glad i didn't get the game it sounds like....lost -9 today as vannes did win but i tipped montpellier more so probably a total lost for some.
never expected to go perfect in 2009 - although the dream was there..
reading was an easy choice to and i overthought it (again)
as you said - get em tomorrow.
never expected to go perfect in 2009 - although the dream was there..
reading was an easy choice to and i overthought it (again)
as you said - get em tomorrow.
been looking for this site since pezgordo asked about my betting method. I read this after i started capping soccer but it is great advice:
http://www.soccerpunter.com/howtobetsoccer.php
I think people do not consider H2H, motivation or schedule enough when looking at picks. With 10,000 games on the weekend if someone has 50 hours to kill, i am certain a handful of games fit every catergory and a person can clean up. Here are my leans but waiting on team news, and lineups and overnight line movements:
England Premier League
Aston Villa -241 ML - Villa is a true top 5 (Uefa spot) team and against a stuggling west brom this is one of those must win games. There is not enough recent H2h games to factor in but lifetime H2h in Aston Villa 29W 9D 11L. Recent form leans villa's way as well. Past 6(i use 6 games because bet365 stats use 6) 4W 2D and west brom 2W 1D 3L. West Brom 1W 1D 8L on the road - including 7 straight losses. Villa draws a ton at home but should be too much for west brom. I am willing to risk the push here and bet the Aston Villa AH-1 at -153. It being a 'derby' it could be tighter than originally thought but i think villa motivation and skill is too much for brom.
Everton v Hull
Everton -.5 and -1 -124
Past 6 games 6W-2D-2L for everton and Hull 1W-4D-5L. Everton's Home record is poor but recent win against Sunderland and draw to chelsea is promising. There is a draw worry so i might skip this one but hull's recent 5-1 lost to Man City leans me to bet for everton.
Fulham v Blackburn Rovers
Fulham pk and -.5 -117
Fulham at home 6W-3D-1L V 2W-3D-5L. Fulham a draw team for sure but they seem to beat the proper teams at home. Wins against Newcastle, Wigan, Tottenham, Boro and Bolton leads me to believe they can beat blackburn. Blackburn only 1 win in past 8 games.
England - Championship
Blackpool Birmingham City
UNDER 2.5 -135
blackpool 27% under birmingham 35% under.
past 6 games - blackpool 6Gf 5Ga and birmingham 6Gf 6Ga - so both teams average 1-1 games.
Queens Park Rangers Coventry City
QPR -112
QPR Home record 9W 2D 2L , Coventry Away 4W 4D 5L
Queens Park Rangers 2W 3D 1L and Coventry 2W 3D 1L
QPR H2h 13W 5D 6L against Coventry
16:00 Sheffield United Norwich
Sheff Untited -143
Sheff sits 6th and will want to stay in that promotion playoff zone. Norwich 20th and 2W 4L past 6 games. Sheff is a decent home team 7W 4D 2L playing against a poor away team Norwich 2W 2D 9L. H2H doesn't separate the two teams.
England - League Two
Accrington Darlington
Darlington pk -0.5 -102
Darlington a decent road team 4W 4D 3L and Accrington 4W 1D 6L at home. Other than Shewsbury all home wins against weaker opponents than darlington. (and shrewsbury brutal on the road) The problem with darlington is the 3 road losses where against weak opponents. Accrington just one win in last 6 and that was against 22nd (out of 24 Grimsby). Darlington pk is -155 and i might play that instead.
Notts County Exeter
UNDER 2.5 -116
Notts 48% over and exeter 41% over. Notts only 4O and 8U at home, Exeter 3O 7U on the road. Notts past 6 games 2Gf 8Ga and Exeter 9Gf 7Ga. Really looks like a 0-0 0-1 game.
Exeter pk +101
Exeter is actually a great road team - 5W 3D 2L on the road which is the 5th best road record in the league. Notts struggles even at home 2W 5D 5L. A win for exeter could actually see them in the promotion playoff spot. Form is in exeter favour too....good draw chance but if there is a winner i am leaning to exeter so above even money with a money back on draw looks promising.
