Hello all...
Don't mind me, I just thought for once I would try something new...Like starting my own thread for a change!
There's been sooooo much talk about the upcoming AFC Championship game that in my humble opinion has resulted in getting everyone off the beaten path with regard to tried and true handicapping axioms.
I've seen alot of people spewing out meaningless stats and trends from the 1970's or 1980's while others are posting systems that include data that dates back to the 1960's.
The fact of the matter is that with the advent of "Free Agency" and in this day and age of the salary cap, virtually all stats, trends and systems that go back past the three or four year mark are quite meaningless in nature, the reason of course is that players now bounce around from team to team all for the sake of the all mighty dollar thus rendering long term stats, trends and systems almost useless.
The advent of Free Agency and the salary cap has produced "Parity" in the good ole NFL which is good for the league in that it promotes the concept that each and every team in the league has a chance to go from the out house to the penthouse from one year to the next and parity is also good for the NFL's fan base who spends millions of dollars on a yearly basis in ticket sales and team merchandise.
Parity in the NFL created by free agency and the salary cap has also made it tougher to handicap games on a general basis because each team now lacks depth at the skill positions which means that a handicapper must have a better handle on each teams injury situation and how it relates to their upcoming game in terms of match up problems.
In my humble opinion most run of the mill handicappers today either do not understand team matchups and how to handicap them or they simply ignore team matchups because of the fact that its more time consuming to handicap games with regard to how one team matches up against the other.
I personally have found the best way around the parity issue with regard to having the best handicapping success, is to simply key in on divisional matchups.
The reason of course is that divisional opponents face each other twice yearly and over the course of a three year span will face each other a minimum of six times...meaning that you will have many more head to head matchups to compare and see what adjustments each team made from the first meeting to the second meeting.
Thus, those that claim the results of an earlier same season meeting makes no difference with regard to how one should view the second meeting are really missing the boat in my opinion.
Think about it for a second, if Team A couldn't handle the pass rush of Team B in the first meeing, what would you expect Team A to do in the second meeting?....Probably install a "Max Protect" package right?....which means that Team A will have less recievers going downfield and will probably lead to a lower scoring game than in the first meeting.
Here's another example, if Team A had success throwing the ball deep in the first meeting versus Team B wouldn't you expect Team B to employ more of a zone package in their defensive secondary coupled with a few zone blitzes here and there?....which means that Team A should be able to have a better day running the ball or will be forced to use short screens.
The point I am trying to make is that in this day and age...ITS ALL ABOUT MATCHUPS...those willing to take a little time and research the stats from the first same season meeting and see what Team A did to Team B and visa versa and then project how this will relate to the second meeting will win many more wagers than they will lose over the long haul.
Now with regard to the upcoming Steeler and patriot matchup....
Credit has to be given to the Patriots for winning two of the past three Super Bowls and in my opinion the Patriots are actually fielding a stronger team this year than in either of their Super Bowl years, however, for the most part the Patriots have been able to pull games out by using "Smoke and Mirrors" to mask their weaknesses.
Saying that the Patriots have won more than a few games using "Smoke and Mirrors" is not meant to slight them in any way, actually its a compliment to their coaching staff and what they've been able to achieve with regard to playing backups and moving other players around to mask injury concerns and/or mask weaknesses that may have been exposed by whatever team they were scheduled to face that particular week.
However, Pittsburgh was able to do the very same things this season and the Steelers are now in the Patriots heads due to the beating Pittsburgh dished out earlier this season with their running game, doubt is a powerful thing and I think this is key when the patriots visit Pittsburgh, on the other hand confidence is a good thing and the Steelers are oozing it out from all sides.
New England backers can point to the fact that the Patriots were without RB Corey Dillon when they were beaten in Pittsburgh and that the Patriot defensive secondary was not intact, however, the fact remains that New England was only able to rush for 5 yards against Pittsburgh while the Steelers rushed for 221 yards against New England and no matter how you want to slice it.....that's dominance.
The point is that Pittsburgh beat New England at the point of attack, the Steelers controlled what happened on both sides of the ball with their offensive and defensive line play, meaning that Dillon playing in the rematch won't matter that much because New England was beaten at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The patriots do have a huge edge with Brady under center versus Roethlisberger because of the experience factor but that will be somewhat negated because these teams will meet in Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game, patriot HC Bill Belichick rates higher than Steeler HC Bill Cowher but in the end it always comes down to players and matchups.
Opposing QB's have completed 58.6% of their passes against the patriots ( 11th in the NFL ) while Pittsburgh only allows 55.6% ( 4th in the NFL ), when it comes to rushing defense Pittsburgh is ranked #1 in the NFL allowing 81 yards per game with a per pop average of 3.6, meanwhile, the patriots are ranked 6th and allow 99 yards per game with a per pop average of 3.9.
Pittsburgh is better than new england in virtually every defensive statisical category this season, however, the patriots do out stat the Steelers offensively in terms of total passing and rushing yards 357 to 324 but this is because Pittsburgh is more of a rushing team while the patriots are more of a passing team.
In the end Pittsburgh rates the edge over the patriots because the stats bear out that the Steelers offense should have success against the new england defense while the patriot offense will in all likelyhood struggle against Pittsburghs defense.
My money is on Pittsburgh +3 and I also grabbed Pittsburgh on the Moneyline as well,
take care and good luck!
Deb
.
Don't mind me, I just thought for once I would try something new...Like starting my own thread for a change!
