an offense that’s finding the end zone.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: Throw New Orleans on the list of NFC teams that’s falling in the Power Ratings. An opener of Saints -11 was bet down to -10…and, as we saw with the Eagles, there wasn’t a bounce at the key number even though the favorite is generally loved by squares. New Orleans didn’t look great in a home game they barely covered vs. Minnesota two weeks ago, and has been awful away from home. Sharps aren’t impressed! We’re hearing that the Wise Guys were impressed with TB’s fourth quarter rally in Pittsburgh last week. Don’t be surprised if this develops into a game day tug-of-war between the public on NO -10, and sharps on Tampa Bay at +10.5 or higher. The total has been bet down from 49 to 48, largely because the Saints offense isn’t scaring people like it used to.
HOUSTON AT DALLAS: Dallas has become the hot new NFC team for sharps because they improved on recent good form this past Sunday vs. New Orleans. An opener of Dallas -4 has been bet up to -6. Support did stop at the six, but didn’t bounce back downward toward the Texans. We’re hearing that Houston money is waiting to see if the public pushes this line higher before kickoff. Dog backers would love +7, and would take +6.5 if that’s the best they’ll see. Cowboys money is very happy to be in at -4 and -5 given how the offense is clicking in recent games. The Over/Under is up a point from 46 to 47 because of that recent scoring consistency.
BUFFALO AT DETROIT: Not much betting interest at all here. Sharps don’t want to gamble with Kyle Orton taking over for Buffalo. And, they don’t want to ask Detroit to play another great game in a row after the Lions covered vs. Green Bay and the NY Jets. If the public drives the line up to Detroit -7.5, we’re hearing that the Wise Guys would fade that move with Buffalo +7.5, but would use the Lions in two-team teasers at -1.5.
BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Indianapolis was hit hard enough to push the opener off of -3 and up to -3.5. Again, it takes strong support to move off the three in the NFL. So, sharps did hit this one hard even though it’s only a half point move. And, there wasn’t a buyback on the Ravens. We are hearing that dog money is waiting to see if +4 becomes available on game day. But, what could have been “dog money” was actually invested on the Over. Sharps impressed with Baltimore’s recent offense under new coordinator Gary Kubiack hit Over 46.5, 47, 47.5, and 48 while driving the number up to 49. So, in essence, Indy money is on the Colts -3, while Baltimore money is on Over.
PITTSBURGH AT JACKSONVILLE: Not much interest here because sharps want no part of the Jaguars until they play a good game. But, Pittsburgh has been an untrustworthy favorite both Tampa Bay and Cleveland. An opener of Pittsburgh -6 has mostly stood pat, though some stores are testing -6.5 to see if there are any nibbles. The total has been bet up from 45.5 to 47 because of Pittsburgh’s suspect second-half defense.
ARIZONA AT DENVER: Looks like we may have an intense game-day tug-of-war between Denver -7 and Arizona +7.5. That was put in play when the opener of Denver -8.5 was bet down toward the key number. Stores testing the seven see Broncos money come in pretty hard. Those staying at 7.5 see Arizona backers invest confidently. The Over/Under is down a point to a point and a half from an opener of 49.5. We’re now seeing 48 in most places because the math guys made it 48. Some stores have tested 47.5 in anticipation of possible weather influences.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN FRANCISCO: Only a half point move here, but it was an important one. San Francisco opened at -6.5. Instead of the game being bet toward the key number of seven, it was bet AWAY to Kansas City +6. Obviously the sharps don’t like the Niners or the game would have moved to seven instantly. They like the Chiefs so much it moved away from the seven! The Chiefs have played very well since that opening loss to Tennessee. Sources tell us that sharps became believers by the end of the first quarter of the New England game this past Monday Night.
NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: Similar story here, in that a half point move was a big one. In this case, it was the opener of San Diego -7 moving down to NY Jets +6.5. The game moved off the key number and didn’t bounce back. That tells you that Jets money came in right away…and there wasn’t any Chargers money waiting to exploit the move. Sharps hate Geno Smith, but love this Jets defense when getting at least a touchdown. Note that the money did stop after the move. Sharps like the Jets +7, not the Jets +6.5 because the seven is such a common projected ending for the scoreboard margin.