Shrewsbury Chester
Shrewsbury -166
classic crazy good home team vs poor away team. As mentioned Shrewsbruy is a bad road team but at home 9W 1D 2L which is the best home record in league two. Chester 2W 3D 7L on the road. 1 win against lowly Grismby and a win against Darlington. Shrewsbury's home lost was against leaders Wycombe. The odds being what they are and chester recent form i may end up laying off this one
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as i said these are just my thoughts and feel free to comment on any of the games. I didn't have team to read the team news and will while watching the early villa game. I did bet Villa AH-1 at -152
http://www.soccerpunter.com/howtobetsoccer.php
I think people do not consider H2H, motivation or schedule enough when looking at picks. With 10,000 games on the weekend if someone has 50 hours to kill, i am certain a handful of games fit every catergory and a person can clean up. Here are my leans but waiting on team news, and lineups and overnight line movements:
England Premier League
Aston Villa -241 ML - Villa is a true top 5 (Uefa spot) team and against a stuggling west brom this is one of those must win games. There is not enough recent H2h games to factor in but lifetime H2h in Aston Villa 29W 9D 11L. Recent form leans villa's way as well. Past 6(i use 6 games because bet365 stats use 6) 4W 2D and west brom 2W 1D 3L. West Brom 1W 1D 8L on the road - including 7 straight losses. Villa draws a ton at home but should be too much for west brom. I am willing to risk the push here and bet the Aston Villa AH-1 at -153. It being a 'derby' it could be tighter than originally thought but i think villa motivation and skill is too much for brom.
Everton v Hull
Everton -.5 and -1 -124
Past 6 games 6W-2D-2L for everton and Hull 1W-4D-5L. Everton's Home record is poor but recent win against Sunderland and draw to chelsea is promising. There is a draw worry so i might skip this one but hull's recent 5-1 lost to Man City leans me to bet for everton.
Fulham v Blackburn Rovers
Fulham pk and -.5 -117
Fulham at home 6W-3D-1L V 2W-3D-5L. Fulham a draw team for sure but they seem to beat the proper teams at home. Wins against Newcastle, Wigan, Tottenham, Boro and Bolton leads me to believe they can beat blackburn. Blackburn only 1 win in past 8 games.
England - Championship
Blackpool Birmingham City
UNDER 2.5 -135
blackpool 27% under birmingham 35% under.
past 6 games - blackpool 6Gf 5Ga and birmingham 6Gf 6Ga - so both teams average 1-1 games.
Queens Park Rangers Coventry City
QPR -112
QPR Home record 9W 2D 2L , Coventry Away 4W 4D 5L
Queens Park Rangers 2W 3D 1L and Coventry 2W 3D 1L
QPR H2h 13W 5D 6L against Coventry
16:00 Sheffield United Norwich
Sheff Untited -143
Sheff sits 6th and will want to stay in that promotion playoff zone. Norwich 20th and 2W 4L past 6 games. Sheff is a decent home team 7W 4D 2L playing against a poor away team Norwich 2W 2D 9L. H2H doesn't separate the two teams.
England - League Two
Accrington Darlington
Darlington pk -0.5 -102
Darlington a decent road team 4W 4D 3L and Accrington 4W 1D 6L at home. Other than Shewsbury all home wins against weaker opponents than darlington. (and shrewsbury brutal on the road) The problem with darlington is the 3 road losses where against weak opponents. Accrington just one win in last 6 and that was against 22nd (out of 24 Grimsby). Darlington pk is -155 and i might play that instead.
Notts County Exeter
UNDER 2.5 -116
Notts 48% over and exeter 41% over. Notts only 4O and 8U at home, Exeter 3O 7U on the road. Notts past 6 games 2Gf 8Ga and Exeter 9Gf 7Ga. Really looks like a 0-0 0-1 game.
Exeter pk +101
Exeter is actually a great road team - 5W 3D 2L on the road which is the 5th best road record in the league. Notts struggles even at home 2W 5D 5L. A win for exeter could actually see them in the promotion playoff spot. Form is in exeter favour too....good draw chance but if there is a winner i am leaning to exeter so above even money with a money back on draw looks promising.
