DIRTYDOG's Super Bowl Selection with indepth analysis........Good Luck to all!!

DIRTYDOG1 · Jan 30, 2009

and remember he is from pittsburgh

:howdy:

dont you mean take care and be well myfriend?

Hello 6er...

Actually I am from Dunbar Pennsylvania which is roughly 45 to 50 miles south east of Pittsburgh, your moniker says that you are from Philadelphia Pennsylvania but like me you probably don't live in the city itself and instead live in the surrounding area...so what's your point?

I wear Converse tenny's when I play basketball, I wear Wolverine Thinsulate boots when I go hunting, and I much prefer to wear my Levi Strauss jeans over the Wranglers that I have in my closet...so what's your point?

If you are trying to make an inference to my selection of Pittsburgh over Arizona in this years Super Bowl based on my living in Pennsylvania and in that regard attempt to paint me as a "Homer" of sorts...you are entirely wrong and totally off base.

I have seen more than a few of your postings in other threads, the vast majority of your comments come off as inmature and usually lack any sort of relevancy at all.

If you are going to make an inference about something, make sure you know what you are talking about and can back up the claim or statement, for example...

...take a peek at my previous playoff threads leading up to the Super Bowl and you will see that I was on Arizona each of the three weeks in their playoff run over the likes of Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia, duhhhhhh I guess that means that I was being a Cardinal "Homer".

...instead of taking up space with your silly one-liners and instead of making silly remarks and looking foolish, why not attempt to actually do a little research on the subject at hand and refute what that person is saying with an intelligent answer?

Obviously you like Arizona to cover the posted point spread in this affair, so why not take a little time and in an intelligent manner list the reasons why?

Afterall, isn't this SUPPOSED to be a handicapping forum? Aren't we SUPPOSED to be exchanging ideas, theories, stats, trends, and any other information that in the long run will benefit us all?

Stop trying to be the class clown and grow up, maybe then people will start to take what you say seriously...

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

tbonestk · Jan 31, 2009

Hey DD, you're too diplomatic with the little punks.... I wouldn't :103631605

And thanks for your insights. It's been a nice playoff$$$ run :toast:

Deb12 · Jan 31, 2009

Hey DD, I don't know if you remember me or not but I started following you probably 10 years ago over at talksport before you went pro, you were the best capper I had ever seen then and judging by your most recent work nothing has changed.

I am glad to see you posting again, those on here that don't know you just don't realize how lucky they are that you are posting, don't let the little twerp bother you!

Deb12

CaptFlippy · Jan 31, 2009

DIRTYDOG1 said:
:howdy:
Hello 6er...

If you are asking about the written analysis as posted it is my work, all original and all mine...

If youare asking about the weather report it came directly from the weather.com website...

If you want my opinion on the total, I think it goes OVER.

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:

Nice write-up; and I would just like to add some food for thought on your over "opinion". I would almost have to believe that with Pitt winning this game it would stay under, had you projected Arizona I would say "over". My thought process and mind you it is only my opinion is that if the Cards can find a way to score against the Pitt D, they should win because I don't think Pitt can keep up offensively with Arizona. On the Other hand if Pitt stops the Arizona offense they will score enough points to win and probably cover and dedicate the majority of the game to a slow painfull ground attack using as much of the clock as possible keeping Arizona off the field as much as possible. Just my opinion, good luck!

Gravy · Jan 31, 2009

DirtyDog,I just wanted to say the BOL on your Pittsburgh Steelers pick on Sunday and thanks alot for your insightfull knowledge that you provide on the RX and hope to see you next year.Gravy :103631605

6er · Jan 31, 2009

i am sorry but maybe i could take you more serious if you didnt post 15 steelers fight songs prior to you obvious write up.

good luck i am still undecided.

:homer:

DIRTYDOG1 · Jan 31, 2009

i am sorry but maybe i could take you more serious if you didnt post 15 steelers fight songs prior to you obvious write up.

:howdy:
Hello 6er...

Yes I started a thread entitled "Steeler fight songs", I would have also started on entitled "Cardinal fight songs"...unfortunately I couldn't find any.

