Dirtydog's Week #16 "BEST BET" with analysis.....with rest to follow.....Good Luck!!

[DIRTYDOG1]

If SD wins I think Den scores at will on Buff D who hasn't been able to stop anyone.

:howdy:Hello Ketch...

Actually its Denver that has the much weaker defense of these two teams as they are ranked 28th in the league in passing yards allowed versus Buffalo's 11th ranking, a look at rushing yardage allowed also shows that Denvers defense is much weaker as the Bronc's are ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed giving up 140 yds per game while Buffalo's defense is ranked 19th in that category allowing 114 yards per game...

...as a side note, I also believe this will be a higher scoring game than expected with both teams scoring in the 20's, the O/U total is currently 45 on this game, if that number falls to 44 I will probably play the OVER as well.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

%^_Hello everyone..

I thought I would go ahead and post my thoughts on a few others games:

I am seeing that a few people are liking Detroit this week, however, the truth of the matter is that these winless Pussy Cats have only covered the number 6 times all season and 5 of those 6 covers came on the road when they were being spotted double digits...

...meanwhile, the visiting Saints will not be affected by the loud dome noise as they play in a dome themselves and enter this contest with a record of 7-7 on the year and appear to be still playing hard, if nothing else 'Aint QB Drew Brees is one hell of a competitor and figures to come with his A-game as a means of avoiding a losing season.

Although I like the Steelers this week I am not personally getting involved in the Tenny--Pittsburgh game because 95% of America is on the Steelers this week which has caused a huge line shift and thus any value is gone...

...its true that Pittsburgh may be in "let down" mode having had a tough row to hoe with regard to their last three outings being against Balt, Dallas, and New England, however, in truth Tenny is banged up entering this contest and overall is a little "Over-rated" in my humble opinion as they have played a much earlier schedule to date that the one Pittsburgh faced and the Steelers appear to be on the up-tick while the Titans appear to be sliding a bit.

If it weren't for the weather situation in New England I honestly think I would make a play on the Arizona Cardinals plus the mega points they are getting, mainly because the Cards had a bad showing last week while the Patriots had a good showing (albiet against the lowly Raiders)..

...its true that West Coast teams traveling East have not had a good year, as a matter of fact the Niners were the only West Coast team to get a cover thus far, however, New England is beat up and is playing with has-beens on defense which does not bode well for them with this high powered Cardinal offense coming to town, an upset by the Cards really wouldn't surprise me at all.

I like Carolina over the Giants and if the line moves to Carolina +3.5 I will probably wager on those Panthers as the last two weeks has shown just how much the G-Men really do miss Plaxico Burress's downfield threat, the visiting Panthers have momentum on their side and they are on the proverbial up-tick while doubt and some infighting has set into the Giants in my humble opinion.

Not sure what to make of the Kansas City--Miami game, the indians appear to be playing hard still and their QB Tyler Thigpen from little ole Coastal Carolina college has been a welcome surprise as he continues to show improvement since the Chiefs have switched to a more wide open spread offense, meanwhile, the visiting Fish like to play a conservative style game that tends to play down to the competition.

Take care and good luck to us this week!!

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[thesportsforecaster]

l like the atlanta play for sure and iam thinkin of layin a few bucks on the rams now since frank gore is out

good luck on your games

TSF:toast:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

l like the atlanta play for sure and iam thinkin of layin a few bucks on the rams now since frank gore is out

good luck on your games

TSF:toast:

:howdy:Hello thesportsforecaster...

Yeah I really like Atlanta, I was hoping the number would go to +3.5 so I could pound it a little more, the line on the St Louis--Niners game has fallen from +5 to +3.5 because of the announcement that Gore was out..

Good luck to you my friend and be well

Dirtydog

:aktion033

 

[Michelangelo]

Excellent writeups on your games Dog.

Some things have not changed in ten years. Amazing how time flies. When we first crossed paths it was your pick of the week, St Louis vs Tennessee in the Super Bowl. Since then St Louis has only regressed while Tennessee bottomed out and is back near their SB form of ten years ago. Coaching and ownership mean everything in this game over the long haul.

