Exbookie want to help the players wild card week-end

[rfb]

hi ace...happy new year

i can see where you like atl.....they hold the edge statistically....will the rookie qb hold up under the pressure vs the old pro? ari has limped in to this game but they are still at home.....myline and the other system i use are on opposite sides of this one...

both systems do pick the ravens with a lean to the chargers as well as one system selects them by 5 the other at the number (1)...systems also pick opposite sides in the eagles and vikes....both pick philly..but one by 2.5 the other by 6.5....

best of luck to you....

and go ravens & chargers

 

[Broncos625]

Wow, I'd say this is the first time I've felt opposite of almost all of your picks. The only one I agree with is Phily.

 

[LIONSJUNKIE]

:toast:

 

[dirtymoose]

looks good ace! like em all but SD. lets get em this weekend!

i love philly this weekend Mcnabb and philly is/are due

 

[uscmd]

Ace.....Happy new year!! Health and prosperity to you and yours.

I hate to say it, but I agree with moose. Love all but SD. Rivers is a punk, one perceived injustice from a total meltdown. Hes a time bomb.

bol my friend

 

[skidmrk]

Looks good ace.Good luck.


:toast:

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

Love the Balt-Miami over. I'm pissed I missed out on 36.5, though. Do you see the line dropping back to 37 at least?

 

[ACE-ACE]

write-up

Atlanta (-2) over Arizona (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)
The Falcons are just too tough and too rugged for the Cardinals. Arizona played the weakest schedule of any of the teams in the playoffs. They looked great beating up on the weak teams in their division, but they were blown out by most of the above .500 nondivisional teams that they faced. Atlanta has road wins over San Diego, Minnesota and Green Bay this year. They won't be intimidated by playing in the desert or playing on a big stage. Arizona has completely mailed it in during the last month of the year and they have no momentum. That's key this time of year. Atlanta is riding high and I look for Michael Turner to roll over a soft Arizona defense.

Atlanta (-0.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)
This is a first half play. I like the Falcons to get out to a fast start and I think they are going to dominate this one from start to finish. You can't win in the playoffs if you can't run the ball and the Cardinals are ranked No. 32 in the league in rushing. That won't work.

San Diego (+1) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)
The Chargers may not have impressed many people with their run to the playoffs, but they are here now and they come into this game with a lot of momentum. It's very, very difficult to beat the same team twice in one season if the teams are of equal talent. Indy already got the Chargers once and I don't think they will do it again. Especially because this is a different Chargers team that they are facing. San Diego has had Peyton Manning's number over the last few years and have beaten the Colts three of the last four times they've met since 2005. The Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games and won't lose twice to the same team on their turf.

Baltimore (-3.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)
I know that I am taking San Diego because I like their momentum and because I don't think they will lose to the same team at home twice. But that's because I think they have equal talent and experience to the Colts. I think Miami will be beaten by the Ravens at home twice in one year because I don't think that they equal talent. Baltimore dominated the first meeting and I expect them to do the same thing here. They are too experienced and too physical on both sides of the ball and Miami won't be able to hold up. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in playoff road games and have covered five of six road games overall. Miami had a nice close to the year but they didn't beat any good teams the last two months of the year. The books are begging you to take the Dolphins with that extra half point. But this one will be a blowout.

Philadelphia (-3) over Minnesota (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)
Andy Reid has never lost his first playoff game and I think he ets the better of Brad Childress, who really hasn't proven himself as a great coach. The Vikings don't have stability at the quarterback position and you can't win in January if you aren't getting top quarterback play. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS on the road and Minnesota is 3-7 ATS at home and I think both trends continue. The Eagles will light up a wounded Vikings defense and this one will be comfortable in the fourth quarter. Take the Eagles.