I am STILL waiting for you to refute anything that I said in my written analysis or for that matter lay out an intelligent arguement as to why the Cardinals will defeat Pittsburgh and take home the trophy.

take care and be well

Dirtydog

hno:

6er · Jan 31, 2009

6er said:
good luck i am still undecided.

:bigfinger

DIRTYDOG1 · Jan 31, 2009

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by 6er

good luck i am still undecided.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:howdy:
Hello 6er...

Apparently you are NOT TOO UNDECIDED because I saw the thread you started entitled "Reverse juice logic" in which you picked Pittsburgh -7 to win the Super Bowl...

...obviously you should have entitled your thread "Dirtydog makes sense so I will follow what he does".

What a joke you are, by the way, you really should know better than bringing a knife to a gun fight you knuckle-head.

P.S.

I appologize to anyone else reading this, normally I do not allow myself to stoop to the same level as this knuckle-head 6er, however, this idiot is simply too much.

Take care and be well

Dirtydog
:wink:

DIRTYDOG1 · Jan 31, 2009

Hey DD, you're too diplomatic with the little punks.... I wouldn't

And thanks for your insights. It's been a nice playoff$$$ run

:howdy:
Hello tbonestk...

Thanks for the kind words my friend, however, unfortunately I did let the dweb get under my skin a little and for that I do appologize.

Thanks again and take care sir!

Dirtydog
:toast:

DIRTYDOG1 · Jan 31, 2009

Hey DD, I don't know if you remember me or not but I started following you probably 10 years ago over at talksport before you went pro, you were the best capper I had ever seen then and judging by your most recent work nothing has changed.

I am glad to see you posting again, those on here that don't know you just don't realize how lucky they are that you are posting, don't let the little twerp bother you!

:howdy:
Hello Deb12...

Thanks for your kind words my friend, you have a long memory if you remember me from my Talksport days, incidently Michaelangelo is posting on this forum as well.

I've had another good year in that I finished the regular season collecting on 59.12% of my NFL selections and 58.56% of my College plays, so far in this years NFL playoffs I am 7-2 ATS, hopefully I can close out the NFL season with one more win.

Thanks again and take care my friend

Dirtydog
:103631605

6er · Jan 31, 2009

went pro?

so your a tout?

:lol:

DIRTYDOG1 · Jan 31, 2009

Nice write-up; and I would just like to add some food for thought on your over "opinion". I would almost have to believe that with Pitt winning this game it would stay under, had you projected Arizona I would say "over". My thought process and mind you it is only my opinion is that if the Cards can find a way to score against the Pitt D, they should win because I don't think Pitt can keep up offensively with Arizona. On the Other hand if Pitt stops the Arizona offense they will score enough points to win and probably cover and dedicate the majority of the game to a slow painfull ground attack using as much of the clock as possible keeping Arizona off the field as much as possible. Just my opinion, good luck!

:howdy:
Hello CaptFlippy...

I was asked almost the very same question by doogieboy with regard to why my "Opinion" would be to the OVER in this contest, my response was that I could see Pittsburgh winning by finals of 34-17 or 37-20...

...which of course would be OVER the posted number, however, in the big picture it really wouldn't surprise me to see the Steelers winning by finals of 27-13 or 31-10 which would be UNDER the posted total.

In the end I may go ahead and in addition to my Pittsburgh -7 selection may also place a small parlay on Pittsburgh and OVER, however, I am still undecided with regard to the parlay.

Here's a little nugget for you, Pittsburgh's offense played 11 games this year against teams with defense's ranked in the top 12 in the NFL and averaged just over 22 points per game in those affairs...

...in this contest Pittsburgh will face an Arizona defense that finished the regular season ranked 19th overall and 22nd against the pass, in addition to that the Cardinal defense ranked a porous 28th in the NFL in points allowed overall and gave up a whopping 29 points per game when away from home.

Here's another little tidbit, the Steelers played five of their eight road games against teams with defenses ranked in the top 8 in the NFL in terms of points allowed (Tenny #2, Balt #3, Philly #4, Wash #5, and New England #8), as already mentioned Pittsburgh will face an Arizona defense ranked #28 in points allowed.

