Okay, Ace confirmed the home scoring 2 points for home week10 and earlier, 3 points there after. This sheet reflects that change and now the BOLD value plays are 8 and over. I’m still keeping the 6 point plays visible eg. 49’ers but they will be regular font. I back tested weeks 4 and 5 at 1-1-1 ATS. I will also back test 5 years when I get time to do so. Ps. Preseason is not included.
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| week5 | 0 | 1 | |
| week4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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I see that Carolina play now....I have to look more carefully in the weeks to come
is there a reason that 8 is value now instead of 6
home teams playing better at home?
I used to actually look at what a team scored an gave up on average
then see those averages at home ..... if a team score 2 more on average at home and gave up 3 less on average... their home field would be worth 5
not all teams play better at home
3 may have been the mean but many had a negative and many were worth more than 3
you can get that number not just guess at it
is there a reason that 8 is value now instead of 6
home teams playing better at home?
I used to actually look at what a team scored an gave up on average
then see those averages at home ..... if a team score 2 more on average at home and gave up 3 less on average... their home field would be worth 5
not all teams play better at home
3 may have been the mean but many had a negative and many were worth more than 3
you can get that number not just guess at it
That came from some testing I’ve done with a similar system…….
However………I just back tested the 2014 and 2013 seasons using the most recent changes to myline and it’s very disappointing indeed......................... Do you guys have time and capability to corroborate my results?
Ps; I do agree home field advantage is much more dynamic than just 2 or 3 points.
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