 

[ACE-ACE]

from my friend Nick

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S WILDCARD GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Time to take a break from the college bowls and think about pro football. The sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) haven't been very happy with their postseason results yet in the colleges. They're GLAD to have this break![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You probably noticed that many of the biggest early movers in the colleges didn't do well this year. That was particularly true on bowl totals. The games that jumped a few points up didn't go Over. The big Under moves, like Penn State/USC, saw a ton of scoring. The most popular team side play right out of the gate was Georgia Tech. They never had a chance. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps historically have done very well in the NFL Playoffs. They're looking for a chance to make some scores in the four games this weekend. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Unfortunately, the schedule didn't really line up in their wheelhouse. Historically, squares (the general public) bet on home favorites and Overs in the playoffs. Sharps come back against those line moves and take dogs and Unders. The public usually loses (not always in the playoffs, but in most years), so the sharps earn a nice profit in the month of January as a general rule. In this first week though, there are NO home favorites![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It wasn't obvious who the squares were going to bet on in any of the games, so sharps took early position where they thought they had an edge against the opener. If the public creates additional opportunities over the weekend, the sharps will step in with more authority. It's very important that you watch for line moves this weekend with that in mind. Any initial surge is likely to come from the public...with any reversals representing sharp sentiment. That's how you'll know for sure on game day mornings how the sharps are betting. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's what's happened so far...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ATLANTA AT ARIZONA:
The sharps took Arizona at the opener of +2½, and at +2 and +1½ as well. The line is sitting at +1 in most places as I write this. The fact that the line didn't to up to a field goal represents fairly strong sentiment for the Cardinals to at least keep it close. I've told you that often. If a game moves AWAY from a critical number, it's a big deal. The favorite hasn't flipped here though...so it's not like the sharps are in love with Kurt Warner and the Cards. They liked having quarterback experience, home field, and a couple of points. They may have also figured that the public would be thinking the say way when they bet on Saturday...so they took what they could get on the opener. The public isn't likely to pound a rookie quarterback for a road favorite that isn't a public team. "Get in early"at the best number was the general thought process. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So, Arizona (+) would be the sharp side here. Just remember that the money kind of dried up once the line came down to +1. I think it would take a line movement from public money to get the sharps involved any further. The total hasn't moved from 51 in a climate controlled environment. Past history would suggest that the public will bet the Over (because they always bet the Over unless it's a blizzard), with the sharps coming in on Under 52 or more if the line goes up from public money. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Both of these are public teams, so it's hard to know who the squares will be betting all day Saturday. Had each been a home favorite, their would have been a 1-2 point tax (maybe 3) for the honor of betting the Colts and Chargers. With them playing each other, that cancels out. San Diego opened as a one-point favorite...but that got bet to Indy -1 fairly quickly. Some places have seen some buy back, so we're looking at pick-em or Indianapolis -1 in most places as I write this. Overtime games can't end in a tie, so +1 to -1 isn't much of a move. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Who do the sharps like? I'm getting mixed signals in my conversations with respected bettors. This is truly a game where the public will decide if the sharps get involved. If there is a bandwagon effect from squares on game day, then sharps will go against the tide in what they truly see as a toss-up. If that doesn't happen, this may just be a dead spot in the schedule. Sharps will look for quarter, first half, second half, or player proposition possibilities rather than the full game. Sharps look everywhere for an edge! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Colts have played several games that went right down to the wire. Only a turnover implosion from one team or the other would likely prevent that here. The total hasn't moved yet in this game either. I have some thoughts I'll be sharing with my clients in this one. It will be based on my own handicapping rather than sharp sentiment. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI:[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The sharps hit Baltimore pretty aggressively here as we move to the Sunday games. The line opened at Baltimore -3, and the sportsbooks kept increasing the juice (vigorish) as sharp money was very one sided on the Ravens. It went to -120, -130, higher in spots...then finally the line pushed up to -3½ and didn't come back down again. You know what that means. We've got a game moving away from a critical number with no resistance. The squares like Baltimore and like them strong. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why the sentiment? The general thought is that Miami is a pretender from a very weak division. This is a team that kept winning ugly against a very soft schedule all season. If you have trouble scoring points vs. a soft schedule, how are you going to beat Baltimore? Miami couldn't do that on this field during the regular season. Sharps expect the Ravens defense to dominate the flow of the game this time around too. Based on all evidence before the weekend arrived, Baltimore is the strongest sharp play this weekend. Just remember that we're talking about real strength at the opener of -3. You probably won't get to play that line on Sunday. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA:
The second most popular play of the weekend for the sharps was Philadelphia. This is basically a replay of the Baltimore situation in terms of how the money is coming in. It just started a half point lower. Philadelphia opened at -2½...went to -3...and is now seeing the vigorish rise past -120 up to -130. It's going to cost you to lay points with the Eagles in the weekend finale. You'll either be laying 3½ or a very high vigorish on -3. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In this particular game, the sharps were concerned with public money. The public is much more likely to bet on Donovan McNabb at a cheap price than rookie Joe Flacco of Baltimore. The closest thing to a public team at an appealing price in the minds of squares would be Philadelphia at -3 over Minnesota. Indy/San Diego has two public teams playing each other. The other two games don't feature teams who have caught the public's fancy yet. Philly was likely to be a big public play, so the sharps made sure they got in quickly at -2½ and at -3 (-110). [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Really the ONLY total move of note this weekend was in this game. The opener of 43½ has fallen to 41½ because of the caliber of the two defenses...and that fact that both quarterbacks have struggled vs. good defenses. McNabb's been inconsistent at best when facing tough opponents. The Vikings really don't have any great options when stepping up in class themselves. Totals guys are looking for a defensive-minded game...with the knowledge that McNabb knows how to run clock with a lead too. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All told, it's a fairly quiet opening salvo from the sharps. We could see more intensity closer to kickoff if there is public money to fade. If not, the sharps may come out firing next week when higher quality teams are on the field. [/FONT]