Hope that helps, take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog
:wink:

ThEjAcK · Jan 31, 2009

Hey DirtyDog I was just wondering if you are going to wager on a Prop bet. I know Doggieboy already has asked this question but im thinking you might have overlooked his since you usually answer everyone's post. If not thanks again and best of luck again. :toast:

DIRTYDOG1 · Feb 1, 2009

Hey DirtyDog I was just wondering if you are going to wager on a Prop bet. I know Doggieboy already has asked this question but im thinking you might have overlooked his since you usually answer everyone's post. If not thanks again and best of luck again.

:howdy:
Hello ThE jAcK...

Thanks for the question with regard to prop plays for this years Super Bowl, I usually wait until the day before or the day of before making any prop wagers, mainly because I want to see the latest injury and weather reports.

Like mostly everyone else in this great country I also enjoy making a few prop wagers during the Super Bowl, however, my advise is: DO NOT GO OVER BOARD with too many prop bets...

...afterall, what's the sense of being correct and cashing a ticket with either the side or total in the Super Bowl but then losing all of that back and some times more on prop plays?

The best way to handle prop betting in my humble opinion is to first handicap the game itself and then pick the team that you think will win and/or lose, play the game out in your head with regard to the strengths, weaknesses, and match ups between the two teams...

...commit your thoughts to paper along with your reasoning as to why you think this will happen or that will happen, at this point hopefully everyone has three or four different outs or shops to wager with...

...mainly because there are times where you will find HUGE differences from one shop to another shop with regard to what the line is or payoff is on a particular prop play.

I usually go online and print out the prop wager sheets from the different outs that I use and study them side by side so that I can more readily spot any glaring differences from shop to shop on particular prop plays.

Anyway, if you've already read my analysis on the Super Bowl itself then you already know that I favor Pittsburgh to win the game by somewhere between 14 to 17 points...

...I also have a lean towards the OVER in the contest but not enough to wager on it, however, I may in the end go ahead and place a small parlay wager on Pittsburgh and OVER in addition to my Pittsburgh -7 selection, I also think that Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is going to have a huge day and in the end be this years Super Bowl MVP.

Thusly, with the above in mind here are my prop wagers for this year, each prop wager is for a 1/2 unit:

1.) Pittsburgh team points OVER 27...the Steelers have averaged 28.5 points per game over their last eight outings and in their last three games have averaged 29.7 points per game, on the flip side of things Arizona has allowed 25.68 points per game for the year thus far and in their last six outings have allowed an average of 27.5 points per game.

2.) Total Pass Completions by Pittsburgh OVER 17.5...for the season the Steeler offense has averaged 18.7 completions per game and has averaged 19.6 completions per game in their last five outings, given the fact that Arizona figures to score some points it only makes sense that the Steelers will come out throwing the ball...

...on the flip side of things the Arizona defense has allowed an average of 20.7 pass completions per game and in the Cardinals three playoff games this year they have allowed 23.7 completions per game.

3.) Hines Ward total reception yards OVER 64.5...the total receptions number on this prop opened at 73.5 but has been bet down to its current number of 64.5, mainly because of the uncertain status of Ward's health, by all indications Hines Ward will play and if he plays he will indeed produce.

Keep in mind that Ward is Pittsburgh's main possession reciever and is also QB Roethlisberger's favorite target, a quick check backwards shows that Ward has talled more than 69 recieving yards in four of this last five outings, the only game in this span that he fell short was in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore when he was hurt and forced to leave the game, even so he still had 55 yards in that affair.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

doogieboy · Feb 1, 2009

thanks DD1
GL today

DIRTYDOG1 · Feb 1, 2009

thanks DD1 GL today

:howdy:
Hello doogieboy...

No problem sir and good luck to you as well!

