EXBOOKIE Thanksgiving week 13

[ACE-ACE]

Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.

Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 23-9 ATS
Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 34-19 ATS
Public sides, who are favorites, are 30-14 ATS
Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and 11 of the past 12 years
Since 2005, nine teams have closed with 74% or more of the spread tickets on Thanksgiving and those sides went 9-0 SU and ATS.

Biggest Public Sides on Thanksgiving Since 2005
82%: 2023 49ers, -7 at SEA (W, 31-13)
80%: 2019 Saints, -7 at ATL (W, 26-18)
79%: 2005 Falcons, -3 at DET (W, 27-7)
77%: 2012 Patriots, -7 at NYJ (W, 49-19)
77%: 2008 Cowboys, -11.5 vs. SEA (W, 34-9)
75%: 2010 Patriots, -6 at DET (W, 45-24)
75%: 2008 Titans, -11 at DET (W, 47-10)
74%: 2016 Steelers, -8.5 at IND (W, 28-7)
74%: 2007 Colts, -13.5 at ATL (W, 31-13)

 

[MotorCityMadman]

So. What the best bet on thanksgiving day

DET VS CHI. not sure you want to give up 10 plus points……..my line is -14 on this game

NYG VS DAL. BATTLE of the worst teams. My line has NYG winning by 7. The 411 number make NYG big favor
so why is Dallas favor ????

GB VS MIA. Small edge to GB my line is GB wins by 7


not sure I’m betting on Thursday. Looks like NYG got the best edge


anyone want to find a winning in those 3 games??

I would take Detroit. They are on a mission. No let up, get the monkey off their back. Also take Miami +.

 

[arniesarmy]

I would take Detroit. They are on a mission. No let up, get the monkey off their back. Also take Miami +.

If you look closely, that's more than a monkey. That's King Kong on steroids.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Same with KC on Friday. Number say KC by 14

it would be a cold day in hell if LV wins out right

so the question is will points matter. And they only matter in 18% of the games

another pass unless someone show me a edge.

KC doesn't cover spreads

 

[ACE-ACE]

KC doesn't cover spreads

Las Vegas team is in big trouble also. After a day at looking at all the match up. I’m staying with Sunday games.

 

[ashack1]

KC doesn't cover spreads

^^^^^
This..

I also agree with MCM. Detroit has been all gas, no brakes if given the opportunity.. No let up at all..
I love it. The Lions fans deserve this…

 

[StreetSmart2019]

KC doesn't cover spreads

That's only because legalized gambling has the public all over KC every week and the sportsbooks / NFL have the refs control KC winning but not covering. Watch the Dallas/Giant game on Thanksgiving. The refs will control that game to a Dallas win but no cover.

 

[3pointdog]

Home teams are 119-114-12 all-time on Thanksgiving. The Lions and Cowboys have combined to go 70-67-3 on Turkey Day with all 140 of those games taking place at home.

not talking about all time.. don't care what happened in the 70/80's!! Just the most recent stat (19/20 or so years - hahaha) but it is a true stat, I heard it again today and confirmed:
Favorites are 49-10 SU and 39-20 ATS (67%) since 2003

 

[Bronco87]

not talking about all time.. don't care what happened in the 70/80's!! Just the most recent stat (19/20 or so years - hahaha) but it is a true stat, I heard it again today and confirmed:
Favorites are 49-10 SU and 39-20 ATS (67%) since 2003

I wonder, what the favs are since the books opened more nationally. Being able to bet from the coach, seems to have changed the outcomes of these games, I would agree that with vegas dead on Thanksgiving day, that it was a good time to let the few win, and everyone else just watches and says, damn it I knew it. also maybe this is a dumb fucks way to look at it.

I think after Dallas had that great week last week, they go back to being terrible, this looks a lot like a golfer that shot a 72, but they are still 12 handicap, they will not come back and shoot a 72 again.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

I wonder, what the favs are since the books opened more nationally. Being able to bet from the coach, seems to have changed the outcomes of these games, I would agree that with vegas dead on Thanksgiving day, that it was a good time to let the few win, and everyone else just watches and says, damn it I knew it. also maybe this is a dumb fucks way to look at it.

I think after Dallas had that great week last week, they go back to being terrible, this looks a lot like a golfer that shot a 72, but they are still 12 handicap, they will not come back and shoot a 72 again.

I agree with everything you said, but I bet from my couch.

 

[uscmd]

Miami has lost 8, 10 or 11 straight;( differing sources), when kickoff is below 40.

Tomorrow Mia is looking at 25 degrees. i would play on GB. Chi has several talented players, but to date, has failed to achieve consistency.

