Ytd 51-71
- $3741
I realize that betting the board is never a good idea but I feel good about this weekend's games and really do like a side in each games. I'm gonna vary the units on each game and use the best line from my top 3 books. In addition to picking a side and a few over/unders, I'm also going to risk one unit ($100) on the first/last goalscorer in each match. This approach may completely break the bank, which I am aware of, but I've been reasonably disciplined all year and have decided to take a calculated risk this weekend in an attempt to get my negative balance for the year back to something resembling respectable (<$1000) by the New Year, and in order to do so I need to be aggressive. My bankroll to begin the year was $10,000 and I have consistently bet (1-3%) on games all year. I am over betting the card this weekend so follow with caution or feel free to fade !
Anyway here we go;
Man City U2 + 108 1 unit (Pinny)
City are very tough at home. Fulham abysmal on the road. Low scoring drab affair, I see a 0-0 or 1-0 Man City win.
Man City - .25 - 116 2 units (Pinny)
See above.
Arsenal O2.5 - 105 3 units (Bet 365)
I don't really see Newcastle scoring here but on the off chance they actually score off a set piece or the ball falls their way I like the over as I definatly see Arsenal scoring at least 2 against this Championship caliber defense.
Arsenal - 1.5 - 103 3 units (Pinny)
Arsenal are too good for this injury plagued relegation fight bound team. Not sure Roeder has the respect of his players, with all their injuries why is Luque, a $12m signing, not playing, and it shows. Martins may return, but really I dont see them scoring, and Arsenal will be tough to stop.
Chelsea - 1.75 + 101 5 units (Mansion)
I see a Chelsea win 2-0 at home (again). They get a predictable >30 minute goal as a result of good early pressure, sit on it, and most of the time add another goal in the second half, catching the opposition on the break away. A goal in each half will do nicely.
Bolton + .25 + 106 3 units (Mansion)
Missing Tim Cahill here is huge. Everton are tough at home granted, but they will miss him, Bolton are very good on the road. Really this is a classic example of taking the + .5 in a 50/50 toss up (I hope QL hasn't patented this move). Bolton could easily win this but i'll take the + .5 in this case as a draw would be very predictable.
Portsmouth U2.5 - 125 2 units (Pinny)
Portsmouth play a good, discplined style of football at home which leads to a lot of unders at Fratton Park. Watford do not have a lot of firepower, and that was before Marlon King got hurt. How will Watford score ?
Portsmouth - 189 3 units (Mansion)
Pompey are tough at the Fortress and I dont see Watford scoring. Should be a comfortable 1-0/2-0 for the hosts.
Reading - .5 + 101 2 units (Pinny)
Anyone that has paid an ounce of attention to my thread this year knows I have been fading Charlton since August at nice profit so far. Fade continues until they start hurting my bankroll.
Man Utd O2.5 - 106 3 UNITS (Pinny)
Man Utd are at full strenght and will score three goals to win this over by themselves.
Man Utd - 1.25 - 126 3 units (Mansion)
Despite being on the road, I see a very comfortable 3-0 win here.
Liverpool - .5 + 100 5 units (bet 365)
Biggest bet of the day. Despite M'boro's annoying habit of stepping it up against quality oppositin a week after shitting the bed to a basement dweller I like Liverpool here to bounce back from last weekends disaster. Gerrard starting in center midfield (finally !) will make a huge difference and spearhead a Liverpool victory.
First/last goalscorer .5 units on each
Man City - Richard Dunne 33/1
Arsenal - Thierry Henry 3/1
Chelsea - Drogba 3/1
Bolton - Hadji Diouf 8/1
Portsmouth - Kanu 11/2
Reading - Doyle 6/1
Man Utd - Ronaldo 6/1
Liverpool - Gerrard 9/1
Good Luck.
:drink:
hno:
uke1:
