.35* France +1 -200
.25* France +1, +0.5 -135
.15* France +0.5 +100
.10* France PK, +0.5 +155
.10* France PK +255
.05* France ML +401
.40* France O2 -110
.20* France OTT -0.5 -134
.05* France OTT -1 +165
.03* France OTT O2 +1315
.05* Spain OTT2 +300
.05* Spain OTT 1.5 +119
psychopathically big card I know...always within reason I bet you
.30* Portugal +0.5, +1 -140
.10* Portugal +0.5 -106
.05* Portugal PK, +0.5 +133
.05* Portugal PK +231
.25* Portugal O2 -113
.05* Portugal O1,5, 2 -149
.05* Spain OTT 1 -158
.03* Spain OTT 1.5 +140
.03* Portugal OTT 0.5 -140
Just three weeks ago we might have engaged in the most interesting tactical battle in the tourney. The irony is we may have an even more captivating encounter this time around. Italy have moved away from a 3-5-2 to a diamond midfield with Pirlo benefiting the most from this shape. The Spanish have gone back and forth with striker (nine) and a false nine in Fabregas. These coaches are known for their organizing a family setting (chemistry ala a Doc Rivers) and motivators. Something has to be said on the talents of the staff in maximizing the squads skill set. With the injury of Puyol many argued Spain would suffer greatly. While Arbeloa has been less than ideal in attack from the full back position, the defense has been aided from ball control and proper positioning. While Italy have loaded the middle of the field and have forced number advantages there. No different here, as in laymen terms Italy have a 4 vs 3 in that zone. Spain struggled with Andrea Pirlo when it was a 3 vs 3 and some rumors have Spain adding an extra man there. Giorgio Chiellini should continue at left-back, Ignazio Abate is the natural option on the right but might not be fit. Christian Maggio or Federico Balzaretti is more likely to continue there and will the weak point of Italy's side.
The other question going into this one is Thiago Motta or Riccardo Montolivo. Both should play and give 110% in what I call the bowling ball role.
Spain will retain ball, tire the Italians and use their bench as a tactical advantage. While again Prandelli wants Daniele de Rossi, Claudio Marchisio and Riccardo Montolivo to push back Xavi Hernandez, Sergio Busquets and Xabi Alonso, creating space for Pirlo to dictate the game. Getting him free is the key so they may mix and match a bit with De Rossi and marchiso. The other key are the full backs, will Spain keep Arbeloa back to protect against the Italian strikers who have been pulling the central defenders wide in this tourney wide? Naturally one would assume so and this will keep Spain more predictable. A chess match indeed, I've locked in the Italians and Over. No reasoning behind my owns which I can't divulge, enjoy!