A bit of both I suppose. NFL GameRewind was a game changer for me. I watch a lot of the games over again just to pick up on strengths weaknesses of teams. Seattle for instance, Wagner seems to make that defense go IMO. He was a major loss. I really like being on a player or team before the Media, so I guess I look for that. This year I was on Bal very early. I love love love Mosley. I think he's a monster that know one knows about for instance...
Then in NFL I think situations matter greatly. NO desperation week and off Bye week, Detroit weird London schedule ahead - notice both teams going to London to play a 930am didn't cover. I played against both of them for that reason. So that was situational.
I love stats. I love advanced metrics. I think the more information the better but you have to have some kind of "eye test"/general knowledge of players and teams. I learn the most from watching as many games as I can.