Do point spread movements mean anything?

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For example, if I bet Michigan +4 @ the opening line, does it have a better chance of winning if the closing line is Michigan -1?


Seriously. of course a team +4 has a better chance of covering than if they were laying 1

You misunderstand the point. If I've ALREADY BET Mich at +4, does the Mich +4 bet have a greater chance of winning BECAUSE the public pushed the line from Mich +4 to Mich -2?

Or does it make no difference; the line movement simply means the public likes Michigan, and the public wins only 50% of the time (or worse the public wins less than 50% and the line movement shows you should've bet ND -4).

In short, are line movements "correct"?
 
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CoachLT is my Obi Wan Kenobi
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No it just means a lot of people are betting Michigan. Point spreads have nothing to do with the game and everything to do with making sure the money that is bet is equal on both sides. Bookies dont really care who wins or loses. They want even cash and they bank the vig.
 

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Good post

It looks to me that the off shore lines move much faster than Vegas lines.

Am I wrong on this?
 

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There is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Everytime I try to throw out my 2.5 cents, I end up getting chastised. My feelings are very fragile. d1g1t :nohead: d1g1t
 

Go Grizz!!!
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There is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Everytime I try to throw out my 2.5 cents, I end up getting chastised. My feelings are very fragile. d1g1t :nohead: d1g1t

Can I have a mulligan?

Would love to hear your 2.5 cents.
 

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What is very important and I don't know if people really understand this is it doesn't matter what the hell the public is on. It matters where the big money goes.

80% of public bets could be on Michigan at -4 but only 20% of the money could be on Michigan at that line. This means the Michigan backers are probably small-time recreational gamblers. If 80% of the money is on Notre Dame then you have something. The problem is no book will ever tell you where the money is on any game.

I'm a firm believer though in telling you that if a team has 75% of the public on them yet the line moves 3 points or more in the opposite direction as the public then you have a very strong play on the public underdog in your favor. The numbers are good and these plays win much more than they lose.
 

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There is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Everytime I try to throw out my 2.5 cents, I end up getting chastised. My feelings are very fragile. d1g1t :nohead: d1g1t


i want to hear your thoughts. i've always believed that moves only matter when they cross key numbers. moving a game from -4 to -6.5 is not as big a deal as going from -2.5 to -3.5.

books can move over dead numbers to suck people into "following the money." also, lots of moves have to do with books setting up teasers.

i think big bookie has some insights into the value of line moves. he always hints at it, but i've never heard him explain it.
 

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There is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Everytime I try to throw out my 2.5 cents, I end up getting chastised. My feelings are very fragile. d1g1t :nohead: d1g1t

I couldn't find any other posts from you on this thread. Did you post but delete them?
 

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