Enough with the thought process that "Vegas knows"

[I_Need_Money]

Still not getting it Wang.

The point remains, if they knew what was up for this game, they would have set a super low total and gone to town with Over money. Sure they probably have a better feel for what's going to happen than most, but the point remains that they don't really know, just like none of us do. So using that rational as a capping tool when picking games is plain retarded. That is the point of all this.
Now sleep.

 

[RRC]

agreed...the argument of "betting against the public" as somehow giving credit to your pick or somehow that you're pick is better cuz the cattle minded dumb public doesn't know better or that vegas is trying to seduce the public... is a useless tool for determining the strength or weakness of your pick...

 

[theDonger]

"Basic Stuff". You're right man. you got it figured out. An industry that saddles Billions of $$$ from Juice and House Odds are intentionally manipulating the public. you could be right.

Do you think the Automatic Shuffle machines they use are programmed to give Vegas a better edge than if a normal human dealer shuffled. i do. so maybe you're right.

Those greedy bastards don't make enough of the juice that they try and manipulate more out of the public by finding games where they can score more money and programming shuffle machines where they win more...

It could be true. In those cases, stay away from shuffle machines... and i LOVE those games where vegas knows public perception is wrong and the lines are off... cuz those are the ones to bet big. but how do you know if you know what vegas knows or that you know more than the public?

Agreed-- I used to be a big blackjack player before I got into playing poker and I loathe those automatic shufflers.

I don't have all the answers and don't pretend to either. As far as identifying games where vegas in manipulating the line due to public perception, like I said, my bookie and I both bet in a similar fashion and have had length discussions about it.

The main thing we both tend to look at are the games that appear to be "easy" and then go against it. Often times these are lines that hang around -2.5 or -6.5, etc. Tonight was no different. He knew I was going to play Florida from earlier in the week and he himself was large on Florida. His main reasoning was that Florida was ranked #2 and is a favorite leaving the number 1 team in the country a 5-6pt dog. The perception is "This is the #1 team in the country and they're GETTING points?"

 

[theDonger]

Still not getting it Wang.

The point remains, if they knew what was up for this game, they would have set a super low total and gone to town with Over money. Sure they probably have a better feel for what's going to happen than most, but the point remains that they don't really know, just like none of us do. So using that rational as a capping tool when picking games is plain retarded. That is the point of all this.
Now sleep.

There are no sure things and vegas knows this. If they set a super low total of 46 tonight there is too much risk of the betting public loading up on the over and hitting it than say, setting the line at 70-- still making money at a 60-40 clip and minimizing the risk of a shootout. Its all about risk, reward, and potential outcome. There are no certainties, just probabilities. This is how vegas works man.

 

[Selectrick]

Why shouldn,t they have known? Millions of other people also "knew". j/k:lol:

 

[Marco]

Along with the total......if Vegas really knew the outcome then they'd have installed Oklahoma at +9.5 and watch the money come roaring in on a half-point loser.

 

[BBBILLY]

Agreed-- I used to be a big blackjack player before I got into playing poker and I loathe those automatic shufflers.

I don't have all the answers and don't pretend to either. As far as identifying games where vegas in manipulating the line due to public perception, like I said, my bookie and I both bet in a similar fashion and have had length discussions about it.

The main thing we both tend to look at are the games that appear to be "easy" and then go against it. Often times these are lines that hang around -2.5 or -6.5, etc. Tonight was no different. He knew I was going to play Florida from earlier in the week and he himself was large on Florida. His main reasoning was that Florida was ranked #2 and is a favorite leaving the number 1 team in the country a 5-6pt dog. The perception is "This is the #1 team in the country and they're GETTING points?"

Are you serious man? They were getting points because it was in Florida (practically a home game). You guys acting like you know all of this secret stuff kills me.. First of all the game opened at 1.5 and was run up to 6 because of the action. So please give us some more valuable insight. You obviously are pretty young and haven't been doing this very long. GL

:think2:BBB

 

[theDonger]

You obviously are pretty young and haven't been doing this very long. GL

You obviously didn't read my posts. If you had, you would have read the part where I say it doesn't necessarily happen ALL THE TIME and didn't necessarily happen yesterday. Hell what do I know, I'm not a linesmaker. But if you think Vegas doesn't manipulate spreads/totals to manipulate money one way or the other then it is you sir who hasn't been doing this very long. That or you haven't been paying attention. This is the business vegas is in: Odds, probable outcomes, winning and losing.

 

[6er]

why would they make the total 49? when they know people will take the over blindly?

and they arent palm readers they arenet expected to get ever game by a half a point haha

also with 4 minutes left it was a 3 point game, so without that last tebowish drive to lock the game up...they pretty much nailed it didnt they?

 

[I_Need_Money]

There are no sure things and vegas knows this. If they set a super low total of 46 tonight there is too much risk of the betting public loading up on the over and hitting it man.

My god, why are you just repeating what I say and pretending it's something different?
That IS the point. They DON'T know exactly what's going to happen, yet many here think they do, and bet accordingly. If they did know exactly, then they would have done what I said with the total.

Please don't quote this and say Vegas doesn't know what the outcome of the games will be, because that is the title of my thread. Ok.
And turn your damn avatar around Wang.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Funny thing is that they could play next week and the total wouldn't change that much...

 

[a153]

Vegas doesn't try to "seduce" bettors one way or the other...it's all numbers.

If they get more money on one side, they adjust the spread and try to get more money on the other side.... if the betting is way lopsided...they'll continue to adjust the spread and hope the majority is wrong....even if the majority is right and they lose, they have just as many games where the majority was wrong and vegas won. Their ultimate goal is to have equal $$$ on both sides and take the juice.

to me, you're the deluded one if you think vegas can predict the game and manipulate bettors...that sounds a bit...crazy.

Finally someone with a brain. It gets annoying reading all the posts about vegas trying to get you to do this and that and traps and all other bs.