Does it take a MATH GURU to win at GAMBLING?

[dimeplayersonly]

i will be in the minority with my belief on math-gurus and winning at sports betting..........


i dont care if you have a juris doctorate from MIT, HARVARD, YALE, and were spit out of steve hawkins.....that isnt going to assure that you will win in sports betting.......


i will concede that knowing numbers inside out, will give you the expertise when it comes to factors involving..........NUMBERS...OK you say what the hell is sports betting about then????

yes numbers are important but only a small part of the puzzle


but my dear people, so so many of you forget the psychological/emotional factor in gambling......


what happens to you when your calculations and formulas get slammed with .01 second to go on a bad beat????

how do you react??

keeping your emotions in check/money management/ are vastly more important than being able to give square roots of multiple numbers in your sleep.....accountants, stock brokers, NASA engineers and everyone else get spanked year in and year out if they cant manage a bankroll and they try to chase losses.......

 

[SSI]

i will be totally honest here, if i would just cap the games, and then do not watch any of them, merely check the scores the next day,,,, i would be so much more profitable.. i do not ever chase from day to day, my weakness comes from intra day chasing, lose early and then must fight the urge to play a late game for double.. if i merely wait until the next day, then the urge has passed and im able to begin anew, ive conquered this by about 50% and thus have been profitable a few years now in each sport..

 

[Journeyman]

i hear that SSI, I do the same damn dumb stuff!

 

[SSI]

Jman, ive actually watched less this year because of this.. and when i say less, i mean "less that ive bet on".. i dont bet the braves much, i did bet them tonight,, i may play an over occassionally with them.. when i beat this habit, i will make an even bigger killing, im almost there. its worse when football comes,, bet the early game and lose, then the chase is on.. if i can just place the bets and then walk, watch a game that im not on.. thats the ultimate, i can hit the 58-60% mark, its the intra day chase..

 

[oilman]

I agree with Dimes, very good comments.

I would add that you need the nerves of Ted Bundy, you must be a stone cold killer. You have be able shake off the huge losses that do come now and again.

Having strong math skills is a prerequisite to success, but there is no way it's the only skill you need.

 

[SINGURU]

COS,TAN OR SINGURU?

YES,IT IS PART OF MY MONIKER BUT NOT

ENTIRELY OF HANDICAPPING; I DO THINK THAT

MATHEMATICS GIVE YOU A GOOD START IN TERMS

OF TOOLS .

 

[ATX]

a lot of times math gets in the way

a lot of times math is the only reason for a play

the trick is knowing which method to apply on each event

the oddsmakers do the math for you, it's the choice that matters, and basic math/logic uncovers the exceptional value

most of the math gurus set off into this market with a solid foundation and plan and end up proving why no one, I mean they, can't win.

intuition is key

there are far less profitable markets out there

[This message was edited by ATX on July 26, 2003 at 03:12 AM.]

 

[gamblingislife]

When you can understand value and resist the urge to lay the points or chalk, you can win. Avoid chasing at all cost, keep a level head and stick with what is successful. And learn from mistakes by recognizing losing patterns. I'm no math wizard but i know value when i see it.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Journey,

You don't need to be a math wizard but you sure as hell need to RESPECT math. These are two very different things. If you have serious math limitations and you are aware of these and you get help when you can't figure something out you can be as successful as anyone. If, on the other hand, you say "fvck math, I've got a feeling here and I'm going with it" with any degree of frequency, you will be a guaranteed lifelong loser.

HABS,

Interesting observation and I agree, but the conclusion is not that math is not very important. I have noticed that math scholars tend to be very, very, VERY, risk averse. And the thing they are most afraid of is not losing money, but being wrong and looking like a fool. Academic environments are very safe for them. They never have to deal with subjects which are unfamiliar to them and so they feel good there. In sports betting there are so many factors at work that even the best of the best make lots of mistakes, and this is what the math geeks can't handle. Every year they will have to admit to themselves hundreds of times that they were wrong about something. Their psyche simply cannot handle that. So they choose (subconsciously) to sacrifice some money and freedom for the ultra secure environment of the university.

In reality these guys are only "D" or "E" wolves in the Darwinian scheme of things, despite their mathematical brilliance, because to be an "A" you have to be able to fight all comers. Society likes to portray them as A's or B's but make no mistake, this is only because they are non-threatening to the power centers and so this is a propaganda ploy to get very intelligent people who might revolt against the system to take on a docile, harmless role which ensures that their efforts are channeled towards benign ends.

 

[tgoodm1]

Great post Darryl Parsons!

 

[SixthSense]

I'll give you two examples, a case for both sides. These are very basic examples but I think they make the point.

Do you need to understand complex math to pay off your mortgage over 30 years? Of course not. But, if you understand prepaying your principal or using a 15 year loan you would save money, and you will be better off for it. Likewise, you can save money by refinancing. But, knowing math might help you get a better deal. So knowing math will probably make you more money in sports betting but it's not a prerequisite to being successful.

The other side of the coin might be knowing too much math. I heard last year a math guru studied fourth and one situations in the NFL. He concluded that even if you are on your own 10 yard line, you should go for it on fourth and one, no matter what point of the game you are at. His math doesn't take into account the emotions of the game and what that would do to a team if they failed and gave up a touchdown right after that. He was simply using math and not taking into account some of the unmeasurable events that take place.

You don't have to know math to be successful but it will help you become even more successful, assuming you don't take it too far, where it becomes an obstacle for you.

 

[ATX]

Parsons, that was a very good observation.

I never fully realized that was why a lot of the gurus act the way they do. The guru who engineered a lot of my sims can't grasp why I ever go against the software, even though my profit margin suffers if I don't. I keep his company for the sake of argument. He puts very little, if any, attention on nuances and team tendencies. My guess is because these factors are so very difficult to quantify, and just about anything outside the math is practically irrelevant to his line of thinking. And it seems that a calculation MUST be VERY complicated in order for it to be accurate, he is very defensive about these things, and I now see his sense of security is threatened by anything with a smaller probability than what his background in math has taught him. IMO, a lot of gurus fail to make adjustments for the human factor. Strict probability is better suited for cards and dice, and while the same math is a great outline for many sporting events it is just one of many aspects to include for an optimum distribution. It's almost like he's scared to have an opinion, if the wager loses it's the math's fault, even though it's common knowledge that the Baylor Bears football team sucks, for example.


Sixth, that was a good example. In the sports market I feel a lot of gurus put too much emphasis on past results to be predictive of today's events. A lot of times they feel that what has happened in prior matchups will continue, I usually look for the opposite to start to occur b/c of the human elment of adaption.

Dime, I think the psychological factors are the hardest to overcome. It's so hard to come back to the drawing board after relievers blow 4 run leads etc. I think it helps knowing I'll lose hundreds of wagers each year by design.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Box and ATS, thanks for the compliment. Glad you found it interesting.

Sixth and ATX, you make good points. I've thought about the 4th down stuff myself and I agree with the math guy. But I agree it boils down to perceptions, since pro sports is a show first and foremost, so they have to put a priority on how the fans and supporters will react. Another one is base stealing. I think it should be attempted MUCH more than it is, based on the success rates. But it shortens the game and a caught stealing sure can get a lot of boos.

And ATX, I have read and profited from your picks. Thanks and keep up the good capping. If I start getting some decent results, I may start posting picks too, but for now I'm doing pretty shlttily and I don't think too many people would be interested in mine.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

ATX..........quote "psycological factors are the hardest to overcome"


some might disagree with that statement............but who ever does isnt a bookmaker either.........

i always keep constant tabs on which players are winning consistantly, usually its the same ones year in and year out (sharps mostly) but if its a new player thats winning, i chart him....

i find out his betting method ie. playing steam, dogs,is he betting opening numbers?, following touts, or like in your case is he handicapping the games....


i can throw the guys off track who bet steam, dogs, oppening numbers, touts, with ease.....

now, guys like yourself ATX the ones who handicapp the games 24/7.........they are a harder to get out of a groove...but i can deal with your types too.....

g.l.

 

[ATX]

dime, the way I see it I've been relatively hot for 4 or 5 years. I'm only one day away from a bankrupting 300 game losing streak. If I cant adapt to the changing factors from day to day, month to month, season to season then I'm doomed. What works now wont work soon enough, IMO. I think that's part of the reason why people that had success in the past struggle in the present. You have to have an open mind and be able to change your views 180 degrees very quickly if need be, a lot of statistical methodology doesnt allow for that, and moves too slowly. I feel that if you look at a lot of math over the long term you wont beat the bookmaker over the long term, it's in the day-to-day where the weakness is. For example, if you took TB over the course of this season you would not be well, but if you pick your spots with them you can find value. I understand the people that rely on values for each half run over the last twenty years, but this is similar to what the oddsmaker uses, I feel the short term is more relevant in a lot of cases.

Dime, just out of curiousity, I was wondering what types of methods you employ to deal with people who get a little lucky too often?
I would assume it's limits and (gasp!) the dual line, and then (BOO!!) the boot, but I'm just guessing. You can always wager on the winner's plays, so I dont understand kicking out non-steam players. Just curious. You do have to know who the player is, Halloween is my favorite holiday, I love disguises.

 

[cecil+]

Great thread! Outstanding posts!

 

[lander]

"Great thread! Outstanding posts!"

Cecil,
Are you feeling ok? Let me re-read this a few dozen more times to verify, but I could have swore Cecil ACTUALLY said something positive

 

[dimeplayersonly]

ATX...........one of the good things about running a small book (150 for foots) is that me and my girls can keep tabs on everybody...

now first of all dont get the assumption that im GUESSING what people are going to play...that is a no-no that can bite you on the ass, also i dont spend all day trying to analyse how a man is handicapping games..... the majority of time i dont concern myself with people getting on hot streaks...just keep the line tight and be concerned with the overall book balance.....

dealing dual lines is ABSOLUTLEY PARAMOUNT to a small books success if they have "sharps" on the book..

if i can use sharp action they will get a line that reflects that, if not "pass" is the word of choice usen most often...

i have never kicked someone out for winning too much i go by the old rule of bookmaking which is "if the money is good book it".....i have had people have a winning football year only to turn around and blow it all back + some on baskets....happens all of the time..

as far is putting them on limits...im fortunate to have a base of "large betting squares" and that soaks up alot of sharp action...but i do cut limits drastically on baskets though..

 

[ATX]

thanks, dime. I appreciate you sharing. I wouldnt worry about someone getting hot either, it just makes them more likely to lose in the short term IMO.