 

[ACE-ACE]

CANDY......................

ATLANTA (11 - 5) at ARIZONA (9 - 7) - 1/3/2009, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 8) - 1/3/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, January 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (11 - 5) at MIAMI (11 - 5) - 1/4/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
BALTIMORE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6 - 1) at MINNESOTA (10 - 6) - 1/4/2009, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 126-88 ATS (+29.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Atlanta at Arizona, 4:30 ET

Atlanta:
0-8 ATS off BB SU wins
19-30 ATS after a win by 6 or less points

Arizona:
12-4 Over as an underdog
7-1 Over in home games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:00 ET

Indianapolis:
6-1 Under if the total is 49.5 or higher
4-10 ATS vs. San Diego

San Diego:
19-8 ATS vs. conference
6-0 ATS at home off SU win

=============================================

Sunday, January 4th

AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: CBS
Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET

Baltimore:
12-4 ATS this season
8-2 ATS off SU win

Miami:
3-12 ATS in home games
4-14 ATS off division win as underdog

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: FOX
Philadelphia at Minnesota, 4:30 ET

Philadelphia:
10-1 ATS off division game
5-1 ATS vs. Minnesota

Minnesota:
0-6 ATS off home game
8-1 Over off BB ATS losses


Trend Sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saturday, January 3

4:30 PM ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Arizona is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home


8:00 PM INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
San Diego is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home




Sunday, January 4

1:00 PM BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore


4:30 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. MINNESOTA
Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Tips and Trends
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals [NBC | 4:30 PM ET]

Falcons (-1, O/U 50.5): Atlanta is back in the playoffs after tying the biggest turnaround in franchise history, going from 4-12 last season to 11-5 this year. Most of that credit is due to the offensive combination of NFL Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan under center and Pro Bowl RB Michael Turner behind him. “I’m certainly flattered,” Ryan said. “There’s a number of guys who had great rookie seasons this year, so to even be mentioned in that light is nice. It’s certainly a great honor, and I think it speaks to what we did as a team this year.” While neither player was with the team a year ago, rookie head coach Mike Smith also did a fantastic job putting all of the pieces together.

Falcons are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Key Injuries - WR Harry Douglas (concussion) is questionable.
DL Jamaal Anderson (ankle) is questionable.
S Lawyer Milloy (back) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Cardinals: Arizona is in the playoffs for the first time in a decade, with QB Kurt Warner starting all 16 games for the first time since 2001. “It’s been a long time in waiting,” Warner said. “So I definitely appreciate it and appreciate what we accomplished in St. Louis a lot more now, I’m sure, than I did when I was going through it.” The only thing better for the Cardinals would obviously be getting a postseason victory in their first home playoff game since winning the NFL championship as the Chicago Cardinals back in 1947.

Cardinals are 2-4 SU & ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The OVER is 9-1 in Arizona's last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - LB Travis LaBoy (ankle) is doubtful.
RB Edgerrin James (suspension) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)



Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers [NBC | 8 PM ET]

Colts: Indy is riding a nine-game winning streak into its seventh straight playoff appearance thanks to NFL MVP Peyton Manning, who won the award for a record-tying third time on Friday. Manning has been magnificent during the hot streak, throwing 17 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while completing 72.1 percent of his passes. “How you got here, what you’ve done in the past - we all know it’s pretty irrelevant,” Manning said. “It’s kind of who plays better on that day, but it’s nice to know we found ourselves in a hole and kind of answered the question, ‘Could we dig ourselves out?’”

Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings.

Key Injuries - S Bob Sanders (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Chargers (Pick'em, O/U 49): San Diego took a much different road into the playoffs than the Colts, backing into a shot at the AFC West title in the final game of the regular season due to Denver losing at home to Buffalo the previous week. The Chargers beat the Broncos 52-21 last Sunday night to claim the division crown and became the first team to accomplish that feat with an 8-8 record since 1985. “It’s a pretty strange season, ain’t it? But it’s good to be in this position, no doubt, to say that you’re division champs again, to be going to the playoffs and be hosting a playoff game,” San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson said. “That’s a great feeling for us.”

Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in San Diego's last 9 games vs. AFC.

Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (ankle) is questionable.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

 

[ACE-ACE]

I just looked back at my record in the last two weeks
week 16...... 5-2 all bets
week 17....... 5-1 all bets

so I got a nice run going in the last 13 games I bet in NFL

10-3 RUN....

6 games this week on the line...


wish everyone the best
Ace-Ace

 

[charliepeete]

TEASER FOR THOSE THAT WANT THEM...
THATS YOU BIG GUY:nohead:

SD+11
ATL+9
BAL OVER 28...........................$300.00



thanks, for thinking of a fellow michigander...........lol keep on truckin:nohead:

 

[mj23]

ACE love the Atlanta play this Arizona team cannot stop the run and M Turner will have a field day !! GL and a Happy New Year to you !!

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE love the Atlanta play this Arizona team cannot stop the run and M Turner will have a field day !! GL and a Happy New Year to you !!

back at you my friend....:toast:

 

[BillyKidd]

Heres to the start of another 22-3 run.:grandmais

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Ace,

Regarding investment plays, I would guess that Atlanta is the only one due to the unit size, correct? What is the cut off that separates the investment plays from the others ?

Thanks in advance & BOL

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace,

Regarding investment plays, I would guess that Atlanta is the only one due to the unit size, correct? What is the cut off that separates the investment plays from the others ?

Thanks in advance & BOL

just way too many edge for atl than any of the other ones.....sometime I use 20 diff/tools....13-15 is a must play for Investment

10-12 action

most of the small plays fall around those number

I use myline 4 stats
and match-up player vs player the most....something it 30 diff/thing....something it 15.....this week I think I use 40:think2: to find a 4 other action plays.....trust me I wanted more than one this week.

 

[Mulan]

Hey Ace, how do you feel about the reverse line movement? Atl is now +1.5 at my book. I was happy getting them at a pick last night, guess I should have waited. Do you think this is square or sharp movement?

 

[LeaveNoDoubt]

good q mulan

 

[orangebowl33]

Ace are you still taking the chargers with LT questionable??