CINCINNATI AT NEW ENGLAND: The big story here was what happened before the game went up. It’s rare to see the market disrespect New England to any meaningful degree. They were still laying a field goal to Kansas City last Monday. But, after that debacle, this game opened at pick-em. That means the market had Cincinnati Power Rated about three points better than New England on a neutral field. BIG adjustment! Then, sharps bet the Bengals at pick-em! We’re now seeing Cincinnati -1, as there’s no public interest in investing in the Pats right now. Squares learned their lesson in the non-covers against Oakland and Kansas City.
SEATTLE AT WASHINGTON (Monday Night): Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up here near the key number of seven next Monday. An opener of Seattle -8.5 was bet down to Washington +7.5. Stores that test the seven see Seattle money come in. So, even before the public is involved, we’re seeing sharps “tug” over Seattle -7 and Washington +7.5 or more. The public will very likely want Seattle on Monday given Washington’s poor showing the last time they were on TV (plus Seattle’s coming off a bye). Sharps who want Washington +7.5 will be able to bet to their heart’s content in the hours leading up to kickoff.
CHICAGO AT CAROLINA: The big news here is that the game hasn’t moved off the opener of Carolina -2.5. If sharps liked the host, they would have pounded the Panthers just below the key number of three. That’s how far Carolina has fallen respect-wise after their losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Sharps don’t trust the defense any more, and they were already skeptical of Cam Newton playing with bad ribs. Chicago may not be a popular bet at +2.5 for the Wise Guys, but Chicago +8.5 will be heavily played in two-team teasers because it crosses both the 3 and the 7. Not much interest on the total. As usual, we’ll only mention Over/Unders from this point forward when there’s been a move of at least a point.
CLEVELAND AT TENNESSEE: Slight support for Tennessee at the opener of -1. But, we’re only seeing Titans -1.5 or -2 in most places as we go to press. Those are such low priority numbers that it’s barely a relevant move. That’s happening below the key number of three. REAL support would have tested the key number more. Sharps will be looking to use Cleveland in teasers because they’re in the underdog strike point just like Chicago is as long as the number is at +1.5 or +2. Remember that the Wise Guys become more aggressive with teasers in terms of betting unit size about a month into a season because the original lines will be more accurate in terms of what happens on the field…which means the points you take in teasers are more valuable.
ST. LOUIS AT PHILADELPHIA: Strong support for St. Louis, as an opener of +8 was bet down to the key number of seven. And, it’s stayed there! There wasn’t a bounce off the seven from any Eagles money. Sources tell us that sharps haven’t been impressed at all with the Eagles offensive consistency since the latter stages of the Indianapolis game. Another team, like Carolina, that’s dropped in Power Ratings (the Eagles were only in last week’s game at SF because of three non-offensive touchdowns).
ATLANTA AT NY GIANTS: While the Panthers and Eagles are falling, the Giants are rising. They opened the week and -3, and were bet up to -3.5 and -4. It takes a lot of money to move off the three in the NFL. Sharps did flood the market at the key number. Though, stores testing Atlanta +4.5 did see Falcons money come in at that time. So, the percentages have the sharps on NYG -3 but Atlanta +4.5. Because interest in NYG is tied to their improving offense, it’s not surprising that the Over was bet as well. An opener of 49 is up to 50.5 at press time. It may reach 51 or more if weather isn’t going to be a factor in this early Sunday kick. Atlanta plays high scoring games, and now the Giants have an offense that’s finding the end zone.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: Throw New Orleans on the list of NFC teams that’s falling in the Power Ratings. An opener of Saints -11 was bet down to -10…and, as we saw with the Eagles, there wasn’t a bounce at the key number even though the favorite is generally loved by squares. New Orleans didn’t look great in a home game they barely covered vs. Minnesota two weeks ago, and has been awful away from home. Sharps aren’t impressed! We’re hearing that the Wise Guys were impressed with TB’s fourth quarter rally in Pittsburgh last week. Don’t be surprised if this develops into a game day tug-of-war between the public on NO -10, and sharps on Tampa Bay at +10.5 or higher. The total has been bet down from 49 to 48, largely because the Saints offense isn’t scaring people like it used to.
HOUSTON AT DALLAS: Dallas has become the hot new NFC team for sharps because they improved on recent good form this past Sunday vs. New Orleans. An opener of Dallas -4 has been bet up to -6. Support did stop at the six, but didn’t bounce back downward toward the Texans. We’re hearing that Houston money is waiting to see if the public pushes this line higher before kickoff. Dog backers would love +7, and would take +6.5 if that’s the best they’ll see. Cowboys money is very happy to be in at -4 and -5 given how the offense is clicking in recent games. The Over/Under is up a point from 46 to 47 because of that recent scoring consistency.
