Exbookie Want To Help The Players ...superbowl Picks Part 2

[ACE-ACE]

OVER $2,000 BETS..................................25-15......+$33,680.00
UNDER $1,300 BETS................................33-30.......+$1,365.00
.............................................TOTAL......................+$35,045.00

FROM MY THEAD IN PART 1....I HAVE GOING IN TO THE SUPERBOWL
ONE BET.......THE AFC-4 1/2.....FOR $5,000.00.....I BET THIS BEFORE NE WON AND PHI WON....

AS OF NOW I CAN MIDDLE THE GAME BY TAKING PHI +7 1/2....THAT WILL GIVE ME....5 .....6 ....AND 7...TO HIT ....TO WIN BOTH.....
OR BET PHI MONEY LINE....(+245) BETTING $3,000 TO WIN $7,350.00
SO IF
PHI WINS I WIN +$2,150.00.....(WIN THE M/L...LOSE NE-4 1/2)
OR
NE WIN BY 5 I WIN +2,000.00 (LOSE THE PHI M/L...WIN NE -4 1/2)
IF NE ONLY WIN BY 3...2....OR 1...

I WOULD LOSE BOTH -$8,000 +
OR IF I JUST BET NE-4 1/2

WIN +$5,000 .....LOSE - $5,250.00

WHAT WOULD YOU DO????


THIS IS HOW I SEE THE GAME......

THE LINE NOW..NE-7.................................MY LINE -8...A VALUE OF +1

GIVEAWAY VS TAKEAWAY
NE +16 VS PHI +8..............................................................EDGE NE

TIME NE +18 VS PHI _17.....................................................EDGE NE

PENALTIES NE 862 VS PHI 966............................................EDGE NE

LINE OFF NE +90 VS PHI +63.............................................EDGE NE
NO TEAM HAS MADE IT TO THE SUPERBOWL WITH A MINUS HERE

LINE OFF ALL GAME THAT WAS MINUS(LOST BY THE LINE)
NE........
-17 PIT
-4 CIN
-11 MIA

ONLY 3

PHI
-4 CLE
-2 BAL
-25 PIT
-6 WAS
-7 DAL
-10 STL
-24 CIN
THAT 7 FOR -78

AS YOU CAN SEE PHI FROM THE "LINE MAKER POINT OF VIEW"....GOT LUCKIE TO BE AT THE SUPERBOWL

THIS WILL BE THE 32ND GAME PLAYED AFTER A TWO-WEEK PREPATION
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP....

AVG MARGIN OF VICTORY:

TWO WEEKS 16.8
ONE WEEK 11.6

SUPERBOWLS DECIDED BY 10 POINTS OR FEWER:

TWO WEEKS 11 OF 31 35%
ONE WEEK 4 OF 7 57%

SO WITH THAT IN MIND I WOULD HAVE TO SAY THAT IN THE SUPERBOWL THIS YEAR THE POINTS WILL NOT MATTER...

BET THE TEAM THAT WILL WIN

I SEE PHI SCORING 17-20
I SEE NE SCORING 31-34
SO IF YOU GOT THE LINE AT NE- 4 1/2...5....6.....7.....8
IT WILL NOT MATTER
UNDER LESS SOMETHING HAPPEN OR SOMEONE SHOW ME SOMETHING
MY BET WILL STAND!!!

AFC(N.E.)-4 1/2 FOR $5,000.00

OVER 47 1/2 FOR $1,300.00

MORE TO COME....

ACE

 

[Roxygurl]

i love new england too ace. but you have this game as a high scoring one? defense wins championships but neither will show up in this one?you dont think the pats defense can shut philly down as they did the steelers and colts thus keeping the score down?your the master so i will consider the over but it doesnt feel right.~RG

 

[FairWarning]

Roxy - In the last few years, the winning team has put up some serious points. NE might let Philly score more with the prevent D.

On Olympic you can bet the NE score O/U 27 and Philly is O/U 20. I think the NE over is very strong. If they score 35, you only need 14 out of Philly to go over. If they can score 40+ on Pitt, they can do it to Philly also.

 

[Roxygurl]

good point fair warning. so new england blows out the eagles.yikes.:smoker2: ~RG

 

[ACE-ACE]

Roxygurl

Its Not A Over $2,000 Bet...so Take It For What It Worth....if Ne Can Score 34 Points In The Game Phi Would Only Have To Score 2 Td In There Time With The Ball....superbowl Game Seem To High
2003=71 Points..line Was 37.................................................over By 34
2002=69 Points..line Was44..................................................over By 25
2001=37 Points..line Was 53.................................................under By 19
2000=41 Points..line Was 33...this Sure Of Been A Defense Game..over 9
1999=39 Points..line Was 47..................................................under By 8
Avg=51.4..line Maker Avg. 42.8

I Have Look At The Match-up Between The Two Team
Ne Vs Phi......it Would Surprise Me If The Total Score Is
Lower Than 39 In This Game

Shutting Down Phi By13-14 Point Would Be Great
I Think Ne Will Score At Less 31 Or More Points.....

What Your Final Score On The Game?

Ace

 

[Roxygurl]

based on what these teams did in the playoffs im guessing 27-13.but im only going back and forth on the total im sure of my NE side. thats why i need ya big boy.lol.~RG

 

[quantumleap]

Ace:

I think you are doing the right thing by just sticking with your AFC -4 1/2 bet. Why dilute such a good bet by middling and possibly losing more?

Just my 2-cents worth.

