Fuel to the Fire.
Recession at this point is inevitable. All of the positive-spinning correction talk analysts will be running for haircuts with all of the poor economic data coming out this week. This is from Mark D. Cook.
The S & P futures contract has reached a point whereby the environment is very implosive. I made a speech in New York City in February of 2000. I had very similar key readings then as I have now in the Cook Cumulative Tick indicator, fine tuned with some of my sentiment indicators. They are in the catastrophic zone, similar to the first quarter of 2000. I stood up before the standing room only audience and publicly stated I felt that a sizable correction was imminent. The audience was less than receptive as my words drove more than two dozen people to the exits. The month of April 2000 created such devastation to portfolios that it literally ended an era of investors.
2007 Will Be As 2000 Was
The old timers all know that the last index to make an all-time high is the Dow Jones Industrial average. Do you see this fact even discussed in the environment of 2007? Rarely, if at all. My favorite phrase of the ignorant and stupid is, "This time its different."
My background on the farm taught me years ago that one of the rare certainties is that cycles are repetitive. Those experienced in recognition of time lines as they are currently, realize that this isn't new but déjà vu. This has been, will be and should be accepted as the rules of the universe of trading.
I want to quantify the facts. Any market that becomes over-extended is on borrowed time. I am a student of the markets, all markets. The individual markets are a personality of those who trade that market or have a constant position. Currently, the S & P futures has one of the longest uninterrupted streaks of trading days without a 10% correction in history. Commodity historians realize that market over-extensions deplete fuel and the old adage, "the last one in is the last one out" is very applicable. Human nature is to pursue the pot of gold and when people perceive that others have found the pot of gold, the rush for their quest intensifies, a.k.a. the 1849 California Gold Rush.
Let's start with two of the times that have received decades of newsprint; the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Both of these catastrophic times followed an uninterrupted climb in the indices of 719 and 780 trading days, respectively. The current streak is just shy of 1000 trading days!
The 1929 correction was approximately 40%. The 1987 correction was 36%. Both of these events wreaked havoc in not just the decline, but the severity happening in the short time frame. My contention is that recognizing danger is paramount to survival. Any catalyst that manifests itself in the current environment to knock the proverbial slats from underneath this market opens a huge cavern to engulf prices.
The New York Stock Exchange announced in March of 2000 that margin debt was at 278.5 billion dollars. The severity of the decline was felt like a tidal wave by mid April of 2000. The New York Stock Exchange announced in February 2007 that the margin debt was an all-time record 285.6 billion dollars. Is another tidal wave already speeding toward the shore line? I think so!
My 30 years of trading has seen some rare events. The cycle of numbers is traceable, but the real underlying consistency is the general populace's aversion to the awareness of history. True impacts do not have lasting impressions to those who do not experience the events first hand. I would venture to say that very few hedge fund managers were directly influenced by 1987. More alarming is that many did not learn from the 2000 cavalcade of euphoria to panic.
I believe that the inflow of monies are sourced from foreigners. The reason I say this is because I am an old fashioned tape reader. The mechanism of tape reading gives a true feel of how monies are input and withdrawn. I watch the screen almost non-stop from beginning bell to closing bell and I see the same patterns appearing that have the DNA of foreign buying. They have a tendency to be all or nothing. The exodus will be like a stampede which is their tendency I have seen in years past.
My sentiment indicators just fell into a massive sell signal with this late February course of events. It is Déjà vu for me as the tale of the tape is not being heeded at all. The average of the previous four declines from environments similar to now is 29%, hence my title. Facts are facts and recognizing danger as opportunity is the way to longevity in successful trading.
Recession at this point is inevitable. All of the positive-spinning correction talk analysts will be running for haircuts with all of the poor economic data coming out this week. This is from Mark D. Cook.
29% Correction, March 2007
The S & P futures contract has reached a point whereby the environment is very implosive. I made a speech in New York City in February of 2000. I had very similar key readings then as I have now in the Cook Cumulative Tick indicator, fine tuned with some of my sentiment indicators. They are in the catastrophic zone, similar to the first quarter of 2000. I stood up before the standing room only audience and publicly stated I felt that a sizable correction was imminent. The audience was less than receptive as my words drove more than two dozen people to the exits. The month of April 2000 created such devastation to portfolios that it literally ended an era of investors.
2007 Will Be As 2000 Was
The old timers all know that the last index to make an all-time high is the Dow Jones Industrial average. Do you see this fact even discussed in the environment of 2007? Rarely, if at all. My favorite phrase of the ignorant and stupid is, "This time its different."
My background on the farm taught me years ago that one of the rare certainties is that cycles are repetitive. Those experienced in recognition of time lines as they are currently, realize that this isn't new but déjà vu. This has been, will be and should be accepted as the rules of the universe of trading.
I want to quantify the facts. Any market that becomes over-extended is on borrowed time. I am a student of the markets, all markets. The individual markets are a personality of those who trade that market or have a constant position. Currently, the S & P futures has one of the longest uninterrupted streaks of trading days without a 10% correction in history. Commodity historians realize that market over-extensions deplete fuel and the old adage, "the last one in is the last one out" is very applicable. Human nature is to pursue the pot of gold and when people perceive that others have found the pot of gold, the rush for their quest intensifies, a.k.a. the 1849 California Gold Rush.
Let's start with two of the times that have received decades of newsprint; the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Both of these catastrophic times followed an uninterrupted climb in the indices of 719 and 780 trading days, respectively. The current streak is just shy of 1000 trading days!
The 1929 correction was approximately 40%. The 1987 correction was 36%. Both of these events wreaked havoc in not just the decline, but the severity happening in the short time frame. My contention is that recognizing danger is paramount to survival. Any catalyst that manifests itself in the current environment to knock the proverbial slats from underneath this market opens a huge cavern to engulf prices.
The New York Stock Exchange announced in March of 2000 that margin debt was at 278.5 billion dollars. The severity of the decline was felt like a tidal wave by mid April of 2000. The New York Stock Exchange announced in February 2007 that the margin debt was an all-time record 285.6 billion dollars. Is another tidal wave already speeding toward the shore line? I think so!
My 30 years of trading has seen some rare events. The cycle of numbers is traceable, but the real underlying consistency is the general populace's aversion to the awareness of history. True impacts do not have lasting impressions to those who do not experience the events first hand. I would venture to say that very few hedge fund managers were directly influenced by 1987. More alarming is that many did not learn from the 2000 cavalcade of euphoria to panic.
I believe that the inflow of monies are sourced from foreigners. The reason I say this is because I am an old fashioned tape reader. The mechanism of tape reading gives a true feel of how monies are input and withdrawn. I watch the screen almost non-stop from beginning bell to closing bell and I see the same patterns appearing that have the DNA of foreign buying. They have a tendency to be all or nothing. The exodus will be like a stampede which is their tendency I have seen in years past.
My sentiment indicators just fell into a massive sell signal with this late February course of events. It is Déjà vu for me as the tale of the tape is not being heeded at all. The average of the previous four declines from environments similar to now is 29%, hence my title. Facts are facts and recognizing danger as opportunity is the way to longevity in successful trading.
nice article.....
i sold one today at 1416.50,,,,,,, this was a great entry as the daily high was 1418.75........................ then i proceded to wait all day on the big drop............... finally tired and exited near the close at 1409.50
made a nice 7pt profit ($350)
but i have the feeling that i should have stayed short overnight....... currently sitting at 1404........
i knew we would bounce today but i thought the bounce would be hit by a lot more selling.....
i think Uncle Ben may have helped today........
my outlook is now to sell every rally............ i just hate i gave up my good entry........ but then again, i ended the trade at 1409........
volitility will be the norm and to quick traders, this means cash........
i sold one today at 1416.50,,,,,,, this was a great entry as the daily high was 1418.75........................ then i proceded to wait all day on the big drop............... finally tired and exited near the close at 1409.50
made a nice 7pt profit ($350)
but i have the feeling that i should have stayed short overnight....... currently sitting at 1404........
i knew we would bounce today but i thought the bounce would be hit by a lot more selling.....
i think Uncle Ben may have helped today........
my outlook is now to sell every rally............ i just hate i gave up my good entry........ but then again, i ended the trade at 1409........
volitility will be the norm and to quick traders, this means cash........
i dont know............. im currently flat.....
i sold today at 1416.50 and got out at 1409.50
just was too unsure of going overnight.......... made a little change but if they hit this again, ill probably miss out on a lot.....
my broker is a pretty good technician and trades the emini alot...... he thought we would rally back to 1414 tonight but that hasnt happened (yet)...... currently 1404.50......... low of 1403..........
this is not my favorite market,,,,,,, well, i like it but im not as good with it, as i need to be....
im a pretty good Grain trader, actually quite good......... a decent emini trader.........
working on a concept now, that i used to use (late 90's).......... staying in the market at all times -------- and trailing a 13pt stop and reverse working order........
you know what im referring to, with a 13pt trailing stop and reverse order.
i sold today at 1416.50 and got out at 1409.50
just was too unsure of going overnight.......... made a little change but if they hit this again, ill probably miss out on a lot.....
my broker is a pretty good technician and trades the emini alot...... he thought we would rally back to 1414 tonight but that hasnt happened (yet)...... currently 1404.50......... low of 1403..........
this is not my favorite market,,,,,,, well, i like it but im not as good with it, as i need to be....
im a pretty good Grain trader, actually quite good......... a decent emini trader.........
working on a concept now, that i used to use (late 90's).......... staying in the market at all times -------- and trailing a 13pt stop and reverse working order........
you know what im referring to, with a 13pt trailing stop and reverse order.
currently have order working to sell at 1401....... currently 1394....
will cancel trade order if new lows are made..............
1390.25............ then 1389...... after that, all bets are off again.....
ultimate i have 1360 as first target........
shout out to broker,,,,,, above post of mine........... broker said a rally back to 1414 last night,,,,,,,,,, overnight high 1413.50............... almost dead on........
hang in there woof........
will cancel trade order if new lows are made..............
1390.25............ then 1389...... after that, all bets are off again.....
ultimate i have 1360 as first target........
shout out to broker,,,,,, above post of mine........... broker said a rally back to 1414 last night,,,,,,,,,, overnight high 1413.50............... almost dead on........
hang in there woof........
Someone on this board recently asked about live Asia index lines...well here you are:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Another Asia bloodbath.
SMS
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Another Asia bloodbath.
SMS
This dude continues to get hosed..................5 more years of prison added to the years he has already served-which was only supposed to have a max sentence of 18 mths (and this intitial stint in jail still has officially ended)......poor dude......CIA and the govt is and has been demanding that his company turnover his $60 million economic model..
[Martin A. Armstrong, the financial adviser who has spent seven years in jail on a contempt-of-court charge, was sentenced yesterday to five years in prison for running what prosecutors said was a $3 billion Ponzi scheme.
Judge John F. Keenan of the Federal District Court in Manhattan also ordered Mr. Armstrong, 57, to pay $80 million — plus one dollar — in restitution to the fraud victims.
His contempt charge stems from a related civil lawsuit filed by federal regulators. When he was unable to produce the gold bars and antique coins, as well as documents, that were requested by the government, the judge then overseeing the case, Richard Owen, ordered him jailed.
In most such cases, a person is held for contempt for 18 months at most, but Judge Owen repeatedly reimposed the jail time, demanding the production of the materials. He was removed from the case by a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in November.
Martin said,"Strangely there was not one wire tranfer of money from Princeton accounts into my personal accounts."
Martin was denied his trial, his lawyers money was taken away. The court never proved that any of the demanded items were purchased with money taken from Japanese investors. Martin was forced into a plea after being tortured in solitary confinement for days. There was never any evidence that Martin was profiting from a Ponzi scheme, but that didn't stop the judge from using that word.
The govenment is also trying to illegally aquire Martin's $60 million computer model that they tried to get in 1998.
This case stinks to high heaven, it is outrageous!
Martin's lawyer Mr. Cooper, a veteran defense attorney who said this was his last case before retirement, went out firing, saying his client was in a bizarre state of legal limbo because of Owen, the absurdity of which became complete when Keenan was unable to consider the civil contempt in determining the criminal sentence to give Armstrong."I've never seen a criminal case in which defendant has been subpoenaed to turn over the things he stole," he said."The fact we aren't allowed to talk about seven-plus years in prison for refusing to turn over items he is supposed to have stolen is crazy. If that's the law, it's crazy."The contempt was outrageous and everyone knows it was outrageous and Judge Owen was notorious for the outrageousness of his conduct," he said."Why did they take it away from Judge Owen? Because he was going to keep him in. The circuit was trying to say 'Let him out -- we are beginning to look draconian.'"
The implication or "wink" that the circuit gave to the lower court, he said, was "resolve" this matter, Cooper said,"But Judge Castel didn't catch the wink."]
[Martin A. Armstrong, the financial adviser who has spent seven years in jail on a contempt-of-court charge, was sentenced yesterday to five years in prison for running what prosecutors said was a $3 billion Ponzi scheme.
Judge John F. Keenan of the Federal District Court in Manhattan also ordered Mr. Armstrong, 57, to pay $80 million — plus one dollar — in restitution to the fraud victims.
His contempt charge stems from a related civil lawsuit filed by federal regulators. When he was unable to produce the gold bars and antique coins, as well as documents, that were requested by the government, the judge then overseeing the case, Richard Owen, ordered him jailed.
In most such cases, a person is held for contempt for 18 months at most, but Judge Owen repeatedly reimposed the jail time, demanding the production of the materials. He was removed from the case by a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in November.
Martin said,"Strangely there was not one wire tranfer of money from Princeton accounts into my personal accounts."
Martin was denied his trial, his lawyers money was taken away. The court never proved that any of the demanded items were purchased with money taken from Japanese investors. Martin was forced into a plea after being tortured in solitary confinement for days. There was never any evidence that Martin was profiting from a Ponzi scheme, but that didn't stop the judge from using that word.
The govenment is also trying to illegally aquire Martin's $60 million computer model that they tried to get in 1998.
This case stinks to high heaven, it is outrageous!
Martin's lawyer Mr. Cooper, a veteran defense attorney who said this was his last case before retirement, went out firing, saying his client was in a bizarre state of legal limbo because of Owen, the absurdity of which became complete when Keenan was unable to consider the civil contempt in determining the criminal sentence to give Armstrong."I've never seen a criminal case in which defendant has been subpoenaed to turn over the things he stole," he said."The fact we aren't allowed to talk about seven-plus years in prison for refusing to turn over items he is supposed to have stolen is crazy. If that's the law, it's crazy."The contempt was outrageous and everyone knows it was outrageous and Judge Owen was notorious for the outrageousness of his conduct," he said."Why did they take it away from Judge Owen? Because he was going to keep him in. The circuit was trying to say 'Let him out -- we are beginning to look draconian.'"
The implication or "wink" that the circuit gave to the lower court, he said, was "resolve" this matter, Cooper said,"But Judge Castel didn't catch the wink."]
