Derby

[ML Dog]

BTW Judge, thanks for once again putting this all out there - this was not a casual 2 minute post . Good job.

+1, the writeups served me very well on Matchups between horses. Was able to identify Horses to FADE and I LOL'd when I saw the bottom 6 Finishers

15

Danzing Candy

19 3/4

27-1

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16	Trojan Nation	27 1/2	39-1

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17	Oscar Nominated	33 1/4	40-1
18	Majesto	37 1/2	55-1
19	Whitmore	38	30-1
20	Shagaf	DNF	56-1

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Trojan Nation
Definite closer. Likes to come from far off the pace. Got 2nd in The Wood. Almost caught Outwork. Not crazy about the speed figures from that race. Never run at Churchill Downs. Works have been good. Doubt if this one is fast enough to win. Best speed fig was 96. before that ran some 87s.

Oscar Nominated
Tactical speed. Didn't run in a major prep race. Speed figs nothing to get excited about. Had a good showing over this strip. May be in over his head.

Shagaf
Another with only 4 races.Tactical speed. Speed figs going in wrong direction. Faded in the Wood to get 5th. Not convinced he will get the distance. No races at CD. 2 works one of which was impressive.

Majesto
Tactical speed. Finished 2nd in Fla Derby to the favorite. Only ran in Maiden specials before that. Doesn't seem very fast based on speed figs. Never ran at CD. Works so-so. Not sure he will like added distance.

Danzigs CandySpeed to burn. Will need to get out early and go for the lead. PP hurts him. Ran a 104 2 back. No races or works at CD. Faded in SA Derby which not bode well for the added distance. Don't see him around at the end.



Whitmore I didn't Fade but even the Speed Figs of 97 L2 told me enuff to be helpful....
Comes from off the pace. Got 3rd in Ark Derby. Has doubled up with 97 speed figs last 2. Might be ready for a move forward. Has a nice race over the strip, as well as a nice work. Interesting.


So this was a very helpful and productive thread for me and I hope JW will make a thread for other horse races. :toast:

 

[Michelangelo]

I am a horse handicapper. There is more than one way to define "value" in horse racing. Ideally value should be defined by picking the winner in every race. That's the ultimate value. But that, of course, is impossible. Experience tells us that. So value is assessing the betting situation at hand and trying to extract the highest payoff that can be achieved by investing the fewest number of dollars.

Before last year's Triple Crown winner, American Pharoh, won the Derby, there had only been 6 winning favorites in the Derbies in the 36 years that passed since the previous Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, in 1978.

So betting the favorite every year clearly has negative EV.

Those of us who follow horseracing know this.We also know that in those same years there have been triples that have exceeded $100,000.00. So value for us is the possible exceedingly huge Derby payoffs. We try to knock one of those payoffs down. You won't get them if the favorite wins so most of us value chasers will try to beat the favorite on Derby day in pursuit of the disproportionately high exotic payoffs.

PS The bullying some of you guys do of Justin Cruise gets really old. It's childish. And it's not just guys in this thread. Grow up.

 

[ML Dog]

I am a horse handicapper. There is more than one way to define "value" in horse racing. Ideally value should be defined by picking the winner in every race. That's the ultimate value. But that, of course, is impossible. Experience tells us that. So value is assessing the betting situation at hand and trying to extract the highest payoff that can be achieved by investing the fewest number of dollars.

Before last year's Triple Crown winner, American Pharoh, won the Derby, there had only been 6 winning favorites in the Derbies in the 36 years that passed since the previous Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, in 1978.

So betting the favorite every year clearly has negative EV.

Those of us who follow horseracing know this.We also know that in those same years there have been triples that have exceeded $100,000.00. So value for us is the possible exceedingly huge Derby payoffs. We try to knock one of those payoffs down. You won't get them if the favorite wins so most of us value chasers will try to beat the favorite on Derby day in pursuit of the disproportionately high exotic payoffs.

PS The bullying some of you guys do of Justin Cruise gets really old. It's childish. And it's not just guys in this thread. Grow up.

Great Post. As usual from you and Thanks also for the encouragement within The Trump Thread. I'll Reply over there to your post...in time.

For me I find the best Value within these Triple Crown races to be in Matchups between horses.

NYQUIST was a BEAST after the turn for Home. The Horse Rose to the occasion.

Will be interesting to see what EXAGGERATOR is able to bring in the longer Belmont Race.

And how NYQUIST handles that extra distance.

Any and all input on the remaining Triple Crown races is appreciated.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Disagree. Like last year, the tri payout was a ripoff. To begin with, everyone knows that there is a ton of "stupid money" in the Derby parimutuel pools every year which is why some of the past years payouts were silly great. Last 2 years it seems criminal. In a 20 horse field, those tri's should have paid double what they did. By comparison, Silver Charms Derby the #2,3*5 favorites were in the tri and that paid $200+ and that was a 13 horse field. THIRTEEN!!! Do the math on that one! I know Nyq was 2-1 fav on top but I will keep bringing up that it was a 20 horse field. If you have the time go back and review the KD card from last year. There was a race on that card where the favs finished 123 and the tri paid better than the Derby tri. Very strange. Your example of the mundane Thursday is fine ..but it is not 20 horse field... more like 8.

I respect what you are saying but I feel you are off base with this one. A lot of the stupid money is betting the derby itself, not all the races before hand so a triple from earlier on the card is not that relevant.

I would like boxcar payouts as well but considering what we got, it was not as bad as you make it seem. Getting $300 on a simple $20 exacta of 2 choices is not that bad a payoff all things considered. It surely was a popular play as the price was a little over $40 about an hour or so before the race.