Economic Depression

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Triple digit silver kook
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Stock indices at 18 month highs...meanwhile and currently in the real world

***An article for those that prefer to live with their eyes open instead of closed and ignore reality***

***On a positive note, many of these hotels may end up providing affordable apartments/condos***

***Those that can still afford vacations, hotels should remain in deal-making mode for a while***

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/hotels/2010-03-19-hotels19_CV_N.htm

Hard times send hotel industry into 'survival mode'

By Gary Stoller, USA TODAY

Neil Cornelssen says he misses the free cookies in the evening at one hotel and the daily newspaper outside his door at others.
He's also noticing that bath towels in a growing number of hotel rooms are shabby and need to be replaced.
Cornelssen, a sales manager in Marlton, N.J., is one of many frequent travelers who say they see the tangible effect that the recession has had on the nation's hotel industry. Among them: run-down rooms with fewer bathroom amenities, closed club lounges, fewer concierge staffers, slow room service, reduced hours at restaurants and bars, and infrequent airport shuttles.
"The unfortunate reality of today's marketplace," says Hotels magazine Editor-in-Chief Jeff Weinstein, is hotels are "more focused on saving cash than delivering the best service."
Hit by a declining demand for rooms, low room rates and plummeting revenue, hotel companies have laid off hundreds of thousands of employees and are struggling to maintain quality. A record number of hotels are defaulting on mortgage payments. Hundreds have been taken over in foreclosures, and some have closed or are about to.
"Because of the recession and the credit bust," says Ed Watkins, editor of the trade publication Lodging Hospitality, "it's the worst downturn in decades — perhaps ever."
As a result, says Robert Habeeb, president of Chicago's First Hospitality Group, which operates 40 hotels in eight states, "The industry is in survival mode."
The toll on the industry is told by startling numbers:
•In January, U.S. hotels had a record-low 45.1% occupancy rate — the lowest January rate since industry statistician Smith Travel Research began tracking data in 1987. Last year's rate — 54.8% — was the lowest ever recorded by the company.
•About 400,000 U.S. hotel employees were laid off during the past two years, says Joe McInerney, president of the American Hotel & Lodging Association. About 1.6 million hotel and motel employees remain, according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
•New hotel construction has declined significantly, reducing hotel companies' opportunities to grow their brands and increase revenue, says Mark Woodworth, president of Atlanta-based PKF Hospitality Research. Construction began on 78 new hotels in last year's fourth quarter, compared with 158 during the same months in 2007, according to Smith Travel Research.
•The total property value of U.S. hotels has fallen by up to 50% from its peak in 2007, according to Fitch Ratings, which provides ratings and analytical commentary to the world's credit markets. Such a drop has limited the ability of owners to sell hotels and improve their credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says.
•A record 15.7% of securitized hotel mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of last month, according to Trepp, which tracks commercial real estate loans. Securitized loans represent about a quarter of hotel loans.
In California alone, 330 of the state's 10,000 hotels have defaulted on mortgage payments since the start of 2009, says Alan Reay, president of Atlas Hospitality Group, a research and marketing company in Irvine, Calif.
Reay says 76 hotels in California and about 500 nationally have been taken over by lenders in foreclosure since the beginning of 2008. Most have continued to stay open for business.
"Banks don't want to take back the keys to distressed hotels in most situations," says Paul Heney of the trade publication Hotel & Motel Management. "They seem to be doing everything they can to negotiate with the ownership groups — to ride out the rest of this economic stress."
Closing a hotel is a huge risk, Heney says. Some believe "that the day a hotel closes its doors, it is worth 50% of what it was worth the day before," he says.
Some high-profile closures
Upscale hotels have been hit hardest, and some have closed.
The W Hotel in San Diego was turned over to lenders in September after its owner, Sunstone Hotel Investors, defaulted on a $65 million loan payment.
The Wyndham Drake in Oak Brook, Ill., closed a month later.
The Drake had "about $3 to $5 million in deferred maintenance when it was shut down," says Ted Mandigo, a hospitality consultant in Elmhurst, Ill. "It was struggling for occupancy and at a negative cash flow."
On May 2, The Ritz-Carlton, Lake Las Vegas, in Henderson, Nev., will close because of a decline in business, says Vivian Deuschl, the chain's vice president.
Meetings business decreased at many luxury hotels, Deuschl says, after Congress scolded insurance giant American International Group for spending about $400,000 at a luxury California resort following an $85 billion federal bailout in 2008.
Budget and non-luxury hotels haven't escaped the downturn.
