ERockMoney EURO 2012

[ERockMoney]

Futures:

1.0 Germany to win +300
1.0 Netherlands to win +650
0.5 Russia to win +2000
0.5 Russia to reach final +900
0.5 Croatia to reach semi-final +500
0.5 Portugal to finish bottom of group +275
0.5 Italy not to advance +150
0.25 Sweden to reach semi-final +800
0.25 Russia/Germany final +5000

I'll be back with some thoughts on the tournament and my reasoning for these plays.

GL to all.

 

[NickB]

Loving Italy not to advance and Croatia to reach semis. Good luck!

 

[ERockMoney]

Group A:

I have gone through my process and, as usual, find many likely scenario’s with this group. One constant through my eyes was the Czech’s failing to advance. I’m just not thrilled with this squad and have my concerns with age, fitness and midfield play. The Czech’s may not finish last, but I don’t see them getting through.

The most important game of the group IMO is the very first one. Three points in the opener could skyrocket either co-host Poland or Greece and leave the loser reeling and place their tournament in jeopardy.

I’m high on the Russians for a multitude of reasons, but I can’t get past expecting this steam to stumble somewhere, due to inconsistency, allowing another nation to sneak in a take first. I think Russia advances, but with some likelihood they end up in second. I think the Russians will pose a stern test to whoever they face in the quarterfinals from Group B.

Back to Poland-Greece, possibly not high on excitement, but how can you not be excited for the start of European Cup? Greece has their critics, but a win here could propel this aging Greece squad right into the quarterfinals. On the flip side, a loss and bottom place finish could be in order. Greece may only score two goals and win the group or allow only three and finish at the bottom, who knows. Poland is young and has the massive advantage of playing on home turf, which is why I would lean Poland in stealing the first game and stealing the group – leaving the Russians in second.

Day One:

1.25 to win 1.00 Poland/Greece Under 2

 

[ERockMoney]

Day Two:

1.00 to win 1.20 Denmark +1
1.00 to win 1.04 Germany ML

I'll be back with some thoughts on Group B.

GL to all.

 

[ERockMoney]

2-0-1, +2.24

Spain ML 1.40 to win 1.00
Ireland/Croatia Draw +220

GL to all.

 

[Ttratter]

Nice start.

 

[ERockMoney]

Nick, Tratter -

Thank you for stopping by.

I gave back my profit and than some today....i"ts early and I'm optimistic

2-2-1, -0.16

Day 4:

England/France draw +220, 1.00 to win 2.20
Sweden/Ukraine Over 2.0, 1.25 to win 1.00

GL to all.

 

[Betallsports]

BOL ! Today ERock, on the Over in Both Games Today :toast:

 

[Betallsports]

Nick, Tratter -

Thank you for stopping by.

I gave back my profit and than some today....i"ts early and I'm optimistic

2-2-1, -0.16

Day 4:

England/France draw +220, 1.00 to win 2.20
Sweden/Ukraine Over 2.0, 1.25 to win 1.00

GL to all.

Winner Winner... Chicken Dinner :toast:

Very Nice hit on that Draw

 

[ERockMoney]

Winner Winner... Chicken Dinner :toast:

Very Nice hit on that Draw

BAS,

Thank you. Nice job on your end as well.

GL with the remainder of the competition.

 

[ERockMoney]

4-2-1, +3.04

Day five:

Czech Rep/Greece Under 2.25 -135
Poland 0, +0.5 -118

I really like this Russian team in this competition as they were my long shot winner (20-1) and also have a future on them to get into the final (9-1). However, the team seems to lack consistency in my eyes and I expected them to have a lull somewhere in the group stage. I figured it would not be in the opener with all the hype and adrenaline during the lead up. I'm expecting that short fall or lull to occur tomorrow as the hype behind the Russians is in full steam after the 4-1 drubbing they put on the Czech's. I'm looking for the host to at least draw and possibly win tomorrow causing plenty of Russian tickets to get burned.

I have much less of a read on the other game, especially on the side. I just don't expect many goals and see a 1-0, 1-1 type of game.

