jaypaw - let's just say I "earned" the name. As I said, I was maybe a little too doped out to be doing writeups yesterday, as I got my facts a little confused
14-6 -14.43 lost my only play yesterday
For April 15th - a big card to make up for taxed today :lol: :
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -105
Zambrano a decent pitcher and should be able to handle Pit lineup. Fogg gave up 5 runs and 5 hits in 5 innnings against the Reds, so I think Cubs may be able to get some offense going, especially with the wind blowing out today.
Florida -1.5 +110
Apparently I'm on a run-line kick today. Montreal has been shut out for 24 straight innings, and Pavano is not bad. I see a blowout in the making here. But I am hesitant to lay the -150 on florida in case montreal does break out of its slump.
Colorado/Arizona under 13.5 even (2 units)
This is a pure contrarian play. Two pitchers that can be hit on, the light air in Colorado, and 18 runs scored last night (11 the night before that) says that this total has to go over, right? Well a lot has to happen to get to 14 runs. Hitters go cold, a pitcher can have a great night, etc. I feel happy taking the under on this huge line.
Milwaukee +144
Sheets pitched real well in his last start against the Astros, where Milwaukee won 6-1 against Redding.
Baltimore +180
I have a lot of faith in Ponson to have a great season this year. He pitched well in a win last time he faced Pedro. Pedro looked good last time out, but struggled against the Os in his first start. +180 is a very nice line for this matchup.
14-6 -14.43 lost my only play yesterday
For April 15th - a big card to make up for taxed today :lol: :
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -105
Zambrano a decent pitcher and should be able to handle Pit lineup. Fogg gave up 5 runs and 5 hits in 5 innnings against the Reds, so I think Cubs may be able to get some offense going, especially with the wind blowing out today.
Florida -1.5 +110
Apparently I'm on a run-line kick today. Montreal has been shut out for 24 straight innings, and Pavano is not bad. I see a blowout in the making here. But I am hesitant to lay the -150 on florida in case montreal does break out of its slump.
Colorado/Arizona under 13.5 even (2 units)
This is a pure contrarian play. Two pitchers that can be hit on, the light air in Colorado, and 18 runs scored last night (11 the night before that) says that this total has to go over, right? Well a lot has to happen to get to 14 runs. Hitters go cold, a pitcher can have a great night, etc. I feel happy taking the under on this huge line.
Milwaukee +144
Sheets pitched real well in his last start against the Astros, where Milwaukee won 6-1 against Redding.
Baltimore +180
I have a lot of faith in Ponson to have a great season this year. He pitched well in a win last time he faced Pedro. Pedro looked good last time out, but struggled against the Os in his first start. +180 is a very nice line for this matchup.
I think the same you do about balt but I wont be pulling the trigger
had pedro not thrown that error to first that allowed a run to score it may have been a different story
he didnt do that bad his first time out... he allowed 3 runs but 1 was the javy lopez homer, 1 was a result of the error, and the other was a residual result of the error - which left men in scoring position.
not saying the runs werent "earned" because of course they were his fault - however, I do give the weather (below 35 for much of the game) some of the blame the pedro error.
Also take note that ponson didnt do so great in that game - he gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in only 5.2 innings... However the sox grounded into 2 double plays and left many men on base (14 to be exact).
Also Timlin gave up 3 runs and 2 walks in only .2 innings... (1k)
This time I dont think they'll put timlin out there unless pedro leaves very early.
I suspect we'll see williamson maybe in the 7th and foulke in the 8th and 9th - maybe with embree going in somewhere in between to show them a lefty.
Another interesting note is that castillo will be in the pen today as well I believe - he used to log some good innings as a starter, was pushed into relief, then was traded I believe...
anyway thats why Im laying off.
GL though - with that payout all you gotta do is win one now and then to stay in the red
had pedro not thrown that error to first that allowed a run to score it may have been a different story
he didnt do that bad his first time out... he allowed 3 runs but 1 was the javy lopez homer, 1 was a result of the error, and the other was a residual result of the error - which left men in scoring position.
not saying the runs werent "earned" because of course they were his fault - however, I do give the weather (below 35 for much of the game) some of the blame the pedro error.