Best of luck today.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Excellent writeups on your games Dog.

Some things have not changed in ten years. Amazing how time flies. When we first crossed paths it was your pick of the week, St Louis vs Tennessee in the Super Bowl. Since then St Louis has only regressed while Tennessee bottomed out and is back near their SB form of ten years ago. Coaching and ownership mean everything in this game over the long haul.

Best of luck today.
<!-- / message -->

:howdy:Hello Michelangelo...

Thank you for the kind words my friend and you entirely correct with regard to how time flies!! Once upoon a time the high school memories were still freshing ingrained in my ole pea brain and seemed like they happened just yesterday, now those memories are faded and seem like they happened to someone else!!

Its now 9:32 pm and the wife and I just got home from a Christmas party, man did they have one heck of a spread!! Speaking of spreads, as stated above I loved Carolina but really didn't want to get involved unless the line moved to Panthers +3.5....

Imagine my surprise when from the Christmas party I called the local book that I use from time to time to see what the line was on the Carolina--Giants game, man was I was SHOCKED when he said Giants -4 and 37.5...

...needless to say I promptly said "give me $500 on the Panthers, the Panthers are looking good at the moment as the game is almost at the half so I don't want to count my chickens on that one yet, however, my posted plays ended up going 4-1 ATS including that nice Best Bet winner on the Lambs.

Hey I really loved your write ups and analysis on the games this week, in my humble opinion you are definately one of the best I have ever seen at breaking down and analyzing the various stats and trends that most of us don't even think about.

Take care and be well my friend

Jim

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

I didn't get to post it here on this great forum last night because I was at a Christmas party with my beautiful wife, however, I called in a wager with one of the local books I use on the Carolina Panthers and was home from the party just prior to half time and saw the two teams retire to their respective locker rooms with Carolina winning by 8 points (21-13)...

...the two teams traded scores in the 3rd and 4th quarters but in the end the Panthers had a chance to win straight up with a Kasay 50 yard FG, unfortunately it looked like the holder tilted the ball a little to the right which consequently caused the ball to sail wide left.

As the game goes into OT I am sitting on the couch thinking to myself that I am still okay because I am sitting with Carolina +4 and I know that MOST over time games end with a FG, all of a sudden the Panther defense couldn't stop the Giant running game and needless to say Big Blue punches in a TD for the cover and win...ugghhhhhh!!

Ohhhhh well, on my actual posted plays this week I did pretty good in going 4-1 ATS and hopefully I will add to that winning tally with a nice win on MNF:

PLAYS SO FAR FOR THIS WEEK:

_____________________________________________________________

INDIANAPOLIS -6 over Jacksonville.....WINNER
2**Play Selection

DALLAS -4 over Baltimore....................LOSER
2**Play Selection

ST LOUIS +5 over San Fran................WINNER
5*****BEST BET

ATLANTA +3 over Minny.....................WINNER
3***Play Selection

BUFFALO +6.5 over Denver................WINNER
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________

GREEN BAY +4 over Chicago
Monday 12/22/08
2**Play Selection

Green Bay & Chicago.....OVER 40
Monday 12/22/08
2**Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________

The total on this contest opened at 43 but has since been bet down to 40 as most apparently think this will be a low scoring affair much like the last two get togethers between these divisional rivals which totaled 40 points and 42 points respectively.

A check of the ole history book reveals that 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams has seen 42 or less combined points scored and in the last three encounters that took place in Chi-Town the average total points scored was 33.6.

With that being said I really couldn't blame anyone for hopping on the UNDER 43 when that number was posted, the average point tally between these teams in their last three meetings is 43 (40,42,47) which of course is the number that the odds maker used as his opening total...

...in my humble opinion there is clearly "value" on playing the OVER in this contest now that the opening number has crossed over the key total number of 41 and dropped to 40.

