Does anyone here FADE a capper after they`ve been on fire?

Journeyman · May 18, 2003

I agree JJ ...I have used that formula...If a guy has 6 picks and he`s 0-4 not likey to go 0-6...all according to the time of games too...Or if he`s won ...Again you have to know the capper..

Dante said a mouthful , you don`t fade certain guys even if they are on fire...Dogball is the one that comes to mind immediately..Never fade DOGBALL...The guy has late inning voodoo magic if need be

I`ve seen his act too many times

raiders72001 · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> The guy has late inning voodoo magic if need be <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

lander · May 18, 2003

What DuckStabber and Raiders said ..

this theory holds hold mathmatical advantage, so I suspect you would (on average) split the games you "fade" and lose on the vig.

TheGeneral+ · May 18, 2003

Doubling up is key.

Show me any capper in any forum who on average hits 4 in a row ATS before losing or loses 4 in a row ATS before winning & i will show you a bit more about this strategy.

raiders72001 · May 18, 2003

Some things that I'm reading here remind of people playing slots in Vegas. They watch a machine that hasn't hit in a while. They wait and watch someone feed the machine money. After the person walks away they run to the machine figuring the odds are with them. The machine has to hit now.

TheGeneral+ · May 18, 2003

Some of us cant help it because you got things to learn.

Journeyman · May 18, 2003

I ve played slots like three times in my life...Man nothing funnier than the fat lady outta quarters waiting for the change guy....Guarding it like a 10 dollar sundae

Banned4Life · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> General's methods are actually pretty good. If you see a guy 3-0 in early bases and has 2 more to go, the worst you will do is 1-1 most of the time <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is about the biggest bunch of crap I've ever heard. So just because a guy is 3-0 so far today means he can't go 5-0? That his chances of winning his next 2 games are less BECAUSE of his record in the first 3? That you actually think you can predict exactly WHEN a hot capper will suddenly turn cold??? I'm so glad there are guys out there who think like this keeping the sports books in business.

TheGeneral+ · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Show me any capper in any forum who on average hits 4 in a row ATS before losing or loses 4 in a row ATS before winning & i will show you a bit more about this strategy.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Damnit, I said i wouldnt argue this.

Journeyman · May 18, 2003

Banned ...that is one approach...Let me give another scenario, a little longer approach...

Lets say a capper who is known well in the sports forums and is tracked by The recordkeeper..Lets say he starts the first two months of the NBA season 50-30 ...

Now that could be fade time...

dogball · May 18, 2003

Dante- You have mail

JMAN- LOL , funny stuff, thanks

Raiders-
Re the slots and roulette- COmpletly agree. It is an intersting approach general is talking about, and I dont mean this as a slap to him but if he feels that way he should be booking. In sports betting it might have legs though. It is also surprising that general offers plays of his own in the picks forum if he is playing as stated above. In a lot of cases the book is going to win- in the long run, we both know that. Now general you are expressing that doubling is the key here, but at the same time say you have a limited bankroll. How far out will you take it if someone does go 5-0. Will you ride it out or pass and take the hit?

J2 · May 18, 2003

I love fading the perennial losers here at the rx, but even posters like rx-maniac can get on temporary hot streaks. One should never bet against someone who is hot, not even MFG.. Wait until they lose some. Betting against someone who posts 5 plays and is 4-0 is just plain stupid and don't even come with the due theory or law of averages.

raiders72001 · May 18, 2003

I agree with J2 here. If a guy has just gone 4-0 and you put a gun to my head and say this next play determines your life I'll say the guy will win. I will always play a streak.

Banned4Life · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> Lets say a capper who is known well in the sports forums and is tracked by The recordkeeper..Lets say he starts the first two months of the NBA season 50-30 ... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

And why choose this ARBITRARY point to start fading him? He could just as easily improve to 60-35 before turning cold. Or he may not turn cold before the end of the season... there are cappers who have compiled incredible records for entire seasons. Or better yet... Billy Walters could be posting his picks anonymously and you'd end up fading him straight to the poorhouse.

And I won't even get into what happens if you find more than one "fadable" capper, and they disagree on a game.

raiders72001 · May 18, 2003

Dog and Genera- The doubling theoury is very dangerous.

TheGeneral+ · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> It is also surprising that general offers plays of his own in the picks forum if he is playing as stated above. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

2 different worlds. I will post plays that i like, not necessarily all that I am playing.

If i see any capper post 3 or 4 losers in a row, then i would likely play a unit on the next game & double up for a couple thereafter for a couple games.

One must also understand that it is the trends that you are playing, not a particular capper all of the time. By playing on several cappers, one does not need to chase any one capper to the brink of a big loss. If maniac would hit 6 in a row, then why bother trying to chance more losses on him. There are others working for you at the same time.

TheGeneral+ · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by raiders72001:
Dog and Genera- The doubling theoury is very dangerous.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But, there is no need to instill all of your plays in one player. Use several & back of off the one who wins/loses past a comforting margin.

dogball · May 18, 2003

Raiders-
posted May 18, 2003 07:40 PM
I agree with J2 here. If a guy has just gone 4-0 and you put a gun to my head and say this next play determines your life I'll say the guy will win. I will always play a streak

Completly agree, i would walk the plank the same way..

also
Lets just say this is an understatement!!

" The doubling theoury is very dangerous"
Especially on a tight roll
Good luck

raiders72001 · May 18, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>" The doubling theoury is very dangerous"
Especially on a tight roll
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

J2 · May 18, 2003

You do have to know the capper before you fade. I have tracked the Rx-Maniac through all sports and have determined he is a perinnial loser. He got destroyed in the MLB, NFL and College Hoops and Football, but you even at the start of each of those sports I gave him a chance to prove he didn't suck at sports betting. He started off bad in all of them and I faded all throughout the seasons, but this NBA season he started off quite well.. After I lost 3 games in a row fading him, I stopped until I felt he would cool off. HE did great the first 3 months of the season. About midway through the NBA season he started back to picking roughly 50-50 and since I know his betting tendencies I figured he would go cold as much as he was hot early on. Talk about cold, he dropped 900 units in about 3 months. This MLB I gave him another chance, but this time I didnt start fading him constantly right away.. He started off good and was nailing totals and then starting losing ground again, but up to this far since he barely posts anymore I'm not sure what Im going to do with his picks when he posts again. He has been also known for the ole hidden ball trick a few times this year. To fade properly IMO you must know the capper and his tendencies and you will be successful.