Do write-ups on games really matter? Whats your opinion?

[Dave007inVegas]

The LVH Super Contest is also only 85 total selections, which is far from a credible sample size. If someone can hit 58% assuming -110 against a pointspread over a large sample of plays they are likely one of the most successful gamblers in the world.

85 games if plenty creditable enough for me. I also believe there is a certain amount of luck involved with the LVH Super Contest. Fezzik won it back to back, this year he finished middle of the pack, does that make him any less of capper?

And 58% is misleading. The amount of the wagers makes the percentage moot. Lets say you make 10 wagers, one is for $200K and the rest are for $500. You win the $200K and lose the rest. Your winning percentage is 10% yet you are successful.

 

[JustinCruise]

I tend to agree with the original poster here.

You can create a writeup that makes any team look good. Just give me a winner.

 

[GoSooners]

Writeups do matter with most gamblers. A few of us RXers started a new college football website last year. And all of our followers and readers who wrote to us overwhelmingly preferred the writeups and reasons given for our picks whether they agreed with them or not..

 

[gynecologist]

Whats wrong with knowing why someone likes a team? I find it annoying when someone "never" (keyword:NEVER, not all the time) has an explanation for their selections, how can you really trust them unless they have a long history of success? Don't you want to know why they like something?

How someone could invest serious money following someone without knowing their method of operation is beyong my comprehension.

Also I like to exchange stats and thoughts on games.. Posting: Tigers -125 and nothing else helps no one other than the blind faders or followers. I won't even look into their threads if thats all they do.. Worthless thread imo.

One or two successful seasons means nothing, look at CHOPTALK, bucsfan among many, and I mean others..

 

[gynecologist]

I don't trust 98% of posters who NEVER post explanations with their selections.

How anyone else can is CRAZY! Whats so hard about mentioning a reason? Is there a reason?

This doesn't apply to everyone of course, I'm sure some just don't care about writeups but I think the reason some don't post writeups is because they don't really have a good reason for liking something.

 

[gynecologist]

How can you hate on sherwood:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=957030


He obviously knows his stuff. Someone who just post plays, how do you know?

 

[taylor13]

I think it's funny when somebody says, "I capped this game at 69-61 final". Shit cracks me up every time

 

[motowner]

Well most people you can tell with their writeup if they have any chance of being +EV or not. So if someone wanted to trail someone that didn't have an impeccable long-term track record, they could use their writeup (or lackthereof) to determine if they had any clue or not.

exactly

 

[NFLTrends]

Well most people you can tell with their writeup if they have any chance of being +EV or not. So if someone wanted to trail someone that didn't have an impeccable long-term track record, they could use their writeup (or lackthereof) to determine if they had any clue or not.

Here is one that someone posted recently that had me laughing my ass off at how assinine it was:


" I'll go with Nats/Marlins under 7. Florida has only scored 20 runs all year, with only 2 HR. Nationals can't hit left-hand pitching (Wade LeBlanc). Under is 8-1 in Miami's last 9 home games. And Monday nights are not usually high-scoring nights. On Mondays teams usually just want to get the games over with and will swing at anything.

With Zimmerman on the mound, the Nats won't feel they need score many runs to win, so they won't. And the Marlins just can't."




Think the total ended on 12 or 13....

But seriously?? Teams don't play and/or score any runs on Mondays? Nationals WONT score many runs, because Zimmerman is on the mound... so they will just score a couple and call it a day....

 

[nojuice9]

I enjoy when a poster put his reasoning with his selections. If someone makes a valid case or shares information on a game that is useful why wouldn't you enjoy getting that information? I see that some of the better forums requiring reasoning with the selections and book. In the end it doesn't really matter, as for me I prefer write-ups no matter how bad they are.

 

[RenoChazz]

A good salesman can give you a good write-up on both sides of the same game. A good capper will never give out his secret formula, or how he makes his picks cause it's his lively hood, so write-ups are fun, but for the most part give you nothing.

And 58% isn't impressive? That had me laughing. Yeah when you have thousands of people in a contest, with short term results, the luck factor alone will produce some good results. Show me a guy who's made 1000's of plays over years and years, and for argument sake let's make them all against −110 or you can average it to −110 against ML's and is hitting 58% and I'll show you a millionaire, which of I don't know any, so yeah 58% life time is Damn impressive.