Green Bay has exceeded the posted total in 8 of their 14 games this season to date and long term has gone OVER the total in 16 of their last 23 outings, the Packers only scored 16 points last week at Jacksonville but in their prior 5 games before playing at the Jags this GB team scored 21 or more points in each game and averaged 29 points per game in that 5 game span overall...

...as a matter of fact Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in 11 of their 14 games this season including the 37 they put up against these Bears in a 37-3 win back on November 16th at Lambeau Field.

Chicago meanwhile has scored 23 or more points in 3 of their last 4 outings and has gone OVER the posted total in 5 of their 7 home games this year, "Joe Public" still thinks of Chicago as a slow methodical offense but in truth this Bear team has averaged 23.6 points per game for the season overall.

This game means everything to the Bears as it could very well determine their playoff destiny, meanwhile, the visiting Packers enter this tilt with a mark of 5-9 straight up and have nothing to play for other than pride against a hated divisional rival, so I would look for the Packers to play nice and loose with a "bombs away" mentality as they air out the ball which in turn will force the Bears to do the same to keep pace on the score board.

The Packers have lost 4 straight games and overall have now lost 6 of their last 7 outings, however, 5 of those 7 losses were by 4 points or less, the Bears meanwhile have won 2 straight and won 3 of their last 4 but two of those wins were over southern teams Jacksonville and New Orleans at Soldier Field in December and the other win was at lowly St Louis...

In this match up the Bears will face a divisional opponent that knows them well and has nothing to play for but pride, its easy to make the assumption that the Packers will "pack it in" and they probably would have in this spot against any other team than the Bears with whom they have had a heated rivalry with since the beginning of time.

This is too many point to be spotting Green Bay as this game will probably be decided by a FG, the weather man is calling for a clear cold night so weather will not be a factor between two teams used to playing in frigit temps....I'll take the live doggie and the OVER.

Take care and be well my friends

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[Twisted]

Helluva day Sunday, NICE!!

GL Tonight, hope it is decided by 3

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Weather forecast and Details For Chicago, IL Monday, December 22




5 pm

4° F
Partly Cloudy

-10° F

Winds From WSW
10 mph


<!-- begin link spacer --><!-- end link spacer -->

<!-- hbhTRHour -->5:15 pm







<!-- hbhTRTab -->6 pm

4° F
Partly Cloudy

Winds From WSW
9 mph





<!-- hbhTRTab -->7 pm

4° F
Mostly Cloudy

Winds from WSW
9 mph



<!-- begin link spacer -->

<!-- hbhTRTab -->8 pm

6° F
Mostly Cloudy

Winds From WSW
8 mph

:smoker2:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Group_Header><TD class=Group_Header vAlign=top colSpan=3>INJURIES

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="100%" colSpan=3>GREEN BAY</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="25%">PLAYER</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">POS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="65%">DESCRIPTION</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD class=AlternatingData1>Justin Harrell</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>DT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>Out Week 16 (hip/back)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData2><TD class=AlternatingData2>Korey Hall</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>RB</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>Questionable Week 16 (knee)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD class=AlternatingData1>Brandon Jackson</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>RB</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>Questionable Week 16 (wrist)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData2><TD class=AlternatingData2>Chad Clifton</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>T</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>Probable Week 16 (thumbs/knees)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD class=AlternatingData1>Al Harris</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>CB</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>Probable Week 16 (shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData2><TD class=AlternatingData2>Tory Humphrey</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>TE</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>Probable Week 16 (concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD class=AlternatingData1>Charles
Woodson
</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>CB</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>Probable Week 16 (toe)</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="100%" colSpan=3>
CHICAGO
</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="25%">PLAYER</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">POS</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="65%">DESCRIPTION</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD class=AlternatingData1>Jason McKie</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>RB</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>Out Week 16 (quadricep)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData2><TD class=AlternatingData2>Marty Booker</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>WR</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>Questionable Week 16 (ribs)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD class=AlternatingData1>Matt Fort?td> <TD class=AlternatingData1>RB</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>Questionable Week 16 (toe)</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData2><TD class=AlternatingData2>Tommie Harris</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>DT</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>Probable Week 16 (knee)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=Group_Header><TD class=Group_Header colSpan=5>SUPERGRID