Also take note that ponson didnt do so great in that game - he gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in only 5.2 innings... However the sox grounded into 2 double plays and left many men on base (14 to be exact).
Also Timlin gave up 3 runs and 2 walks in only .2 innings... (1k)
This time I dont think they'll put timlin out there unless pedro leaves very early.
I suspect we'll see williamson maybe in the 7th and foulke in the 8th and 9th - maybe with embree going in somewhere in between to show them a lefty.
Another interesting note is that castillo will be in the pen today as well I believe - he used to log some good innings as a starter, was pushed into relief, then was traded I believe...
anyway thats why Im laying off.
GL though - with that payout all you gotta do is win one now and then to stay in the red
jaypaw - thanks for the comments. Had to go a couple extra innings, but we managed to pull out the win.
4-1 yesterday, only lost my 2 unit play (c'mon I was only off by 8 runs)
YTD: 18-9 +17.77
Don't see much early today, but I do like one at 7PM:
Boston +126
Boston -1.5 +210 (0.5 units)
Think wakefield can hang here and definitely like getting Boston as home dogs.
I may be back later with more from 8:00 on
4-1 yesterday, only lost my 2 unit play (c'mon I was only off by 8 runs)
YTD: 18-9 +17.77
Don't see much early today, but I do like one at 7PM:
Boston +126
Boston -1.5 +210 (0.5 units)
Think wakefield can hang here and definitely like getting Boston as home dogs.
I may be back later with more from 8:00 on
rest of the card:
Milwaukee +230
Just too much value here to pass up. Davis got hammered by the Astros last time out, but I have to think he can improve on that performance. Pure value play, but these do come in from time to time.
Colorado +220
The question is which Matt Morris are we going to see here: the 2-run, 5-hit complete game last time out, or the 6-inning, 7 run softball pitvher we saw opening day? Cardinals are overrated as is, and if Morris comes out flat, Colorado can get up to an early lead.
Arizona -111
Sure, the Big Unit has looked like the Big Disappointment his last 2 times out, but I have to think he still has it in him. Gotta take him at such a short price.
Milwaukee +230
Just too much value here to pass up. Davis got hammered by the Astros last time out, but I have to think he can improve on that performance. Pure value play, but these do come in from time to time.
Colorado +220
The question is which Matt Morris are we going to see here: the 2-run, 5-hit complete game last time out, or the 6-inning, 7 run softball pitvher we saw opening day? Cardinals are overrated as is, and if Morris comes out flat, Colorado can get up to an early lead.
Arizona -111
Sure, the Big Unit has looked like the Big Disappointment his last 2 times out, but I have to think he still has it in him. Gotta take him at such a short price.
Alright, here's the rest of saturday's card
yesterday: 3-2 +1.31
YTD: 21-11 +19.08
Milwaukee +155
We have two unproven pitchers, Kinney needs to show his best stuff to stay in the rotation. The high line here with 2 questionable pitchers presents a lot of value.
Tampa Bay -107
Zambrano has been hot, and although Schoeneweis has also been impressive, I am happy laying only a small number with Victor at home.
Oakland -110 (2 units)
Oakland -1.5 +160
Mulder is by far the superior pitcher. I am a little surprised that this line is close to a pick, since I capped Oakland as a heavy favorite. I will go with my own analysis and hit this game pretty hard.
yesterday: 3-2 +1.31
YTD: 21-11 +19.08
Milwaukee +155
We have two unproven pitchers, Kinney needs to show his best stuff to stay in the rotation. The high line here with 2 questionable pitchers presents a lot of value.
Tampa Bay -107
Zambrano has been hot, and although Schoeneweis has also been impressive, I am happy laying only a small number with Victor at home.
Oakland -110 (2 units)
Oakland -1.5 +160
Mulder is by far the superior pitcher. I am a little surprised that this line is close to a pick, since I capped Oakland as a heavy favorite. I will go with my own analysis and hit this game pretty hard.
on a bit of a losing streak lately, hopefully I can ratchet it up a bit tonight with a pretty big card
YTD: 22-17 +14.21
Florida -120
The only thing I see in Philly's favor is the home field. Willis has been hot (2-0, no runs allowed, andnote that he is also 6-6 at the plate as well)
Cinci -106
Acevedo has been pitching well, and the braves lineup in a bit banged up. The fact that Cinci has lost 3 of 5 and that the Braves swept Florida gives us a little more value on the reds tonight.
Milwaukee -1.5 +150
I like the way Sheets is pitching and have no faith in Arizona. Taking the run line because I expect this game (win or lose) to not be close at all.
Toronto -1.5 +210
This is a tough game to cap straight up for me, but think the alt RL has the best value. Too many questions about Pedro to take the Sox confidently. I would not be surprised to see him rebound, but I will also not be surprised to see him (and the rest of the Sox) underperform. Better than 2-1 with the home team seems like a decent bet to me.
Chicago White sox -117 (2 units)
Chicago White sox -1.5 +170 (1 unit)
Buehrle pitched well against the Yanks last time out. Yanks offense has been slumping. White Sox get to face a guy just called up from minors while they are at home, so I don't expect a huge game out of him and think the hitters will have a field day. I do believe this has some blowout potnetial, so I will place a small one on the RL as well.
Texas +128
This line has really come down, and for good reason. Ortiz did not pitch well against the Rangers last time out, and this might just be the cure for the Texas offense. Rogers has been decent and I think he has a good shot for the win tonight.
YTD: 22-17 +14.21
Florida -120
The only thing I see in Philly's favor is the home field. Willis has been hot (2-0, no runs allowed, andnote that he is also 6-6 at the plate as well)
Cinci -106
Acevedo has been pitching well, and the braves lineup in a bit banged up. The fact that Cinci has lost 3 of 5 and that the Braves swept Florida gives us a little more value on the reds tonight.
Milwaukee -1.5 +150
I like the way Sheets is pitching and have no faith in Arizona. Taking the run line because I expect this game (win or lose) to not be close at all.
Toronto -1.5 +210
This is a tough game to cap straight up for me, but think the alt RL has the best value. Too many questions about Pedro to take the Sox confidently. I would not be surprised to see him rebound, but I will also not be surprised to see him (and the rest of the Sox) underperform. Better than 2-1 with the home team seems like a decent bet to me.
Chicago White sox -117 (2 units)
Chicago White sox -1.5 +170 (1 unit)
Buehrle pitched well against the Yanks last time out. Yanks offense has been slumping. White Sox get to face a guy just called up from minors while they are at home, so I don't expect a huge game out of him and think the hitters will have a field day. I do believe this has some blowout potnetial, so I will place a small one on the RL as well.
Texas +128
This line has really come down, and for good reason. Ortiz did not pitch well against the Rangers last time out, and this might just be the cure for the Texas offense. Rogers has been decent and I think he has a good shot for the win tonight.
Yesterday 4-3 +0.44
YTD: 26-20 +14.65
For 4/21
Tampa Bay +150
Baltimore/Tampa under 9 -140
Both pitcchers have been pitching very well and I think they will continue tonight. I also will back the pretty big dog in what could be a pitchers duel.
Chicago White Sox +155
Yanks offense got back on track last night, but I still do not think they are playing well enough to be this big of a dog on the road, especially to the Sox.
Detroit +182
Radke has been impressive, but he did not do that well againt Detroit earlier this season, despite getting the W. Too big of a line for me to pass up here, and Cornejo did pitch decently against the Twins last time.
Texas +140
Dickey was good in his first start against the Angels, though he didn't look so great last time out. Lackey has been getting absolutely pounded lately.
YTD: 26-20 +14.65
For 4/21
Tampa Bay +150
Baltimore/Tampa under 9 -140
Both pitcchers have been pitching very well and I think they will continue tonight. I also will back the pretty big dog in what could be a pitchers duel.
Chicago White Sox +155
Yanks offense got back on track last night, but I still do not think they are playing well enough to be this big of a dog on the road, especially to the Sox.
Detroit +182
Radke has been impressive, but he did not do that well againt Detroit earlier this season, despite getting the W. Too big of a line for me to pass up here, and Cornejo did pitch decently against the Twins last time.
Texas +140
Dickey was good in his first start against the Angels, though he didn't look so great last time out. Lackey has been getting absolutely pounded lately.
Yesterday: 3-2 +2.32
YTD: 29-22 +16.97
Pittsburgh +142
Kip Wells has been pitching decently. Pittscburgh is 1-4 against the Cubs this year, and there will be extra motivation to steal this last game of the home stand. Tough to go against Wood and the Cubbies offense, but I will take the value on the big home dog.
Detroit +165
Sanatana has been struggling this year, so I can't understand why Minnesota is such a big favorite today. Maroth has been pitching decently and the bats have been adding some support.
Texas +185
Tough to go against Colon, but this line is just way too high since Park had a good game last time out and since I see all the offensive categories in favor of Texas.
Tampa Bay +150
Tough to predict how Moss will do, but ainsworth has not been that great and Tampa offense showed it can produce yesterday. Too much value in the line to pass up.
YTD: 29-22 +16.97
Pittsburgh +142
Kip Wells has been pitching decently. Pittscburgh is 1-4 against the Cubs this year, and there will be extra motivation to steal this last game of the home stand. Tough to go against Wood and the Cubbies offense, but I will take the value on the big home dog.
Detroit +165
Sanatana has been struggling this year, so I can't understand why Minnesota is such a big favorite today. Maroth has been pitching decently and the bats have been adding some support.
Texas +185
Tough to go against Colon, but this line is just way too high since Park had a good game last time out and since I see all the offensive categories in favor of Texas.
Tampa Bay +150
Tough to predict how Moss will do, but ainsworth has not been that great and Tampa offense showed it can produce yesterday. Too much value in the line to pass up.
tough day yesterday: 0-3 (1 no action) -3 units
YTD: 29-25 +13.97 units
for Friday:
Atlanta +161
Ortiz has not been pitching particularly well, but he did have a good outing against the Marlins last week. Beckett has definitely not been as great as expected, and he is still overrated due to his world series performance last year.
Tampa Bay +180
Loaiza is hot, but Zambrano has also been decent this season and I think +180 provides a decent value bet
YTD: 29-25 +13.97 units
for Friday:
Atlanta +161
Ortiz has not been pitching particularly well, but he did have a good outing against the Marlins last week. Beckett has definitely not been as great as expected, and he is still overrated due to his world series performance last year.
Tampa Bay +180
Loaiza is hot, but Zambrano has also been decent this season and I think +180 provides a decent value bet
1-1 yesterday
YTD: 30-26 +14.58
For Saturday:
Milwaukee +150
tough to go with a pitcher in his debut, but Williams has not been great, Brewers have been decent this year, so I'm going with the big home dog.
NYM +225
Sure Wood is good and Mets have been in an offensive slump, but this line is just way too hard and I think Yates will put in a decent performance today.
Oakland -128
Redman has been solid and Escobar has not lived up to expectations this year.
YTD: 30-26 +14.58
For Saturday:
Milwaukee +150
tough to go with a pitcher in his debut, but Williams has not been great, Brewers have been decent this year, so I'm going with the big home dog.
NYM +225
Sure Wood is good and Mets have been in an offensive slump, but this line is just way too hard and I think Yates will put in a decent performance today.
Oakland -128
Redman has been solid and Escobar has not lived up to expectations this year.
one winner yesterday
YTD: 32-28 +15 units
For Monday:
Cinci -111
Vogelsong has gotten hammered in his last two starts. Harang has been decent.
Chicago Cubs +112
Randy Johnson hasn't been pitching to form this year, while Zambrano has looked great. Chicago is also much better offensively
Atlanta +142
Schmidt will struggle against the Braves lineup. Martinez has pitched well and the atlanta bullpen should also be able to handle San Fran.
YTD: 32-28 +15 units
For Monday:
Cinci -111
Vogelsong has gotten hammered in his last two starts. Harang has been decent.
Chicago Cubs +112
Randy Johnson hasn't been pitching to form this year, while Zambrano has looked great. Chicago is also much better offensively
Atlanta +142
Schmidt will struggle against the Braves lineup. Martinez has pitched well and the atlanta bullpen should also be able to handle San Fran.