NY and Dal, are likely thinking more about their draft position, both needing a qb, O-line and young/cheap defensive help. Both teams are where the rams were right after the sb win. Trades, retirements and a solid gm, have helped them start to rebuild. Just today, there was talk on one of the sports shows of trading Micha Parsons. This a shallow qb draft. In fact there was talk about NY and Jax position 1 and 3 arranging a deal to send Lawrence to NY. in hopes of landing Deion and son. Teams that are likely slated to watch postseason on tv, can cough up real hairballs.

Thanks Ace, I really appreciate your work, and experience. I wish you the BOL on all of your plays.
Lastly there are several teams contemplating benching a healthy qb, to give the #2 or #3 guy an audition. 2025, being potentially more important than a win

 

[nolaswede]

KC doesn't cover spreads

You are right. Good for teasers, but that’s about it.

 

[jchooker]

That's only because legalized gambling has the public all over KC every week and the sportsbooks / NFL have the refs control KC winning but not covering. Watch the Dallas/Giant game on Thanksgiving. The refs will control that game to a Dallas win but no cover.

How bad is it gona get when KC (MO) has legal sports betting??? lol

 

[one51rum]

10 pt teaser is even money today

Confirmation: 7086659​

Date Placed: 11/28/24 10:55:13
Header:
INTERNET: 3 Team 3T 10 Points Teaser(ties no action) risk 100.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 306 Lions +½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)
2. 307 Giants +13½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)
3. 310 Packers +7 (NFL) (10.0 pts)

 

[exploited17]

KC doesn't play on Thanksgiving so.....

 

[ACE-ACE]

10 pt teaser is even money today

Confirmation: 7086659​

Date Placed: 11/28/24 10:55:13
Header:
INTERNET: 3 Team 3T 10 Points Teaser(ties no action) risk 100.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 306 Lions +½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)
2. 307 Giants +13½ (NFL) (10.0 pts)
3. 310 Packers +7 (NFL) (10.0 pts)

I love that one I’m in. Don’t count in my record but will do $200

 

[brendanjack]

Miami has lost 8, 10 or 11 straight;( differing sources), when kickoff is below 40.

Tomorrow Mia is looking at 25 degrees. i would play on GB. Chi has several talented players, but to date, has failed to achieve consistency.

NY and Dal, are likely thinking more about their draft position, both needing a qb, O-line and young/cheap defensive help. Both teams are where the rams were right after the sb win. Trades, retirements and a solid gm, have helped them start to rebuild. Just today, there was talk on one of the sports shows of trading Micha Parsons. This a shallow qb draft. In fact there was talk about NY and Jax position 1 and 3 arranging a deal to send Lawrence to NY. in hopes of landing Deion and son. Teams that are likely slated to watch postseason on tv, can cough up real hairballs.

Thanks Ace, I really appreciate your work, and experience. I wish you the BOL on all of your plays.
Lastly there are several teams contemplating benching a healthy qb, to give the #2 or #3 guy an audition. 2025, being potentially more important than a win

Look at Dallas remaining schedule I know it’s hard to im

 

[brendanjack]

Look at Dallas remaining schedule I know it’s hard to im

hit button to fast . I heard that sanders has been mentored by Brady .strong chance they both end up in Vegas father and son .

 

[Biz]

I heard some crazy stat yesterday but can’t remember it exactly but is was like HOME teams on thanksgiving are around 39-19 ATS last 19 or so years. Can anyone confirm that. I don’t think it was straight up. I believe it was ATS.

Since 2005 ATS per Bet Labs

Home Favs: 17-13
Home Dogs: 6-19

Home DIV Fav: 8-9
Home DIV Dog: 2-8

Home NDIV Favs: 9-4
Home NDIV Dogs: 4-11

 

[3pointdog]

Here are some other trends for those who like that:

Dallas is 2-11 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011
10+ Point Thanksgiving Favorites are 15-4 ATS since 1980
Dan Campbell's Lions are 0-3 SU on Thanksgiving
Rookie quarterbacks are 4-6 SU on Thanksgiving
Bears 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2015
Dolphins are 5-2 SU on Thanksgiving
Favorites in Thanksgiving Night games are 13-4 ATS

I wonder, what the favs are since the books opened more nationally. Being able to bet from the coach, seems to have changed the outcomes of these games, I would agree that with vegas dead on Thanksgiving day, that it was a good time to let the few win, and everyone else just watches and says, damn it I knew it. also maybe this is a dumb fucks way to look at it.

I think after Dallas had that great week last week, they go back to being terrible, this looks a lot like a golfer that shot a 72, but they are still 12 handicap, they will not come back and shoot a 72 again.

i agree. Lean Giants as well.