Shrewsbury Chester
Shrewsbury -166
classic crazy good home team vs poor away team. As mentioned Shrewsbruy is a bad road team but at home 9W 1D 2L which is the best home record in league two. Chester 2W 3D 7L on the road. 1 win against lowly Grismby and a win against Darlington. Shrewsbury's home lost was against leaders Wycombe. The odds being what they are and chester recent form i may end up laying off this one
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as i said these are just my thoughts and feel free to comment on any of the games. I didn't have team to read the team news and will while watching the early villa game. I did bet Villa AH-1 at -152
looks like i am pretty good at predicting which games are going to be cancelled. Although quite a lot again today so i think it is luck more than skill :lolBIG:
As for the official plays:
EPL
Everton v Hull
Everton -.5 and -1 -147
Championship
Queens Park Rangers Coventry City
QPR -123
League 2
Notts County Exeter
UNDER 2.5 -122
Exeter pk +101
line movement but team news looks good in all the games too - esp QPR looks strong but they have dissapointed in the past. Took out the Sheffield United play i still like it but seems like a few players missing for sheffield and you never really know how returning players will fare.
I am thinking under in all the games in league one/two might be good plays today but that is solely based on potential pitch problems.
As for the official plays:
EPL
Everton v Hull
Everton -.5 and -1 -147
Championship
Queens Park Rangers Coventry City
QPR -123
League 2
Notts County Exeter
UNDER 2.5 -122
Exeter pk +101
line movement but team news looks good in all the games too - esp QPR looks strong but they have dissapointed in the past. Took out the Sheffield United play i still like it but seems like a few players missing for sheffield and you never really know how returning players will fare.
I am thinking under in all the games in league one/two might be good plays today but that is solely based on potential pitch problems.
brutal 1-3 morning. QPR game was very frustrating - did not watch it- but i figured that red card was going to help us out. Nothing to say about the Exeter game except completley misread the game.
Sorry for the morning - hoping to get some back with one more play today
Stade Rennais v Grenoble
Renne AH-1 +103
maybe a push but i think rennes wins so taking the chance for the better pay off
Sorry for the morning - hoping to get some back with one more play today
Stade Rennais v Grenoble
Renne AH-1 +103
maybe a push but i think rennes wins so taking the chance for the better pay off
i apologize for not having an updated record. Leaving for the night - just to get this drunkards out of my house (damn Leaf Fans). Looked at stats while they screamed at my TV so I hope the plays make sense....
Ranked according to preference but i played them all the same amount.
17:00 Troyes Aube v Chateauroux
Troyes-124 french 2
Troyes 9th 8W 4D 7L Home 6W 1D 3L Key Home wins: Metz 5th and 2nd Bolougne. Chateauroux 18th 5W 5D 8L Away 2W 0D 7L Key Away Losses Brest, Reims and Dijon. Basically, Troyes is beating the top teams in the league and Chateraurox losses to the bottom of the league.
2) Wycombe v Grimsby
Wycmobe ML +1 104 league one - or the -0.5 -1 line.
1st place against 22nd Grismby. H2H at wycombe 4W 2D past 6 - draws recently but against Exeter and Luton (better than their standings) and a road draw against a strong home team Gilligham. Grismby only 1 road win and 7 losses. Grimsby really are in last place in league 2 but because of point deduction for Bournemouth and luton they are 3rd last. Wycombe 7W 5D 0L at home and should win here.
3) FC Dundee v Green Morton
under 2.5 -140 Scotland Div 1
H2h in Dundee 3 unders 1 over. Dundee 21% over and Morton 40% over. 2 overs and 8 unders at home vs 4 over 6 unders for morton on the road. Dundee 6 games 5Gf 2Ga, Morton 6 games 8Gf 5 Ga. In 10 Home games, 8Gf 7Ga for Dundee. Morton only 7Gf 16Ga in 10 away games. Past 9 first division games have all been under 2.5 for Dundee. 8 out of the last 10 Morton 1st division games under. So many signs point to under it kinda scares me.
4) 16:00 Rochdale Lincoln City
Rochdale ML -119 league two
Rochdale 8th place and Lincoln 12th. Rochdale 5th place at home 7W 3D 2L outscoring opponents on the average of 2-1 at home. Lincoln 4W 1D 7L 15th best on the road.
5)Crystal Palace Ipswich
Crystal AH 0 -0.5 -117 Championship League
C Palace on a good form...4W 1D 1L in past 6 games. Ipswich 2W 2D 2L past 6. Palace 7th best at home 7W 4D 2L, Ipswich 12th on the road 4W 4D 5L. Recent FA Cup win against a tough Leicester should provide extra motivation. Crystal's last home lost was to Nottingham Forest 8 league matches ago. Big worry is Crystal hasn't played a top team at home yet so the home record could be misleading. Ipswich lossed on the road include Norwich, Doncaster, and Charlton Athletic. 3 of the losest teams in the league.
6)Lens v Vannes OC
under 2.5 -140 French 2
lens - 4 overs and 6 unders at home. Vannes 3 overs 6 unders on the road. Lens past 6 games 7Gf 9Ga, Vannes 6 games 3 gf 3ga. This could easily be a 1-0 0-0 type game. Pitch might be frozen and either cancelled or not a joy to play in. Says "Freezing Fog" for the game.
All lines at pinnacle -- good luck tomorrow and sorry for the sloppy post - gots to go.
Ranked according to preference but i played them all the same amount.
17:00 Troyes Aube v Chateauroux
Troyes-124 french 2
Troyes 9th 8W 4D 7L Home 6W 1D 3L Key Home wins: Metz 5th and 2nd Bolougne. Chateauroux 18th 5W 5D 8L Away 2W 0D 7L Key Away Losses Brest, Reims and Dijon. Basically, Troyes is beating the top teams in the league and Chateraurox losses to the bottom of the league.
2) Wycombe v Grimsby
Wycmobe ML +1 104 league one - or the -0.5 -1 line.
1st place against 22nd Grismby. H2H at wycombe 4W 2D past 6 - draws recently but against Exeter and Luton (better than their standings) and a road draw against a strong home team Gilligham. Grismby only 1 road win and 7 losses. Grimsby really are in last place in league 2 but because of point deduction for Bournemouth and luton they are 3rd last. Wycombe 7W 5D 0L at home and should win here.
3) FC Dundee v Green Morton
under 2.5 -140 Scotland Div 1
H2h in Dundee 3 unders 1 over. Dundee 21% over and Morton 40% over. 2 overs and 8 unders at home vs 4 over 6 unders for morton on the road. Dundee 6 games 5Gf 2Ga, Morton 6 games 8Gf 5 Ga. In 10 Home games, 8Gf 7Ga for Dundee. Morton only 7Gf 16Ga in 10 away games. Past 9 first division games have all been under 2.5 for Dundee. 8 out of the last 10 Morton 1st division games under. So many signs point to under it kinda scares me.
4) 16:00 Rochdale Lincoln City
Rochdale ML -119 league two
Rochdale 8th place and Lincoln 12th. Rochdale 5th place at home 7W 3D 2L outscoring opponents on the average of 2-1 at home. Lincoln 4W 1D 7L 15th best on the road.
5)Crystal Palace Ipswich
Crystal AH 0 -0.5 -117 Championship League
C Palace on a good form...4W 1D 1L in past 6 games. Ipswich 2W 2D 2L past 6. Palace 7th best at home 7W 4D 2L, Ipswich 12th on the road 4W 4D 5L. Recent FA Cup win against a tough Leicester should provide extra motivation. Crystal's last home lost was to Nottingham Forest 8 league matches ago. Big worry is Crystal hasn't played a top team at home yet so the home record could be misleading. Ipswich lossed on the road include Norwich, Doncaster, and Charlton Athletic. 3 of the losest teams in the league.
6)Lens v Vannes OC
under 2.5 -140 French 2
lens - 4 overs and 6 unders at home. Vannes 3 overs 6 unders on the road. Lens past 6 games 7Gf 9Ga, Vannes 6 games 3 gf 3ga. This could easily be a 1-0 0-0 type game. Pitch might be frozen and either cancelled or not a joy to play in. Says "Freezing Fog" for the game.
All lines at pinnacle -- good luck tomorrow and sorry for the sloppy post - gots to go.