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="60%">http://stats.winningedge.com/NFL/supergrid/supergrid.asp?GameId=8231</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%"></TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">RANK</TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%"></TD><TD class=Column_Headers width="10%">RANK</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1>Green Bay's Overall Scoring vs Chicago's Overall Defense

</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>26.5</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>3</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>21.6</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>16 </TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2>Green Bay's Road Passing vs Chicago's Home Defense

</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>223.3</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>11</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>268.1</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>32</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1>Green Bay's Road Rushing vs Chicago's Home Defense

</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>90.4</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>23</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>88.0</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>6</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2>Chicago's Overall Scoring vs Green Bay's Overall Defense

</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>23.6</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>15</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>24.2</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>25</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1>Chicago's Home Passing vs Green Bay's Road Passing Defense

</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>201.6</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>18</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>190.3</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>7</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2>Chicago's Home Rushing vs Green Bay's Road Rushing Defense</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>94.6</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>28</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>132.9</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>21</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[tbonestk]

BOL tonite Dog....Let's cash this baby. :toast:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

BOL tonite Dog....Let's cash this baby. :toast:

:howdy:Hello tbonestk...

Thank you my friend, as a side note I am starting to see the number on the OVER creep up to 40.5 and 41 at some outs, I thought it would as the public loves to wager on nothing but the favorites and the OVERS, meaning that if you like a favorite or an OVER yourself you have to jump on it quickly.

I've got a buddy that's fairly well to do and as a hobby books a little on the side, anyway, I spoke to him a little bit ago and according to him practically ALL of this people were in the hole coming off Sunday and he isn't getting many calls on this MNF game...

...having a bad Sunday coupled with Christmas right around the corner must be making people a little leery of wagering any more this week.

Good luck to the both of us my friend!! Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Helluva day Sunday, NICE!!

GL Tonight, hope it is decided by 3
<!-- / message -->

%^_Hello Twisted_One...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, hopefully we can add two more W's to the ole win column tonight with Green Bay and the OVER!!

Take care and be well...

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

Well we finished out the week by cashing in a ticket on Green Bay +4 when the Bears kicked a FG in over time to snag the straight up win but failed to cover, however, had one of Green Bays FG's been a TD instead we would have also cashed the ticket on the OVER 40 as well, as it is we ended the week with a mark of 5-2 ATS for a 71.43% winning rate.

RECAP:


INDIANAPOLIS -6 over Jacksonville.....WINNER
2**Play Selection

DALLAS -4 over Baltimore....................LOSER
2**Play Selection

ST LOUIS +5 over San Fran................WINNER
5*****BEST BET

ATLANTA +3 over Minny.....................WINNER
3***Play Selection

BUFFALO +6.5 over Denver................WINNER
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________

GREEN BAY +4 over Chicago..............WINNER

Monday 12/22/08
2**Play Selection

Green Bay & Chicago.....OVER 40............LOSER
Monday 12/22/08
2**Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________


take care and be well

:wink::wink:

 

[FunnyCide+]

DIRTY DOG, NICE CALL MY MAN $$$$$$$ope:ope:ope:ope:ope: On that LAMBS Play

 

[Michelangelo]

Winner after winner.

Great week Dog.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Winner after winner.

Great week Dog.
<!-- / message -->

:howdy:Hello Michelangelo...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, man is it hard to believe that tomorrow is Christmas eve already, what the heck happened to 2008? It seems just like yesterday that the Media was causing mass hysteria with regard to the Y2K scare....and that was 9 years ago!!

Hopefully you and yours have a safe and joyful Christmas, take care and be well...

Jim

:toast:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

DIRTY DOG, NICE CALL MY MAN $$$$$$$ope:ope:ope:ope:ope: On that LAMBS Play

:howdy:Hello FunnyCide...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, have a very Merry Christmas!

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:toast: