Exbookie want to help the players week 8

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New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
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myline .....no preseason

balt 4.5
no 1
nyj 4.5
mia E
phil E
car E
wash 9.5
jax 1
nyg 1.5
sf 1
hous 6
tenn 8.5
ne 6.5
tb 7
:howdy::howdy::howdy::shocked:

+6 value
kc
atl
tb
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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If I were you, I'd look at the Panthers this week. They are my strongest play!
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,706
Tokens
myline .....no preseason

balt 4.5
no 1
nyj 4.5
mia E
phil E
car E
wash 9.5
jax 1
nyg 1.5
sf 1
hous 6
tenn 8.5
ne 6.5
tb 7
:howdy::howdy::howdy::shocked:

+6 value
kc
atl
tb


see it come out close with Pre or without,,,,only/diff/is tenn

BEST AND WORST FROM THOSE 4 STATS

T/O
NYG 5.....SF 20

TIME
TB+19....IND -33

PEN
BUF 216 YDS.....SF 518 YDS

LINEOFF
TENN +66......SEA -58
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,706
Tokens
more Candy:toast:

NFL.gif





NFL
Long Sheet



Week 8


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Sunday, October 26

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OAKLAND (2 - 4) at BALTIMORE (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (3 - 4) vs. NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (1 - 5) at NY JETS (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 4) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (4 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 121-86 ATS (+26.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ATLANTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (2 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 2) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 94-124 ATS (-42.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-124 ATS (-42.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 2) at CAROLINA (5 - 2) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
CAROLINA is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (5 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 6) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 44-69 ATS (-31.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (2 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 1) - 10/26/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (1 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 5) - 10/26/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (0 - 7) at HOUSTON (2 - 4) - 10/26/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 0) - 10/27/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Short Sheet


Week 8


Sunday, October 26th

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 7-18 ATS vs. AFC North
Baltimore: 16-6 Under vs. AFC West

San Diego vs. New Orleans, 1:00 ET (in London, England)
San Diego: 9-2 ATS off SU loss
New Orleans: 5-1 Over off BB Unders

Kansas City at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 35-20 ATS off DD loss
NY Jets: 17-35 ATS at home off road loss

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-3 ATS if the line is +3 to -3
Miami: 2-11 ATS at home off SU loss

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 42-22 Under off BB wins
Dallas: 0-5 ATS on artificial turf

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 14-5 Under in road games
Philadelphia: 15-5 ATS playing with week of rest

St. Louis at New England, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 5-1 ATS off SU win as underdog
New England: n/a

Arizona at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 8-21 ATS off BB wins
Carolina: 45-25 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Washington at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Washington: 7-0 Over off BB ATS losses
Detroit: 9-19 ATS vs. conference

Cleveland at Jacksonville, 4:05 ET
Cleveland: 10-0 ATS off road game
Jacksonville: 10-0 Over after having won 3 out of their last 4

NY Giants at Pittsburgh, 4:15 ET
NY Giants: 10-2 ATS in road games
Pittsburgh: 0-8 ATS after scoring 35+ points

Seattle at San Francisco, 4:15 ET
Seattle: 6-0 ATS off BB ATS losses
San Fransico: 2-8 ATS in October

Write-In Game

**Game Moved Due To Hurricane Ike**
Cincinnati at Houston, 4:05 ET
Cincinnati: 18-4 Over off 6+ losses
Houston: 6-0 Over this season



Monday, October 27th

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 8:30 ET ESPN
Indianapolis: 0-4 ATS vs. Tennessee
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS This season

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Trend Sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 26

1:00 PM ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Arizona


1:00 PM ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Philadelphia is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta


1:00 PM BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo


1:00 PM KANSAS CITY vs. NY JETS
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City


1:00 PM OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
Oakland is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games


1:00 PM SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home


1:00 PM ST. LOUIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
St. Louis is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis


1:00 PM TAMPA BAY vs. DALLAS
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games


1:00 PM WASHINGTON vs. DETROIT
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


4:05 PM CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
Cincinnati is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home


4:05 PM CLEVELAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Jacksonville is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland


4:15 PM NY GIANTS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games
NY Giants are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Pittsburgh is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home


4:15 PM SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games



Monday, October 27

8:30 PM INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
Indianapolis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
 

Better to be Lucky than Smart
Joined
Sep 21, 2005
Messages
212
Tokens
My lines

I use 4 different formulas to determine my lines, I will list the game followed by my lines per formula. Starting with Formula 1 then Formula 2 then Formula 3 and finaly formula 4.

Baltimore: (-7.2), (-2), (-3.73), (-5)
New Orleans: (-1.5), (-2), (+3.39), (+1)
New York Jets: (-10.7), (-6), (-8.51), (-9)
Buffalo: (-0.9), (0), (-1.96), (+1)
Tampa Bay: (-0.4), (-1), (-4.22), (-5)
Philadelphia: (-5.2), (-2), (-1.71), (-6)
New England: (-10.6), (-6), (-6.21), (-12)
Carolina: (-2.8), (+1), (-4.19), (-4)
Washington: (-5.9), (-9), (-1.59), (-8)
Jacksonville: (-3.4), (-2), (-1.27), (-2)
Pittsburg: (-1.1), (+4), (-2.29), (-3)
San Fransico: (-4.9), (-2), (-2.23), (-4)
Houston: (-5.3), (-6), (-3.07), (-3)
Tennessee: (-9.7), (-3), (-13.36), (-12)

:think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2:
 

rfb

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,354
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best and worst from the four stats....no preseason:

L/O Tenn 66.....Sea -61

T/O NYG, Mia, Atl 4.......SF 14

Time TB +19.46.......Det -31.32

Penalty Hous 119.......GB 534
 

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2006
Messages
16,073
Tokens
Love the Colts at +4. Let's face it, Tennessee may be good as their record shows, but they have not faced an opp that has a decent offense. Thier 6 wins are against JAC, CIN, HOU, MIN, BAL, and KC.

If Manning can establish any sorts of air attack and keep Tenn's running game on the sideline, I see Tenn losing their first game of the season on Monday Night.

Any thoughts???

Houston has a top 5 NFL offense. Tennessee is winning because they can run the ball and play great defense. The key to beating Indy in the past has been keeping Manning on the sidelines. Tennessee can do that. How is Indy going to stop the running game of Tennessee?

I will be playing the Titans in this game as Indy is not the same team it used to be.
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,706
Tokens
I use 4 different formulas to determine my lines, I will list the game followed by my lines per formula. Starting with Formula 1 then Formula 2 then Formula 3 and finaly formula 4.

Baltimore: (-7.2), (-2), (-3.73), (-5)
New Orleans: (-1.5), (-2), (+3.39), (+1)
New York Jets: (-10.7), (-6), (-8.51), (-9)
Buffalo: (-0.9), (0), (-1.96), (+1)
Tampa Bay: (-0.4), (-1), (-4.22), (-5)
Philadelphia: (-5.2), (-2), (-1.71), (-6)
New England: (-10.6), (-6), (-6.21), (-12)
Carolina: (-2.8), (+1), (-4.19), (-4)
Washington: (-5.9), (-9), (-1.59), (-8)
Jacksonville: (-3.4), (-2), (-1.27), (-2)
Pittsburg: (-1.1), (+4), (-2.29), (-3)
San Fransico: (-4.9), (-2), (-2.23), (-4)
Houston: (-5.3), (-6), (-3.07), (-3)
Tennessee: (-9.7), (-3), (-13.36), (-12)

:think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2:


how has it work out for you...do you avg the 4?...and do you look like i do for +6 value or more...
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,706
Tokens
best and worst from the four stats....no preseason:

L/O Tenn 66.....Sea -61

T/O NYG, Mia, Atl 4.......SF 14

Time TB +19.46.......Det -31.32

Penalty Hous 119.......GB 534

you need to do Hous 119 over again...I have 288 yd - pre season = 219
 

Better to be Lucky than Smart
Joined
Sep 21, 2005
Messages
212
Tokens
how has it work out for you...do you avg the 4?...and do you look like i do for +6 value or more...

I have been developing and fine tuning my spreadsheet program for over 10 years. Between College and Pro's I have never had a loosing season. That does not mean I have made alot of money it just means I have not lost any. Nor does this mean I win every week. For some reason my program has never work good for either the bowl or playoff games. This year I have added another feature that I "THINK" will resolve that.

Example: last year during the regular season I went in College 127-105, and in Pro's I was 47-25 in regular season. So far this season I am 40-40-2 in College and 16-18 in Pro's

No I do not try and average, I try to find true value in my stats.
Example: San Diego is favored by 3 but my lines show that it is possible for New Orleans to win out-right by 1.5 to 2 points.

However, I must through in other parts of my program that I look at: I compare how many points each team scores per every 100 yds that gain. at the same time I look to see how many points that each teams defense gives up per every 100 yds they allow against them.
Example: San Diego's offense scores 3.311 points per 100yds compared to New Orleans 3.34 points per 100yds.
San Diego's defense allows 3.754 points per 100yds they allow comapred to New Orleans 3.507 points per 100yds the give up

Another item I look at is average total defense yards. A larger portion of the time the one with the smaller defense yards wins straight-up.
Example: San Diego's average defensive yards is 366.3 compared to New Orleans average of 331.4 yards.

In this situation, I see that it is possible for New Orleans to win Straight-up, using my lines plus average defensive yards. I see that New Orleans offense is just a little bit better and their defense is also a little bit better.

The program I have is an excell program and requires less than 5 minutes to enter the necessary information, even though it goes through complex calculations. Then it's time to evaluate each game and HOPE everything works out right.

I think Tampa Bay should ahve been favored not Dallas.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Messages
94
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samy farha jr

:smoker2:
Over/Under with a +6 value:

New England +11.17 (take Under 43.5 -- predicted 32.33)
San Francisco +10.98 (take Under 42 -- predicted 31.02)
Cincinnati +7.99 (take Under 44 -- predicted 36.01)
Pittsburgh +7.17 (take Over 42 -- predicted 49.17)
San Diego +6.98 (take Over 47 -- predicted 53.98)


so tell me what are the college 20 point games???? would like to look at them.......
 

New member
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Messages
94
Tokens
this is good stuff..

how has it work out for you...do you avg the 4?...and do you look like i do for +6 value or more...

I have been developing and fine tuning my spreadsheet program for over 10 years. Between College and Pro's I have never had a loosing season. That does not mean I have made alot of money it just means I have not lost any. Nor does this mean I win every week. For some reason my program has never work good for either the bowl or playoff games. This year I have added another feature that I "THINK" will resolve that.

Example: last year during the regular season I went in College 127-105, and in Pro's I was 47-25 in regular season. So far this season I am 40-40-2 in College and 16-18 in Pro's

No I do not try and average, I try to find true value in my stats.
Example: San Diego is favored by 3 but my lines show that it is possible for New Orleans to win out-right by 1.5 to 2 points.

However, I must through in other parts of my program that I look at: I compare how many points each team scores per every 100 yds that gain. at the same time I look to see how many points that each teams defense gives up per every 100 yds they allow against them.
Example: San Diego's offense scores 3.311 points per 100yds compared to New Orleans 3.34 points per 100yds.
San Diego's defense allows 3.754 points per 100yds they allow comapred to New Orleans 3.507 points per 100yds the give up

Another item I look at is average total defense yards. A larger portion of the time the one with the smaller defense yards wins straight-up.
Example: San Diego's average defensive yards is 366.3 compared to New Orleans average of 331.4 yards.

In this situation, I see that it is possible for New Orleans to win Straight-up, using my lines plus average defensive yards. I see that New Orleans offense is just a little bit better and their defense is also a little bit better.

The program I have is an excell program and requires less than 5 minutes to enter the necessary information, even though it goes through complex calculations. Then it's time to evaluate each game and HOPE everything works out right.

I think Tampa Bay should ahve been favored not Dallas.

these programs and these different ways of capping ur games to make ur own lines...i want to learn how to do this....i'm somewhat new to bettting but i am learning so much from ace and others on here...please share as much info as u can with me..if need be i would give u my email address just so you could send me some info......

any help would be greatly appreciated...thanks
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,706
Tokens
how has it work out for you...do you avg the 4?...and do you look like i do for +6 value or more...

I have been developing and fine tuning my spreadsheet program for over 10 years. Between College and Pro's I have never had a loosing season. That does not mean I have made alot of money it just means I have not lost any. Nor does this mean I win every week. For some reason my program has never work good for either the bowl or playoff games. This year I have added another feature that I "THINK" will resolve that.

Example: last year during the regular season I went in College 127-105, and in Pro's I was 47-25 in regular season. So far this season I am 40-40-2 in College and 16-18 in Pro's

No I do not try and average, I try to find true value in my stats.
Example: San Diego is favored by 3 but my lines show that it is possible for New Orleans to win out-right by 1.5 to 2 points.

However, I must through in other parts of my program that I look at: I compare how many points each team scores per every 100 yds that gain. at the same time I look to see how many points that each teams defense gives up per every 100 yds they allow against them.
Example: San Diego's offense scores 3.311 points per 100yds compared to New Orleans 3.34 points per 100yds.
San Diego's defense allows 3.754 points per 100yds they allow comapred to New Orleans 3.507 points per 100yds the give up

Another item I look at is average total defense yards. A larger portion of the time the one with the smaller defense yards wins straight-up.
Example: San Diego's average defensive yards is 366.3 compared to New Orleans average of 331.4 yards.

In this situation, I see that it is possible for New Orleans to win Straight-up, using my lines plus average defensive yards. I see that New Orleans offense is just a little bit better and their defense is also a little bit better.

The program I have is an excell program and requires less than 5 minutes to enter the necessary information, even though it goes through complex calculations. Then it's time to evaluate each game and HOPE everything works out right.

I think Tampa Bay should ahve been favored not Dallas.


WHAT YOU NEED IS AUTO BUTTONS...WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT...I HAVE HAD OTHERS DO MY SHEET FOR ME...With my 4 stats my record is
11-3...and thats in years...if you hit my name you will see my e-mail.. if you aregood at sheet...maybe you can get my back up and runnung...I do it on paper...so It still works....let me know...Ace
 

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$800.00-105 #207 Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
I think that the better team is getting the points here. Dallas is in a free fall and was absolutely manhandled by a St. Louis team that isn't very good. Without Tony Romo the offense went nowhere, and I think that Monte Kiffin will be able to design a scheme to further fluster Brad Johnson.

$2000.00 -105 #203 Kansas City (+14) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
The Chiefs have covered six of eight in this series and you know that Herm Edwards has put a little extra focus into this game since he is coaching against his former team. The Chiefs were physically dominated last week by Tennessee, but the Jets won't be able to do that.

$2100.00 -110 ‘Under’ 43.5 St. Louis at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
You really can't put too much credence in New England's offensive performance on Monday Night Football since they were playing against a terrible Denver secondary. Matt Cassel has looked better, but he's still no Tom Brady. I don't see this unit consistently putting up 30 points per game like they did last year and I think that we are catching this total above some key totals numbers. New England is 7-2 on the 'under' in its last nine home games and the Rams are 5-1 on the 'under' after they score 30 or more points. Out of a possible 12 combined games these offenses have broken 20 points just three combined times. They both did it last week. I expect them to come back to the level that had been playing at this week.

$2200.00-105 #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)
This is our Game of the Week and we're backing the best team in the NFL right now. The Colts have been getting run over by more physical teams and they were absolutely manhandled last week against the Packers in a game in which they were favored. The Titans are the best team in the league because they are the most physical team in the league, and that is exactly what the Colts have had trouble with all year. Tennessee is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 6-0 ATS this year, and the 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Indy. This is a chance for the Titans to show the world that they are for real and I think they do it with another dominating performance. This is not the same Colts team that we're used to seeing and they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 divisional games.

$800.00 -103 #209 Atlanta (+9.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)
I think that the oddsmakers are still undervaluing a very strong, very motivated Atlanta team. The Falcons already won in Lambeau this year as big underdogs and have had an extra week to gain momentum from their incredible home win over Chicago last week. The Eagles may be able to get to Matt Ryan in the passing game, but can they stop the Falcons on the ground? I think that the gutsy Falcons won't win this game, but they will keep it close throughout and this will be a one possession game late in the fourth quarter.
 

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