ERockMoney 2018 World Cup Outlook

[ERockMoney]

Interesting group that should be a two-way battle for the top two spots, but Belgium is soft as butter and England choke with the best of them. Could a gritty Tunisia team find their way in? I doubt it, but the pending implosions from the top two are always a moment away. Belgium will likely save their collapse to the knockout stage and promptly succumb to the first side they play with a pulse. England should find their way through and it wouldn’t shock me if they won the group. I suspect the runner-up will face Columbia and the winner face Poland, Senegal or Japan. If England finishes second as I suspect, they could get past Columbia, but would be shredded by the Germans in the final 8. Belgium should handle Group H’s runner-up, but then would face Brazil, which would likely end their tournament.

Likely a pass on any futures here at this time.

 

[thebiggbird]

EROCK I was looking at lines at heritage and couldn't find any props on group A, any reason why? Tia

 

[ERockMoney]

Group H:

Winner:

Columbia +163
Poland +188
Senegal +500
Japan +800

To Qualify:

Columbia -188
Poland -167
Senegal +135
Japan +250

Not to Qualify:

Columbia +200
Poland +163
Senegal -138
Japan -250

 

[ERockMoney]

The tightest group according the bookmakers. I favor Columbia, but am also high on Senegal and one of the few relatively high on Japan. I’m certainly in the minority with the Japanese, as most expect a poor showing and last place finish. I think they squeak through in second, just behind the Columbians. This group is super tight and my favorite play is Poland not to qualify. This side continues to unimpress, even with Lewandowski up front. Poland play ultra-conservative and are quickly becoming the new Swiss. From everything I can gather, nothing much has changed with Poland’s approach, so expect a very dull, univentive game plan playing for the hopes of getting a Lewandowski goal and happy with the draw.

I do like this Columbian side and feel they could make a run, but are facing a brutal run of likely England, Germany and Spain to reach the finals and just can’t see them running that gauntlet. It would actually benefit Columbia to finish second and face Belgium, Brazil and France, which I find a significantly easier run to the finals.

More thoughts on this group up shortly.

 

[ERockMoney]

Columbia have the tools to make a run, but they need to open things up a bit more a play a more inspired type of game. They have tendency to sit back too often and lack aggression. Arsenal’s Ospina will guard the net and the formidable back line features Arias (Eindhoven), Mina (Barca), Sánchez (Spurs) and Fabra (Boca). The Columbians can grind teams down and prevent goals being scored, but at times it’s at the expense of scoring goals.

Their midfield needs a better performance than last WC and will feature a string defensive MF with Lerma (Levante) and Sanchez (Espanyol) with Cuadrado (Juve), Rodríguez (Bayern) and Uribe (Club America) in attacking MF roles. James Rodriguez was spectacular in the last WC and has been excellent since joining Bayern after a rough stretch with Real. He’s going to need more help this go around if this team is going to go deep.

Up front Falcao (Monaco) will be the lone striker, after missing 2014 due to injury. His role will be critical, as the Columbians tend to have issues scoring goals due to their style of play, but can play with the lead with the best of them. Carlos Bacca (Villarreal), Luis Muriel (Sevilla), Miguel Borja (Palmeiras) and Jose Izquierdo (Brighton) will provide support off the bench and give this side a deeper more talented attack than 2014. The question remains, will they unleash it? This is certainly one of the more boom or bust sides in the tourney who could fail to qualify from the group or find themselves in the semi-finals.

 

[ERockMoney]

Adding:

0.5 Poland not to qualify +163
0.3 Japan to qualify +250

 

[ERockMoney]

Latest odds: Winner

Brazil +450
Germamy +500
Spain +610
France +650
Argentina +1000
Belgium +1100
England +1800
Portugal +2700
Uruguay +3300
Croatia +3300
Columbia +4000

 

[ERockMoney]

Latest odds: Top Goal Scorer

Messi +1000
Neymar +1200
Griezmann +1400
Ronaldo +1600
Kane +1700
Jesus +2000
Werner +2000
Lukaku +2000
Cavani +3000
Suarez +3000
Lewandowski +3300
Muller +3300
Aguero +3300

 

[ERockMoney]

Adding:

2.0 Germany to win Group F -225
0.5 De Gea to win Golden Glove +400
0.3 Peru to qualify +225
0.3 Spain-Brazil Final +1800
0.2 Spain-Brazil Straight +3300
0.1 Spain-Cavani Winner/Leading scorer +20000

 

[ERockMoney]

Current Group Projections:

A: Uruguay 7, Russia 5, Saudi Arabia 3, Egypt 1
B: Spain 9, Morocco 4, Portugal 3, Iran 1
C: France 7, Peru 5, Denmark 4, Australia 0
D: Croatia 6, Nigeria 4, Iceland 4, Argentina 3
E: Brazil 7, Serbia 5, Swiss 4, Costa Rica 0
F: Germany 9, Sweden 4, Mexico 3, S Korea 1
G: Belgium 9, England 6, Tunisia 3, Panama 0
H: Columbia 7, Japan 4, Senegal 3, Poland 3

Not in love with Sweden ahead of Mexico, starting to think CR going to steal something from either Serbs or Swiss.

 

[ERockMoney]

I am in complete agreement with you re Uruguay and I’vealready backed them at 33/1 to win the tournament (I feel they are a genuinechance) I will also back them at other various stages….they will not beoverawed by facing any of the “big guns”

W&G,

Best of luck with your play. I think Uruguay may be the surprise of the tourney.

 

[ERockMoney]

EROCK I was looking at lines at heritage and couldn't find any props on group A, any reason why? Tia

That’s odd, I’m pretty sure they had a ton of futures up for several weeks.

 

[thebiggbird]

they said it would be up shortly, thanks for all the information, good reading and bol with all your plays

 

[ERockMoney]

Adding:

1.0 Uruguay/Russia straight +200
0.3 Spain/Morocco straight +650
0.2 Croatia/Nigeria straight +1800
0.2 Columbia/Japan straight +900
0.2 Poland to finish bottom +550
0.1 Argentina to finish bottom +3300

 

[Steiner69eR]

Always appreciate your insight. Thanks!

 

[pistol495]

Adding:

1.0 Uruguay/Russia straight +200
0.3 Spain/Morocco straight +650
0.2 Croatia/Nigeria straight +1800
0.2 Columbia/Japan straight +900
0.2 Poland to finish bottom +550
0.1 Argentina to finish bottom +3300

EROCK, what does a STRAIGHT tie up mean

 

[ERockMoney]

EROCK, what does a STRAIGHT tie up mean

It means the exact order of finish within the group, so Uruguay/Russia straight would mean Uruguay wins the group and Russia finishes second.

 

[ERockMoney]

Always appreciate your insight. Thanks!

Steiner,

I hope all is well with you and yours.

Best of luck in the tourney.

 

[ERockMoney]

Adding:

1.0 Brazil to win Group E -275

 

[ERockMoney]

Adding:

1.0 Brazil to win Group E -275 (increasing bet to 2.0 units)
1.0 Spain to reach semi-final +138
0.5 Columbia to reach quarter-final +210
0.5 Croatia to reach quarter-final +225