Do

daringly · Aug 13, 2004

blue edwards wrote "I am going under the assumption that the closing line is the most accurate line."

This is not necessarily the case. If it is after the first wave of good syndicate action, the new price is probably right (before the steam follows). However, if it is either public money or weaker syndicate action, the price move is irrelevant, or simply wrong.

PanchoSanza · Aug 13, 2004

If he is a half run off to the closing line, you will beat him in the long run, no if ands or buts about it.

The problem is sticking to the plan, a short run of losses like you are experiencing may make you scrap the idea, don't.

It may not be until 100 plays or so until you are on top but you will get there.

blueedwards · Aug 13, 2004

pancho...that's what i am thinking.

blueedwards · Aug 13, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by daringly:
blue edwards wrote "I am going under the assumption that the closing line is the most accurate line."

This is not necessarily the case. If it is after the first wave of good syndicate action, the new price is probably right (before the steam follows). However, if it is either public money or weaker syndicate action, the price move is irrelevant, or simply wrong. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

i understand what you are saying but, is a move in baseball totals reflective of public action? i dont think so.

Moon88 · Aug 13, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by blue edwards:
pancho...that's what i am thinking. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Blue let us know how it goes. All the best.

I guess about 2/3 weeks you should be at about a hundred plays. GL

blueedwards · Aug 13, 2004

a hundred plays...no. its only about 1 or 2 per day that are off. i will keep you posted.

daringly · Aug 13, 2004

blue - I was only referring to sides. And there's a lot more than 1-2 per day that are off by 15 cents.

blueedwards · Aug 13, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by daringly:
blue - I was only referring to sides. And there's a lot more than 1-2 per day that are off by 15 cents. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

?

daringly · Aug 13, 2004

If a group has a long-term hold of 8% on MLB sides, this would suggest on games that they played, the line was off about 18 cents.

I'd say about 25% of the games have lines that open at least that much off. The closing lines on those games are only about 3 cents sharper, or still off am average of 15 cents. If a strong syndicate hits this game, the market tends to overreact though, and the closing line is sharper, even if the opposite side is now profitable.

When I talk about a line being off, I'm referring to the vig-price versus true odds. So if a game were lined at -105/-105, and the "true no vig line" were +125/-125, that would be an example of a 20c mistake. The juice gives the books a margin of error of 5 cents on either side (or less with an 8-cent line).

texas77 · Aug 13, 2004

I just read some articles in Football Illustrted from various renowned handicappers an their perspective as Wise Guys goes even further than dogs or favorites. You should read it.

TX

DarrylParsons · Aug 13, 2004

Blue,

If the best line on the opposite of what you play at your local is typically at Pinnacle, and if you are betting with zero (or negative) effective juice (when comparing the local's line to the Pinnacle line), then consider this...

Fading you would be simply placing system-type bets at Pinnacle. How easy or difficult do you think it is to make system plays against Pinnacle and win in the long run? Conclusion: Keep doing what you're doing.

blueedwards · Aug 13, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Darryl Parsons:
Blue,

If the best line on the opposite of what you play at your local is typically at Pinnacle, and if you are betting with zero (or negative) effective juice (when comparing the local's line to the Pinnacle line), then consider this...

Fading you would be simply placing system-type bets at Pinnacle. How easy or difficult do you think it is to make system plays against Pinnacle and win in the long run? Conclusion: Keep doing what you're doing. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

i agree darryl. thanks.

DarrylParsons · Aug 13, 2004

To respond also to OMT...

I believe the ever-evasive "optimal" strategy (which can only exist in theory) consists of betting about 75% dogs and 25% favs. Figuring out which ones, though, is the tricky part, so even if it's 100% true what I just said, it's not really saying much unfortunately.

SportSavant · Aug 14, 2004

blue,

the situation you have with your local is similar to a situation I have with my local here.

Mine is only open from 6pm to 7pm. However he always 'heavily' overexagerates many favorites & always charges -110 on baseball totals despite any movement etc...

In other words I often have Dogs available to me at MUCH greater odds than are available ONLINE or Totals that are about 1/2 point off similar to your situation...

Anyway... the way I have chosen to tackle the situation is to SCALP the positions while weighing the 'WEAK' Side a bit heavier.

FOR EXAMPLE:

Pinny may have a certain team -130, but my Bookie has the same team -150....

So I will bet the Dog with my Bookie at +140 & the favorite with Pinny at -130.... In order to maximize my position I usually weigh what I consider to be the weak side by betting more with my local at +140...

NOW HERE IS THE FUNNY PART:

I am way down with My Locak this year in MLB

Perhaps my Local is sharp on the game he over-exagerates... or perhaps it has just been bad luck...

My point is simply that although I do agree with Pancho & others that betting the 'WEAK' position over the long run 'SHOULD' be progfitable, it is far from a guarantee & you can go into some serious funks before you start to see the profits...

blueedwards · Aug 14, 2004

ss, i completely understand what you mean. the funk continues...1-4 today so far

hanover00 · Aug 14, 2004

There are some good comments in this thread. However, after years of playing bases successfully, I feel that there is only one way to consistently win. That is to do your own capping and bet the value whether it is a fav or a dog. Shopping for a line is the next step, but it is not a substitute for doing your homework. Your trying to shop the line without having any idea whether there's any value in the play to begin with at either price.

I approach football and baskets very differently, but baseball is a grind with no short cuts.

blueedwards · Aug 14, 2004

hanover, you are correct...i am betting the line moves and not capping. i thought it would work as well as the hoops did but it obviously is not. the thing is though, not only is it not working, it is now 3-12. that has to be a fluke. especially since the lines i am betting into are 7 hours old.

hanover00 · Aug 14, 2004

Yeah, I agree, 3-12 is just short term. If you keep it going it'll even out and probably be pretty random. I'll tell you, though, work on some capping, then use this guy's stale numbers and you'll be kicking ass.

Moon88 · Aug 15, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by hanover00:
Yeah, I agree, 3-12 is just short term. If you keep it going it'll even out and probably be pretty random. I'll tell you, though, work on some capping, then use this guy's stale numbers and you'll be kicking ass. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Great point and that's the bottom line.

LifeoftheSearchParty · Aug 16, 2004

Answer to original question:

In bases, it's best to play 1-3 games max. per day. When playing this small # of games, I have found it's more profitable in the long run to play mostly small favs (-130 or less) and maybe a small dog (+120 or less). If you are adamant about playing all dogs, you need to play 3-6 per day to be profitable.

I have been betting baseball successfully for 20 years, and I have examined all of these scenarios and the ones above have been the most successful. That being said, you still need to pick the CORRECT dogs and favs everyday but this blueprint will help. Good luck!