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:toast:

goode05 · Feb 1, 2009

Dirty I have a feeling this game goes under the total, I think had it been played last week it would have been an over but I think the cards sitting around for 2 weeks just gave them 2 much time to think about what they are actually playen for. Warner is the only one with any experience I could see a lot of false starts and holding calls maybe even a few drops. The first quarter will probably be very low scoring. when pit goes up by 10 I can see them just bleeding the clock. Thats the only thing that scares me about playing them is a late garbage score by cards. I think Im goen with a big teaser pitt and under. good luck and represent the afc north and I hope you post here next year really enjoy reading your points even if I dont agree with all of them:toast:

DIRTYDOG1 · Feb 1, 2009

:howdy:
Hello my friends...

I've been sitting on the fence with regard to the total on this game, at various times in different postings within this thread I have mentioned that I may end up playing a small parlay on Pittsburgh the OVER and that is in fact what I have elected to do.

I already had a wager on Pittsburgh -7 but have now elected to place another wager on Pittsburgh -6.5 as well in addition to my prop plays, its been another good year for me in that I finished the regular season collecting on 59.12% of my NFL selections and 58.56% of my College plays...

...so far in this years NFL playoffs I am 7-2 ATS, hopefully I can close out the NFL season with a few more wins, below is a re-cap on my Super Bowl selections.

Good luck to everyone and take care!

Dirtydog

_____________________________________________________________

PITTSBURGH -7 <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1

LACE w:st="on">over Arizona</ST1

LACE> <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O

></O

>
Sunday 02/01/09 6:20 pm est<O

> </O

>
3***Play Selection

PITTSBURGH -6.5 <ST1

LACE w:st="on">over Arizona</ST1

LACE> <O

></O

>
Sunday 02/01/09 6:20 pm est<O

> </O

>
2**Play Selection
______________________________________________________

Parlay
PITTSBURGH -6.5 <ST1

LACE w:st="on">over Arizona</ST1

LACE>
<ST1

LACE w:st="on">Pittsburgh-Arizona.....OVER 46.5</ST1

LACE>
<ST1

LACE w:st="on"></ST1

LACE>2**Play Selection
______________________________________________________

Prop Plays...1/2 unit on each

1.) Pittsburgh team points OVER 27...the Steelers have averaged 28.5 points per game over their last eight outings and in their last three games have averaged 29.7 points per game, on the flip side of things Arizona has allowed 25.68 points per game for the year thus far and in their last six outings have allowed an average of 27.5 points per game.

2.) Total Pass Completions by Pittsburgh OVER 17.5...for the season the Steeler offense has averaged 18.7 completions per game and has averaged 19.6 completions per game in their last five outings, given the fact that Arizona figures to score some points it only makes sense that the Steelers will come out throwing the ball...

...on the flip side of things the Arizona defense has allowed an average of 20.7 pass completions per game and in the Cardinals three playoff games this year they have allowed 23.7 completions per game.

3.) Hines Ward total reception yards OVER 64.5...the total receptions number on this prop opened at 73.5 but has been bet down to its current number of 64.5, mainly because of the uncertain status of Ward's health, by all indications Hines Ward will play and if he plays he will indeed produce.

Keep in mind that Ward is Pittsburgh's main possession reciever and is also QB Roethlisberger's favorite target, a quick check backwards shows that Ward has talled more than 69 recieving yards in four of this last five outings, the only game in this span that he fell short was in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore when he was hurt and forced to leave the game, even so he still had 55 yards in that affair.

Take care and be well my friends

Dirtydog

:wink:

DIRTYDOG1 · Feb 1, 2009

Dirty I have a feeling this game goes under the total, I think had it been played last week it would have been an over but I think the cards sitting around for 2 weeks just gave them 2 much time to think about what they are actually playen for.

I think Im goen with a big teaser pitt and under. good luck and represent the afc north and I hope you post here next year really enjoy reading your points even if I dont agree with all of them

:howdy:
Hello goode05...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, like you I also struggled with regard to the total on this contest which is the very reason that in the end I elected to play the OVER in a parlay as a means of lessening my exposure while still maximizing my profit should the game be high scoring as I expect it to be.

I've never been a big fan of playing teasers, in my humble opinion they are nothing but sucker plays, the reason centers around the fact that in a teaser a player must win TWO bets in order to collect on the wager while the book only has to win ONE bet to defeat the player, good luck today!

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink: