A lot of these Arrieta lines have been in the -250 range, which seems ridiculous at face, but if you have bet it the last 24 times you are 23-1. That means if the line averages -250 and you bet to win 100 each time you are +2050.
The true line should be closer to -500 in some cases, as proven by the results. There are Arrieta games where I truly feel the Cubs would win 9 of 10 of them. If that is the true win probability in my mind and the posted line is -300, why not?
I know a lot of people who won't bet big faves cause they refuse to pay the juice. To me that is shortsighted, you're passing up half of the value spectrum. Value is value is value - discrepancy between posted line and true win probability. Whether that comes in the form of a big fave or a dog is irrelevant.
If you look at the top 5 most profitable teams to bet on this season all 5 most profitable teams are chalk teams like the cubs.
If you look at the top 5 least profitable teams this season they are all dog teams like the Braves.
So laying the chalk on the top 5 chalk teams this season has been profitable.
Taking the top 5 dog teams this season has been a blood bath.
So if you have been laying an average of -220 on the Cubs this season you are making money and if take the average of +180 on the Braves you are getting murdered.
And this is not just the Braves and Cubs. The same could be said for the other 4 most profitable and least profitable teams this season.
And if you go back 10 years this season is not an anomaly . It's pretty much the norm.
