the OPEC supply cuts were pretty strong at 10 million bbl/day, but unfortunately
demand reduction due to the conavirus is actually more (some estimates are 20+ million
bbl/day. in addition, the US, Canada, and a few others did not commit to any short term
supply cuts. viewing OPEC's recent contentiousness, many countries penchant for cheating on
production limits, and the uncertainty over future demand; it seems that the best way
for supply/demand to rebalance is through lower pricing thus driving out the higher
cost producing wells ( think Canadian oil sands production among others).
the recent pullback in oil prices in addition to the high yield bond fund pricing -
high yield bonds have a lot of oil/shale drill bonds. the fund got hammered in
the price war, rebounded last week in hope of an agreement, and now has
given up much of those gains; both indicate there is more blood to flow
in the oil market. i'm sure oil will get to $30/bbl, but it's more likely to
see the mid teens first.
demand reduction due to the conavirus is actually more (some estimates are 20+ million
bbl/day. in addition, the US, Canada, and a few others did not commit to any short term
supply cuts. viewing OPEC's recent contentiousness, many countries penchant for cheating on
production limits, and the uncertainty over future demand; it seems that the best way
for supply/demand to rebalance is through lower pricing thus driving out the higher
cost producing wells ( think Canadian oil sands production among others).
the recent pullback in oil prices in addition to the high yield bond fund pricing -
high yield bonds have a lot of oil/shale drill bonds. the fund got hammered in
the price war, rebounded last week in hope of an agreement, and now has
given up much of those gains; both indicate there is more blood to flow
in the oil market. i'm sure oil will get to $30/bbl, but it's more likely to
see the mid teens first.
This cut is going to end up being much larger then 10 million.
I can tell you now at these prices the US will be cutting at least 40%.
If demand ever comes back . This is setting up for for a huge boom in the future 3 years from now .
We are putting almost no money right now into drilling .
And if BSEE does not ease up on their lease rules many of these companies are going to lose their leases on many properties .
And if that happens it will set things back for years on the drilling end .
I can tell you now at these prices the US will be cutting at least 40%.
If demand ever comes back . This is setting up for for a huge boom in the future 3 years from now .
We are putting almost no money right now into drilling .
And if BSEE does not ease up on their lease rules many of these companies are going to lose their leases on many properties .
And if that happens it will set things back for years on the drilling end .
looks we r all in agreement. More importantly, world leaders feel its important OIL is not depressed, so much so that they have taken extraordinary measures to try to keep it afloat . These r unprecedented times. I've read they r running out of storage for excess supply?
anyway, what's everyone's take on Trump mulling over tariffs? Think Northern Star has already chimed in on it.
USO
6 mth daily
8 ema
vomit material, normally id never trade a chart like this, any bet up is a bet agasint the trend. But this asset 'needs' to go up and is under severe geopolitical pressure
trying to form a double bottom. Below the 8 ema, NO WAY can buy it as is..........i'm definitely watching. Obviously, if it loses this support longs need to Call 911
anyway, what's everyone's take on Trump mulling over tariffs? Think Northern Star has already chimed in on it.
USO
6 mth daily
8 ema
vomit material, normally id never trade a chart like this, any bet up is a bet agasint the trend. But this asset 'needs' to go up and is under severe geopolitical pressure
trying to form a double bottom. Below the 8 ema, NO WAY can buy it as is..........i'm definitely watching. Obviously, if it loses this support longs need to Call 911
not precisely, but if I could prepay for like 2,000 ++ gallons of heating oil and/ or gasoline at present prices and take delivery whenever on some kind of petroleum credit card, I would do so
clearly an oil dealer has to fill their trucks at the present price and can't guarantee heating oil at $1.40 two years from now.
something has to break, this price is not good for the economy overall, sounds great to the average bloke that likes gas under $2 in most states that doesn't see the bigger picture.
Explain what the average bloke doesn't get about cheap gas. Some over leveraged company isnt going to make the millions they were planning on? Well that is a crying shame. Here lets open the checkbook and bail them out so they can get back to making $$$
I guess I am in the camp of saving money for the average Joe is a good thing and let free market determine the price.
overleveraged oil/drilling companies may go out of business because they can't generate
enough revenue to pay their employees and previous financial committments.
a few going bust is bad but normal. an industry, especially an important
economic + strategic one, is very bad. an industry concentrated in areas
that support the president that goes bust, is a catastrophe, especially in
an election year. hope this helps.
enough revenue to pay their employees and previous financial committments.
a few going bust is bad but normal. an industry, especially an important
economic + strategic one, is very bad. an industry concentrated in areas
that support the president that goes bust, is a catastrophe, especially in
an election year. hope this helps.
yup, broke support , lower low. Would need a violent rally during cash hours so it ends the day with a long tail on the candle, and reclaiming support: that's on WTI futures chart . On USO's chart (#7) it will gap down and that same scenario will look like a long green candle, possibly engulfig the previous day's candle. That's the dream for the longs, keep in mind its below the 8 ema.
The bears are in control..big FAIL for this geopoltical effort. Let's see if trump presses the panic button and imposes tariffs . A lot of good paying jobs on the line in the shale industry.
[FONT="]“Low tariffs are what’s best for our globe and our business in the long term,” Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods said Tuesday”
[/FONT]
The bears are in control..big FAIL for this geopoltical effort. Let's see if trump presses the panic button and imposes tariffs . A lot of good paying jobs on the line in the shale industry.
[FONT="]“Low tariffs are what’s best for our globe and our business in the long term,” Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods said Tuesday”
[/FONT]
SA buying stock in American oil companies .
They know what’s going on .
Enjoy your 1.30 a gallon gas cause in a few years it’s gonna be 5.00 a gallon .
Shale gonna be completely out for a long time and it’s going to take years and years for us to catch up to demand once this destruction is over with .
Every bust is the birth of the next boom and this is the biggest bust of all time .
They know what’s going on .
Enjoy your 1.30 a gallon gas cause in a few years it’s gonna be 5.00 a gallon .
Shale gonna be completely out for a long time and it’s going to take years and years for us to catch up to demand once this destruction is over with .
Every bust is the birth of the next boom and this is the biggest bust of all time .
