"posted February 22, 2004 09:41 PM
quote: It's a loser, so no, it's not a good play. Too many bets are decided by a hair for something close to be considered "good."
Any actual handicapper knows that the above statement couldn't be further from the truth."
I know a lot of gamblers who say, "Gee, good play, good play," after losing by a basket, a second, a dollar, whatever. It's called "delusional."
Good: You picked the right side.
Bad: You didn't.
By claiming your losing bet was some kind of cheated winner, you're implying that the people holding the winning ticket got lucky.
They picked the right side. You didn't.
Look, I've done it myself: I've called something a smart play and complained when something unforseen interfered.
Smart play? Yeah. And the winning wager was evidently smarter.
Don't whitewash your failures.
quote: It's a loser, so no, it's not a good play. Too many bets are decided by a hair for something close to be considered "good."
Any actual handicapper knows that the above statement couldn't be further from the truth."
I know a lot of gamblers who say, "Gee, good play, good play," after losing by a basket, a second, a dollar, whatever. It's called "delusional."
Good: You picked the right side.
Bad: You didn't.
By claiming your losing bet was some kind of cheated winner, you're implying that the people holding the winning ticket got lucky.
They picked the right side. You didn't.
Look, I've done it myself: I've called something a smart play and complained when something unforseen interfered.
Smart play? Yeah. And the winning wager was evidently smarter.
Don't whitewash your failures.
Listen bud,
It was called a "good play" before it was a loser. (if it's a loser - it might still win) With the odds of 6-1, it was a good play. It might only be off by a couple hundred thousand. Last time I checked, that wouldn't produce 6-1 odds. Sure, if it's a loser it ain't worth a pint of piss... but if the same play comes up next week... you'll damn well bet your ass I'll take it.
It was called a "good play" before it was a loser. (if it's a loser - it might still win) With the odds of 6-1, it was a good play. It might only be off by a couple hundred thousand. Last time I checked, that wouldn't produce 6-1 odds. Sure, if it's a loser it ain't worth a pint of piss... but if the same play comes up next week... you'll damn well bet your ass I'll take it.
My point was you have to take risks when gambling, obviously, right? To expect a 100% success rate is of course insane. So, if you end up ahead by winning 1 out of 7 bets, were those 6 bets you lost really failures? No, they were part of a succession of bets in an attempt to hit only 1. I knew that 5.9 million was probably a little bit too low, but, thought it was worth a shot since I had a good feeling the film wasn't going to do that great. Maybe a bad play, but, those opportunities don't come along often. Hell, it says right there in my first post "This movie's got a good chance of being in the 4-8 million dollar range imo." I stated from the offset that it could go over 6 by up to 2 million, now, was I wrong? Anyone could have taken that information and made a play on the under 10 million at WSEX and cleared the line by over 3 million dollars.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 23, 2004 at 03:26 AM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 23, 2004 at 03:26 AM.]
The above post was referencing gambling in general, not any specific wagers discussed on this thread.
"lol you can say that, sure, but if I made 6 more plays at +650 and only hit one of them, I'd still be ahead, not including the Mooseport play, making that a total of 6 bad plays and one good play, with a +50 profit."
Oren, have you made or lost money playing movie props? Not "If I did this..." Based on what you have done, have you won or lost money?
"lol you can say that, sure, but if I made 6 more plays at +650 and only hit one of them, I'd still be ahead, not including the Mooseport play, making that a total of 6 bad plays and one good play, with a +50 profit."
Oren, have you made or lost money playing movie props? Not "If I did this..." Based on what you have done, have you won or lost money?
It has nothing to do with whether the play won or not, nor does it have anything to do with claiming the other side "got lucky".
It's got everything to do with VALUE. That is the difference between a gambler and a handicapper. A gambler thinks that every play he makes is a winner, a handicapper knows that a large chunk of his plays won't be winners but that there is long-term value in taking the bet. It's no surprise then that handicappers tend to be long-term winners and gamblers don't.
If you are flipping a coin, and you offer me +105, it is a good bet -- no matter if it wins or loses, because you are offering me odds that are a comparable to something that has a 48.7% chance of happening on something that has a 50% chance of happening.
It's got everything to do with VALUE. That is the difference between a gambler and a handicapper. A gambler thinks that every play he makes is a winner, a handicapper knows that a large chunk of his plays won't be winners but that there is long-term value in taking the bet. It's no surprise then that handicappers tend to be long-term winners and gamblers don't.
If you are flipping a coin, and you offer me +105, it is a good bet -- no matter if it wins or loses, because you are offering me odds that are a comparable to something that has a 48.7% chance of happening on something that has a 50% chance of happening.
Anyways I might not be in the black betting on movies merely because of a couple of money management mistakes, but I'm pretty sure I'm at 60% or better. When I first started betting on Olympic's box office match-ups I had something like an 8-2 record. I stopped keeping track since then. But I'm gonna start tracking my progress from here on out.
I understand perfectly well the concept of value. Obviously you weren't paying attention but, I have won other "under" bets exactly like this one at Intertops. Not surprisingly, not a single person showed up to give me props when I won those. Since then they have made it much harder to hit those unders, but I took the shot anyways.
0-2 -4 units
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 23, 2004 at 04:41 PM.]
0-2 -4 units
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 23, 2004 at 04:41 PM.]