There's been sooooo much talk about the upcoming AFC Championship game that in my humble opinion has resulted in getting everyone off the beaten path with regard to tried and true handicapping axioms.
I've seen alot of people spewing out meaningless stats and trends from the 1970's or 1980's while others are posting systems that include data that dates back to the 1960's.
The fact of the matter is that with the advent of "Free Agency" and in this day and age of the salary cap, virtually all stats, trends and systems that go back past the three or four year mark are quite meaningless in nature, the reason of course is that players now bounce around from team to team all for the sake of the all mighty dollar thus rendering long term stats, trends and systems almost useless.
The advent of Free Agency and the salary cap has produced "Parity" in the good ole NFL which is good for the league in that it promotes the concept that each and every team in the league has a chance to go from the out house to the penthouse from one year to the next and parity is also good for the NFL's fan base who spends millions of dollars on a yearly basis in ticket sales and team merchandise.
Parity in the NFL created by free agency and the salary cap has also made it tougher to handicap games on a general basis because each team now lacks depth at the skill positions which means that a handicapper must have a better handle on each teams injury situation and how it relates to their upcoming game in terms of match up problems.
In my humble opinion most run of the mill handicappers today either do not understand team matchups and how to handicap them or they simply ignore team matchups because of the fact that its more time consuming to handicap games with regard to how one team matches up against the other.
I personally have found the best way around the parity issue with regard to having the best handicapping success, is to simply key in on divisional matchups.
The reason of course is that divisional opponents face each other twice yearly and over the course of a three year span will face each other a minimum of six times...meaning that you will have many more head to head matchups to compare and see what adjustments each team made from the first meeting to the second meeting.
Thus, those that claim the results of an earlier same season meeting makes no difference with regard to how one should view the second meeting are really missing the boat in my opinion.
Think about it for a second, if Team A couldn't handle the pass rush of Team B in the first meeing, what would you expect Team A to do in the second meeting?....Probably install a "Max Protect" package right?....which means that Team A will have less recievers going downfield and will probably lead to a lower scoring game than in the first meeting.
Here's another example, if Team A had success throwing the ball deep in the first meeting versus Team B wouldn't you expect Team B to employ more of a zone package in their defensive secondary coupled with a few zone blitzes here and there?....which means that Team A should be able to have a better day running the ball or will be forced to use short screens.
The point I am trying to make is that in this day and age...ITS ALL ABOUT MATCHUPS...those willing to take a little time and research the stats from the first same season meeting and see what Team A did to Team B and visa versa and then project how this will relate to the second meeting will win many more wagers than they will lose over the long haul.
Now with regard to the upcoming Steeler and patriot matchup....
Credit has to be given to the Patriots for winning two of the past three Super Bowls and in my opinion the Patriots are actually fielding a stronger team this year than in either of their Super Bowl years, however, for the most part the Patriots have been able to pull games out by using "Smoke and Mirrors" to mask their weaknesses.
Saying that the Patriots have won more than a few games using "Smoke and Mirrors" is not meant to slight them in any way, actually its a compliment to their coaching staff and what they've been able to achieve with regard to playing backups and moving other players around to mask injury concerns and/or mask weaknesses that may have been exposed by whatever team they were scheduled to face that particular week.
However, Pittsburgh was able to do the very same things this season and the Steelers are now in the Patriots heads due to the beating Pittsburgh dished out earlier this season with their running game, doubt is a powerful thing and I think this is key when the patriots visit Pittsburgh, on the other hand confidence is a good thing and the Steelers are oozing it out from all sides.
New England backers can point to the fact that the Patriots were without RB Corey Dillon when they were beaten in Pittsburgh and that the Patriot defensive secondary was not intact, however, the fact remains that New England was only able to rush for 5 yards against Pittsburgh while the Steelers rushed for 221 yards against New England and no matter how you want to slice it.....that's dominance.
The point is that Pittsburgh beat New England at the point of attack, the Steelers controlled what happened on both sides of the ball with their offensive and defensive line play, meaning that Dillon playing in the rematch won't matter that much because New England was beaten at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The patriots do have a huge edge with Brady under center versus Roethlisberger because of the experience factor but that will be somewhat negated because these teams will meet in Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game, patriot HC Bill Belichick rates higher than Steeler HC Bill Cowher but in the end it always comes down to players and matchups.
Opposing QB's have completed 58.6% of their passes against the patriots ( 11th in the NFL ) while Pittsburgh only allows 55.6% ( 4th in the NFL ), when it comes to rushing defense Pittsburgh is ranked #1 in the NFL allowing 81 yards per game with a per pop average of 3.6, meanwhile, the patriots are ranked 6th and allow 99 yards per game with a per pop average of 3.9.
Pittsburgh is better than new england in virtually every defensive statisical category this season, however, the patriots do out stat the Steelers offensively in terms of total passing and rushing yards 357 to 324 but this is because Pittsburgh is more of a rushing team while the patriots are more of a passing team.
In the end Pittsburgh rates the edge over the patriots because the stats bear out that the Steelers offense should have success against the new england defense while the patriot offense will in all likelyhood struggle against Pittsburghs defense.
My money is on Pittsburgh +3 and I also grabbed Pittsburgh on the Moneyline as well,
take care and good luck!
Deb
.
Even if you made it up, I like it! I'll work it into my next conversation in an attempt to sound more intelligent than I am.
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