I will almost certainly be on the Dutch ML versus Germany, looks like some +210 or +215 is available. Over reaction to the loss to Denmark and would fit typical Dutch fashion to pull the win out after a clunker in the opener. Not sure about Denmark-Portugal at the moment, possibly a pass.

GL to all.

 

[ERockMoney]

5-3-2, +2.19

Day six:

Netherlands ML +206, 1.00 to win 2.06
Netherlands -1 +400, 0.50 to win 4.00
Over 2.5 -103, 1.03 to win 1.00

I really expect the erratic Dutch to come out guns blazing in this match and fully expect them to not only win, but win impressively. When things fall into place for the Dutch they are as good as it gets, unfortunately, they can't seem to bring that type of effort and cohesion as often as they need to. There backs are against the wall and they need the three points, the sky high expectations are in the gutter, so look for the Dutch to pull a 180 and send the hopes of a nation skyrocketing again with a 3-1 destruction of the Germans.

In the other game I'm actually leaning for the Danes to do it again and knock off Portugal, but I'm going to pass on the game. I have a funny feeling that the Danes are going to open with six points from two matches and still miss advancing because they will have to deal with Germany's wrath in the closing match after a brutal loss to the Netherlands.

GL to all.

 

[ERockMoney]

Correction: should read Netherlands -1 +400, 0.50 to win 2.00

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

5-3-2, +2.19

Day six:

Netherlands ML +206, 1.00 to win 2.06
Netherlands -1 +400, 0.50 to win 4.00
Over 2.5 -103, 1.03 to win 1.00

I really expect the erratic Dutch to come out guns blazing in this match and fully expect them to not only win, but win impressively. When things fall into place for the Dutch they are as good as it gets, unfortunately, they can't seem to bring that type of effort and cohesion as often as they need to. There backs are against the wall and they need the three points, the sky high expectations are in the gutter, so look for the Dutch to pull a 180 and send the hopes of a nation skyrocketing again with a 3-1 destruction of the Germans.

In the other game I'm actually leaning for the Danes to do it again and knock off Portugal, but I'm going to pass on the game. I have a funny feeling that the Danes are going to open with six points from two matches and still miss advancing because they will have to deal with Germany's wrath in the closing match after a brutal loss to the Netherlands.

GL to all.

may you go 3-0 today my good man...

 

[varkeyboy]

Get it back on THURS! Not even that much of a loss if anything...

 

[ERockMoney]

6-5-2, +1.69

Consecutive losing days, let's pick up the double today. I really, really liked the Netherlands yesterday, but gambling on or against the Dutch is like playing with fire. I made my stance, drew a line in the sand and paid for it. Thankfully, the Over minimized my losses, but I don't like being that far off on my read.

Italy/Croatia Under 2.25 -111
Spain/Ireland Under 2.5 +114

Proceed with caution - this group was the only one that went a different direction than I expected.

CTLS - sorry for your loss - they may still sneak in with a win over Portugal

Vark - thank you for stopping by, BOL today

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

put it this way..there is an oranj jersey (if it's still there?) lying on the 1/4 mile jogging track at Belmont(live behind there)...was so disgusted with their performance this tourney, that to have dutch blood in me made me sick yesterday....

 

[ERockMoney]

7-6-3, +1.16

Day Eight:

France ML 1.00 to 1.10

I think Ukraine had their moment and the French need a result here after the draw with England. France dominated the English and probably should have won and they should take care of business against the co-host tomorrow.

I can't get a read on the England/Sweden game and will likely pass. It's my perception, maybe not reality, that Sweden plays the English tough and could show well tomorrow, maybe steal the draw? Or does England get it done - tough call. I'm going to think on it, but likely pass.

GL to all.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

no yer perception on england and sweden is pure reality...1988-2006 sweden are undefeated v. 3 lions in competitive matches...2 wins 5 draws

 

[ERockMoney]

no yer perception on england and sweden is pure reality...1988-2006 sweden are undefeated v. 3 lions in competitive matches...2 wins 5 draws

CTLS - thank you, my memory is pretty solid, but as I get older I fear it is starting to slip a bit. It always seems like England and Sweden are matched up and its certainly never easy for the 3 lions.