Sunstone, which owns various Marriott, Hyatt, Hilton, Fairmont and Starwood hotels, has turned over 13 other hotels to lenders. They include the Renaissance Westchester in West Harrison, N.Y., the Marriott Ontario Airport in Ontario, Calif., the Hilton Long Island/Huntington in Melville, N.Y., and the Holiday Inn Downtown in San Diego.
Citing decreased business-travel spending, Extended Stay last June filed for bankruptcy court protection with a debt of $7.6 billion. Its 684 hotels, which cater primarily to guests staying at least 18 nights, remain open. The company has five hotel brands: Extended Stay America, Extended Stay Deluxe, Homestead Studio Suites Hotels, StudioPLUS Deluxe Studios and Crossland Economy Studios.
Despite the industry's deep financial woes, William Marks, managing director for San Francisco-based JMP Securities, says he doesn't believe the industry has been permanently altered.
"We are just experiencing the cyclical nature of the industry," he says. "Unfortunately, this is a more powerful downturn than normal."
More cuts, fewer upgrades
To cut costs, hotel employees now perform a variety of tasks, says Roberta Nedry of Hospitality Excellence, which provides service training for hotel employees. Some brands have replaced experienced concierges with lower-paid, inexperienced ones.
Hotels also have become more vigilant about turning off lights and lowering thermostats, and are closing wings or floors when occupancy is down, First Hospitality's Habeeb says.
Renovation and upgrades are being delayed, says Heney of Hotel & Motel Management.
"Many hotels just can't go through with upgrades, say to flat-screen TVs in guestrooms, as soon as they'd hoped," he says. "A room may not see new furniture but instead get new bedding, lighting and the like."
Hotels' food-and-beverage operations have also had to adjust.
Noticing a drop in corporate travel and spending, two San Antonio hotels — the Omni La Mansión del Rio and the Watermark Hotel & Spa — increased advertising to local residents.
"We were able to draw on new business that at one time may have been overlooked by our properties," says John Brand, the hotels' executive chef.
Managers at the Barona Resort & Casino in Lakeside, Calif., began noticing two years ago that guests were spending less on food and beverages, and dining more at the resort's less expensive restaurants.
Guests began sharing appetizers, skipping appetizers and dessert and ordering a glass instead of a bottle of wine, says Duncan Firth, a chef and restaurant manager at the resort.
In response, the resort instituted discount menus and half-price entrees for some gamblers. This month, one of the resort's restaurants is offering a $9.99 prime rib dinner and bringing back a 10-year-old menu "with prices to match," Firth says.
The opposite may be occurring at some revenue-starved hotels.
Kansas-based business traveler Robert Bender, chief architect for a technology company, says he's seen a big increase in food and beverage prices at hotels.
For guests: Low rates
In January, the average daily room rate in U.S. hotels was $93.93, a drop from $106.54 in January 2008 and the lowest for the month since 2005, according to Smith Travel Research. Similarly, the average room rate for all of 2009 — $97.68 — was the lowest since 2005.
Though the travel industry expects the number of travelers to increase this year, hotel experts don't foresee rates rising quickly.
"Despite early signs of a recovery toward the end of last year, few properties expect to raise prices," says Scott Booker, vice president of Hotels.com. "This could be another year of significant values for both business and leisure travelers worldwide."
Hotels "took a beating" during last year's fourth quarter from corporations demanding rock-bottom room and meeting rates for employees, says Jeff Higley of HotelNewsNow.com, an online trade publication.
McInerney, the president of the hotel trade group, acknowledges the difficulties negotiating in a buyer's market. But he says the country is slowly coming out of recession, and he sees "a little light at the end of the tunnel."
Executives of big hotel companies also see positive signs.
Though Marriott International had a 38% revenue decline and a $346 million loss for 2009, CEO J.W. Marriott last month said the fourth quarter's $106 million profit "exceeded our expectations" and returned the company to profitability.
Marriott said leisure travelers responded to "aggressive marketing campaigns," and business travel "showed signs of improvement." The company opened 38,000 rooms, trotted out two new brands, Edition and the Autograph Collection, and reduced debt by nearly $800 million in 2009, he said.
Matt Avril, hotel group president of Starwood Hotels & Resorts, says his company cut its debt by more than $1 billion and opened 83 hotels last year. Starwood has nine brands, including Sheraton, Westin and W Hotels.
Avril says the company, which lost $107 million in the fourth quarter, has seen a rebound in leisure and business travel, and has emerged from the recession "a battle-tested and more mature organization."
Watkins of Lodging Hospitality says that unlike the economic downturn in the late 1980s, when the industry operated at a loss, it's expected to turn a profit this year and in 2011.
That's possible, Watkins says, because the industry today is more disciplined, "dominated by large companies and savvy entrepreneurs" who are "more sophisticated in marketing and operational techniques."
"Times are tough," he says, "but many hotel owners are measuring that by the fact they can only order a new Mercedes every other year instead of every year."


@)
 

bushman
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I had a look at Uruguay.
Too flat and windy for me, apparently they get a ton of wind there, and nae hills.

They have a pretty unmatched record on the retention of private property though.

The big future problem is how much pollution from Brazils development is going to affect them.

As far as the recession is concerned it's a simple case of 'get some skills or a job they can't take away from you'
Which means retrain yourself if necessary, use time spent in front of the TV to become a useful human being, TV is infantile nonsense nowadays and really needs to be avoided.
The more you choose to become a captive of the system then the less secure you'll be, as many are discovering.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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http://video.iptv.org/video/1218530801

^^^ shows just how ridiculous the retail bubble is now in even in parts of Asia.

My recent trip to Asia it was very obvious their property bubble has morphed into a bubble that rivals what went on here earlier this decade and will end via a similar wipeout.

In several provinces I visited, people have used their entire life savings to purchase leases and open small retail stores, with plans to sell the lease years later for multiples higher than they paid. The stores are mostly empty and the only concern is selling the lease at a higher price to a greater fool. It won't end well when the music finally stops.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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good to see ya finally came around regarding china...if i remember right you were on the jimmy rodgers/schiff bandwagon that the western world was gonna collapse but china was gonna take off and was sound and sustainable.....

government intervention/"stimulus" whatever you wanna call it....into the marketplace....always ends badly at some point

the main question is when

china built a bunch of shit but very few of the billions can afford to use it
 

Triple digit silver kook
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the perma bears were wrong for many years regarding their building boom.

yeah building and prices rolled along for quite a while when perma doom and gloomers like you kept calling for a real estate crash. ive been there several times and the most recent trip i was utterly shocked at the amount of building that had happened and currently still happening. imo they have just gotten silly with building high-rise office buildings, expensive apartments and non-essential retail...as you mention most of their people cannot afford to use. however, most larger restaurants still were packed and appliance stores still were packed.

i said they would have their bumps along the road to prosperity. asian countries still have to deal with the business cycle. the difference with china and overall asia compared to the us is they still have pent up demand and savings while the us has spent its way into bankruptcy.

once i was told about the money being paid just to acquire an existing retail lease, i was convinced they were in final part of full bubble mode.

like all bubbles, the final stages become seemingly insane and anyone that watches that mall video now can see it with their own eyes. i havent seen that mall personally, but,...wow!

ive been to many cities far inland with massive office buildings, malls, and high-rise/high-dollar apartments, still being built and upon completion i honestly dont see any possibility of them being close to even half capacity.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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the problem with the chinese is they copycats but as far as being capitalists they got alot to learn and are about to learn a tough lesson

like the above guy building that monstrosity in the middle of nowhere just moronic

all over china they've done that shit...just build all this shit in the middle of nowhere.....but nobody can afford to use it.....

the problem with china long term is they just got too many poor people to deal with and keep content....

the economic prosperity for the few is creating massive inflation....hurting the little guy which is a bulk of their 1.3 billion people
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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you got alot of environmental problems and other crap too....

and now slowly but surely the need for better worker conditions and higher pay is creeping in...which means more costs

and cheaply made goods made there can quickly flow to cambodia or some other poor country to be our workhorse slaves......

don't think the west is a lost cause....i mean we still heading for global depression and got long term debt problems..........but people are slowly but surely learning their lesson.....starting to save......starting to learn the value of being debt free or low on debt and learn to live with less.....and american corporations will continue to be at the front and center of innovation that the world depends on......innovation and intelligence of the populace is what gives a country an edge in this day and age....not brute force slave labor stuff that china does for the most part

all the shit you see in china was invented or created by us....without us they wouldn't be having their industrial revolution we had a long time ago

in the end china depends on us more than we depend on them.....and all this talk about china dumping us bonds is total hogwash IMO
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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the idiot wanna be capitalists should allow shorting LOL

that's part of the problem with their equity markets.....no bids when shit gets dicey......lack of liquidity

also great/important point in the article about how their building is done with the cheapest materials

so when their economy finally grows enough to use all this garbage they built....it will be crumbling and need to be rebuilt anyway....LOL
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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bottom line building a bunch of crap anybody can make both domestically and exported to the world doesn't grow your economy long term

it may be a fun ride for a while....and an overheated one at that....but at some point its gonna end badly

innovation,technology, and intelligence of the overall populace is what grows economies over the long haul.....

the #1 problem i honestly see for america long term beyond all the fiscal stuff....is the brain drain and decrease in immigration....the US is what it is because we are a huge melting pot.....we bring in people looking for a better life.....they are motivated, work hard, and are rewarded with a better standard of living than they would be elsewhere...and that increases the standard of living for everybody...

problem A. post 9/11 we've made immigration a ridiculous hassle LEGAL immigation should be promoted at all costs...i'm all for the arizona law and protecting are borders...but i am super pro LEGAL immigration, doing it the right way....and there should be less hoops to jump through as well....#1 way to solve the housing crises in this country is attract foreigners to come here and live that have money and itelligence and such...

problem B. is our mounting debt and the worries of bankrupcy down the road....i'm guessing based on all the press and talk...there is fear as there should be....of someone from the outside looking in....to say why the hell would i want to go to america they are going bankrupt....so they may come here for their education or something but than go on home

problem C. bailout nation....again looking from the outside looking in people are like why the hell should i go to the us...they just becoming commufascists anyway...most people are fleeing communism or fascism of some sort to come to the us for a better.life.....if we got it here....the motivation to come here is lost....
 

Triple digit silver kook
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immigration cannot be debated as a blanket term. bottom line is america currently doesnt need more laborers coming here and we never should have given people illegally coming here access to any freebies. anchor babies and welfare trash ruined it for the immigrants coming here willing to work hard to better their lives. if people dont have capital to invest here or big $ to pay for college, the door should be closed for new entries.

i used to worry alot about mounting debt and pension/social security liabilities. eventhough i still think its a mess, lately after much thought i dont think its as large a mess. ive come to the conclusion that the us govt and/or more importantly the world bond market arent going to allow a bunch of govt workers' pensions bankrupt the country...the pensions will be reduced or altogether eliminated.

hopefully some of the tea party candidates win this november and some of the govt excess begins to disappear. unfortunately its likely the us will have to hit rock bottom before any real reform is forced.
 

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comment i found interesting below MR21's article regarding cheap chinese built buildings

I've been to China more than 35 times since 1998 on business.

Building and for that matter whole villages go up literally overnight. I only stay at the newest hotel in Shenzhen and saw how Holiday Inn's room disintegrated around window sills. Moved to newly built Crowne Plaza and it began to fall apart after 3 yrs. Moved to Intercontinental and it's in decent shape 2 plus years into it. I hear Holiday Inn finished in 2000 is a real dump now.

Cheating is so prevalent and construction crews will take bribes and allow sand filled concrete to be poured with much fewer rebars. Of course the receipt will show that correct cement mix and rebars were was brought. This even happens in factory floor for inferior raw materials and canteen where boss signs for 10 bags or rice when only 2 were delivered.

-------------------​

woof isolation and such is what made the 1st depression much worse than it shoulda been​

obviously illegal immigration, low skill laborers, welfare suckers are an issue and needs to be dealt with....the legal immigrants i know absolutely HATE illegals......but not promoting or being against legal immigration is slitting our own throats....educated immgrants don't "take jobs" as they work through their innovation and productivity increases thus creates a bigger pool of jobs.....jobs aren't stagnant variable.......we are what we are because we are a melting pot of immigrants looking to capture the ol american dream or whatever u wanna romatically call it......american needs fresh blood/ideas/input into our overall society.....as well as motivated individuals that weren't born with a silver spoon up their ass like most native born americans are.......society's that are closed become complacent, fixed in their mindset, etc....rot into garbage over the long haul....​
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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also on the illegal immigrantion issue.......a big reason we have seen such a huge influx of this problem in recent years can be tied to our unsustainable housing bubble, easy credit ways, and all that kind of shite....now that economy going into the shitter some of the problem is naturally taking care of itself as day workers that used to be standing on the corner of streets all across america are now slowly disappearing as they can't find work no more and are heading back to where they came from
 

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back in the "good ol' days" LOL illegals could get CC's and ATM machine homes with ease....there was a shitton of motivation for people to make that leap across the border beyond the left/right talking points of welfare and stuff like that....now not so much and many going the other way now that the easy ride has ended

now that shit has hit the fan....from talking with others just to refi a house they are asking for ridiculous amounts of documentation as it should be....
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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more on shoddy chinese construction methods

http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=326&catid=13&subcatid=84

bottom line central government planning always fails.....and will fail miserably in china as it always does

as money is throw around wildly with no company or entity with a direct vested interest overseeing the process.........the money inevitably is laced with corruption and a used to produce a poor product
 

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