BUFFALO AT DETROIT: Not much betting interest at all here. Sharps don’t want to gamble with Kyle Orton taking over for Buffalo. And, they don’t want to ask Detroit to play another great game in a row after the Lions covered vs. Green Bay and the NY Jets. If the public drives the line up to Detroit -7.5, we’re hearing that the Wise Guys would fade that move with Buffalo +7.5, but would use the Lions in two-team teasers at -1.5.
BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Indianapolis was hit hard enough to push the opener off of -3 and up to -3.5. Again, it takes strong support to move off the three in the NFL. So, sharps did hit this one hard even though it’s only a half point move. And, there wasn’t a buyback on the Ravens. We are hearing that dog money is waiting to see if +4 becomes available on game day. But, what could have been “dog money” was actually invested on the Over. Sharps impressed with Baltimore’s recent offense under new coordinator Gary Kubiack hit Over 46.5, 47, 47.5, and 48 while driving the number up to 49. So, in essence, Indy money is on the Colts -3, while Baltimore money is on Over.
PITTSBURGH AT JACKSONVILLE: Not much interest here because sharps want no part of the Jaguars until they play a good game. But, Pittsburgh has been an untrustworthy favorite both Tampa Bay and Cleveland. An opener of Pittsburgh -6 has mostly stood pat, though some stores are testing -6.5 to see if there are any nibbles. The total has been bet up from 45.5 to 47 because of Pittsburgh’s suspect second-half defense.
ARIZONA AT DENVER: Looks like we may have an intense game-day tug-of-war between Denver -7 and Arizona +7.5. That was put in play when the opener of Denver -8.5 was bet down toward the key number. Stores testing the seven see Broncos money come in pretty hard. Those staying at 7.5 see Arizona backers invest confidently. The Over/Under is down a point to a point and a half from an opener of 49.5. We’re now seeing 48 in most places because the math guys made it 48. Some stores have tested 47.5 in anticipation of possible weather influences.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN FRANCISCO: Only a half point move here, but it was an important one. San Francisco opened at -6.5. Instead of the game being bet toward the key number of seven, it was bet AWAY to Kansas City +6. Obviously the sharps don’t like the Niners or the game would have moved to seven instantly. They like the Chiefs so much it moved away from the seven! The Chiefs have played very well since that opening loss to Tennessee. Sources tell us that sharps became believers by the end of the first quarter of the New England game this past Monday Night.
NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: Similar story here, in that a half point move was a big one. In this case, it was the opener of San Diego -7 moving down to NY Jets +6.5. The game moved off the key number and didn’t bounce back. That tells you that Jets money came in right away…and there wasn’t any Chargers money waiting to exploit the move. Sharps hate Geno Smith, but love this Jets defense when getting at least a touchdown. Note that the money did stop after the move. Sharps like the Jets +7, not the Jets +6.5 because the seven is such a common projected ending for the scoreboard margin.
CINCINNATI AT NEW ENGLAND: The big story here was what happened before the game went up. It’s rare to see the market disrespect New England to any meaningful degree. They were still laying a field goal to Kansas City last Monday. But, after that debacle, this game opened at pick-em. That means the market had Cincinnati Power Rated about three points better than New England on a neutral field. BIG adjustment! Then, sharps bet the Bengals at pick-em! We’re now seeing Cincinnati -1, as there’s no public interest in investing in the Pats right now. Squares learned their lesson in the non-covers against Oakland and Kansas City.
SEATTLE AT WASHINGTON (Monday Night): Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up here near the key number of seven next Monday. An opener of Seattle -8.5 was bet down to Washington +7.5. Stores that test the seven see Seattle money come in. So, even before the public is involved, we’re seeing sharps “tug” over Seattle -7 and Washington +7.5 or more. The public will very likely want Seattle on Monday given Washington’s poor showing the last time they were on TV (plus Seattle’s coming off a bye). Sharps who want Washington +7.5 will be able to bet to their heart’s content in the hours leading up to kickoff.
Dal -6...................$2200.00. -105 (note I bet this gm on monday at -4 after knowing it was a 411 play.) still good at -6 will grade at -6
Bal +3.5...................$800.00 -105
Pit -6........................$800.00 -108
DET -7......................$800.00 -108
two more coming
best to all
Ace
Bal +3.5...................$800.00 -105
Pit -6........................$800.00 -108
DET -7......................$800.00 -108
two more coming
best to all
Ace