 

[ESQAJM]

Ace: You made a mistake in your figuring. You said you would lose both bets if NE won by 1, 2 or 3. That's wrong. You would also lose both bets if NE won by 4. That gives you 2 key numbers (3 and 4) that would cause you to lose both bets.

I have the same problem as you except that I don't have 5 as a middle. (I laid 5.5) I haven't decided what to do yet. I also like NE to win big.

ESQAJM

 

[ACE-ACE]

Props Bets

WHEN I WAS A BOOKIE PROPS BETS ALWAY MAKES THE BOOKIE A LOT OF MONEY....BUT ITS THE SUPERBOWL!!!!
I HAVE SPEND 3 DAYS LOOKING OVER EACH ONE.....DIFF BOOKS HAVE DIFF ONES TO TRY TO GET YOUR MONEY!!!

THIS IS THE BEST OF THE PROPS THAT I LIKE(JUST THINKING ABOUT BETTING)

TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY TOM BRADY....OVER 20 1/2 ...... 260/200
TOTAL RUSHING YARD BY TOM BRADY...OVER 2 1/2.........260/200
COREY DILLION 1ST RUSH WILL GO OVER 3 1/2 YDS........260/200
TOTAL POINTS SCORE BY PHI.............UNDER 20 1/2........250/200
PLAYER TO BE NAMED MVP..........TOM BRADY..................200/260

DONT BET ALOT ON PROPS.....ITS MORE FUN THAN MAKING BIG MONEY AT!!!

DOES ANYONE HAVE A BETTER ONE???

 

[quantumleap]

Here's one I've been looking at (MVP)-
brady +159 1.7 units
mcnabb +470 0.8 units
westbrook +1430 0.3 units
dillon +536 0.7 units
viniateri +2200 0.2 units

If any one of these guys gets MVP and you bet with these odds and these units then you win. Can anyone think of another player that even has a chance to win???

 

[cruisin]

ACE, what's your record in the last 10 Super Bowls using the posted line, opening/closing line? I like NE, but the NFC dog has covered the last 3........(I think) I know they did last year. Thanks.

 

[Pam]

Quantom...looks good with TE Lewis out...other MVP possiblities

Akers

D.Branch

Pamarty:

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks Pam. Here's what I have on those 2-

D. Branch:
RECEIVING
Has an average of 4 catches per game in 9 games for 454 yards total this year for the Pats. 4 TD catches this year.

# 2 David Akers
KICKING
Year Team.................. G 1-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Tot Lg Blk Pct XP XPG Pct
2004 Philadelphia Eagles 16 0-0 4-4 6-7 15-18 2-3 27-32 51 0 84.4 41-42 41 97.6

Akers has kicked well making 27 out of 32 field goals.

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE, what's your record in the last 10 Super Bowls using the posted line, opening/closing line? I like NE, but the NFC dog has covered the last 3........(I think) I know they did last year. Thanks.

I TOOK CAROLINA LAST YEAR...AFTER THEY BEAT(IN THE PLAY-OFF) DAL BY19
PHI BY 11...STL BY 6...
THE LAST SIX SUPERBOWL I HAVE WON MONEY ON...I THINK MY
RECORD IS 8-2 I KNOW I LOST IN 1997 GB -11 DEN WON 31-24

 

[ACE-ACE]

Here's one I've been looking at (MVP)-
brady +159 1.7 units
mcnabb +470 0.8 units
westbrook +1430 0.3 units
dillon +536 0.7 units
viniateri +2200 0.2 units

If any one of these guys gets MVP and you bet with these odds and these units then you win. Can anyone think of another player that even has a chance to win???

WHERE DID YOU FIND BRADY AT +159 ? YOU HAVE GOOD BALANCE HERE BUT IF BRADY WINS YOU LOSE 1 UNIT
MCNABB WIN TIE
DILLON WIN TIE
WESTBROOK .6 UNITS WINNER
VINIATEN .7 UNITS WINNER

 

[quantumleap]

WHERE DID YOU FIND BRADY AT +159 ? YOU HAVE GOOD BALANCE HERE BUT IF BRADY WINS YOU LOSE 1 UNIT
MCNABB WIN TIE
DILLON WIN TIE
WESTBROOK .6 UNITS WINNER
VINIATEN .7 UNITS WINNER

Brady +159 still up at Pinnacle.

Here are my figures if Brady wins-

Brady +159/1.7 units = +2.70 units
McNabb -0.80 units
Westbrook -0.30 units
Dillon -0.70 units
Viniateri -0.20 units

Total = +0.70 units

You're effectively betting 3.7 units to win between 0.70 units and 0.90 units which would be the equivalent to betting -400 to -600 that one of these will win MVP.

 

[THEBUFFROCK]

Ace..........

am I reading this correctly??????

Tom Brady rushing yards OVER 2.5????????

wow.....looks like easy money!

PS..........I simply LOVE the under in this game!
Also...........like you I have AFC-4 Still thinking about middling!

 

[FairWarning]

Ace..........

am I reading this correctly??????

Tom Brady rushing yards OVER 2.5????????

wow.....looks like easy money!

PS..........I simply LOVE the under in this game!
Also...........like you I have AFC-4 Still thinking about middling!

Don't forget if Brady takes a knee three times at the end of the game, that is (-6) rushing. Still like it?

My best play is the Pats over 27.

 

[quantumleap]

Don't forget if Brady takes a knee three times at the end of the game, that is (-6) rushing. Still like it?

My best play is the Pats over 27.

What about sacks? Are they considered negative yards rushing for the QB?

 

[FairWarning]

What about sacks? Are they considered negative yards rushing for the QB?

No - In college they are.