Debate Still Swirling Over Fantasy Sports Being Gambling Or A Game Of Skill

[PatsFan1283]

I've never played DFS, so I'm not sure how it all works. But I always thought it was set up like a parlay, where you have to win multiple events, which requires a lot of luck like hitting a jackpot. Is DFS even fluid? or doesn't everyone just pick teams?

It is not fluid, it is static.

There are various game formats though. There are the big tournaments but you can also play heads up, 3 mans, 5 mans, 50/50s (this is a field of like 110 people, top 50 get paid for example)

Everyone gets the same player pool to choose from and you assemble your team based on 50 or 60k of salary. So say it is a Wednesday in the NBA, there are 9 games, you choose your roster from all 9 games.

 

[HarryCaray]

Yes, you could say a higher level of skill would be required to beat sports betting than DFS because it is a more efficient market. However, the majority of people who don't win are protected by that market for a lack of a better term. Most results are going to fall within a 48-52% range over a large sample.

Harder to win, also harder to lose. DFS has more inefficiencies to exploit.

Excellent point

 

[FairWarning]

a little skill, a lot of luck

(match-ups and schedule and timing are more important than roster, unless you're a total fuck up )

Isn't poker the same?

 

[WorldNumberOne]

There are people that have a lot of skill making a lot of money playing DFS.. They aren't simply guessing who to use each day.

 

[Willie99]

How can you say a little skill and a lot of luck when there are several players making a living wagering on Fantasy Sports.

I don't know how or why somebody is winning, but I'll respond this way

1) chances are somebody is going to be a big winner, have a nice run, so when somebody has that run it doesn't mean it was skillful (I need a lot more data)

2) gamblers in every walk of life win amazing amounts of money and they look brilliant, before they go on equally bad runs (poker players are a great example)

so I'm not convinced it's about skill, not just yet anyhow

 

[Willie99]

Isn't poker the same?

I think poker is more skillful, but still with an element of luck (and I'm not a poker player)

I suck at poker, but I'm a great setback player. I'm aggressive by nature, that skill set works in setback but poker requires a lot of patience

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't know how or why somebody is winning, but I'll respond this way

1) chances are somebody is going to be a big winner, have a nice run, so when somebody has that run it doesn't mean it was skillful (I need a lot more data)

2) gamblers in every walk of life win amazing amounts of money and they look brilliant, before they go on equally bad runs (poker players are a great example)

so I'm not convinced it's about skill, not just yet anyhow

Those things can be true and it can still be still be skillful obviously. That is just variance/volatility associated with risk (a lot of people luckbox big tournaments but don't really have a long-term edge in both DFS and poker) A meaningful edge can still be attained though.

Poker is more skillful though, yes. It should be legal if DFS is but like I said DFS got the better lobby/clout behind em

 

[Akillies]

An efficient market, by definition , will require more skill to beat.

Poker and dfs are more dependent on short term success [luck] to win large amounts. moneymaker winning wsop, or Kirk Nieuwenhuis entered day with a .106 average, worst by a player at time of his 3 HR game in Modern Era, min. 50 AB for example.

 

[PatsFan1283]

An efficient market, by definition , will require more skill to beat.

Poker and dfs are more dependent on short term success [luck] to win large amounts. moneymaker

By the same token, sports betting is easier to win at without skill than the other 2 because it is an efficient market. When you're betting into an efficient market anyone can hit close to 50% over a large sample and their chance to do better in the short-term is far better than a subpar DFS/poker player.

 

[HarryCaray]

By the same token, sports betting is easier to win at without skill than the other 2 because it is an efficient market. When you're betting into an efficient market anyone can hit close to 50% over a large sample and their chance to do better in the short-term is far better than a subpar DFS/poker player.

I completely agree with your point but I don't get what argument it supports. What side of this are you arguing?

 

[PatsFan1283]

I completely agree with your point but I don't get what argument it supports. What side of this are you arguing?

I was responding to saying poker/DFS are more dependent on short-term luck. Much easier for a bad sports bettor to run good short-term than the other 2 because again, the bad/avg sports bettors win-rate is going to be much higher overall than the other 2. This is actually what makes being a bookmaker pretty damn awesome, slow bleed and people can talk themselves into they're good at it....

Although we gotta compare those apples to apples obviously. Sports betting doesn't have "tournaments" so you can't really hit big scores besides like parlays, whereas someone could luckbox a GPP. Just in terms of the math of similar game types though is what I was referring to.

 

[JakeT.]

It's 100% skill. So is sports betting. So is poker. Roulette is not. Not sure where the debate on this is coming from. Some nights the stars align and some nights they don't. Some will say that portion is "luck". I'll say it's just skillful players putting themselves in a positive position over and over until everything lines up. Call it what you will.

 

[JakeT.]

I've won about 50 times my average bet at FanDuel over the last 4 days. Some days I do shitty but overall I feel the market is very beatable if you know what you're doing.

 

[BostonBettor]

So my understanding is the whole skill vs luck debate exists because the "powers that be" have defined sports betting as luck, and fantasy as more of a skill. Imo, fantasy, sports betting, and poker all require skill to win over the long term. They should all be legal. I think that fantasy sports was originally given the green light because at the time, fantasy sports was all about season long leagues. Dfs was either in its infancy or didn't exist when fantasy sports was deemed legal. I have to wonder if the government and/or leagues are perhaps just becoming aware of what dfs is all about, however, the two daily fantasy sites have gotten corporate as well as league and team backing. I can't imagine that someone won't raise a challenge to the legality of this industry - but good "luck" shutting it down now.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

the daily fantasy sites are here to stay. one of the reasons the govt won't shut it down is because you get 1099'd from the sites.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I never understood the skill vs luck thing.
It never made sense.

Who gives a fuck if it's skill?
Who gives a fuck if it's luck?

It really should not matter what It is one way or the other.

Why should something have to be labeled skill in order to be legal?

Never really understood why people feel like they have to go through so my trouble to say sports betting is skill or poker is skill or yada yada.


Why should it matter one way or the other?

Bottom line is all this stuff should be legal regardless of how skillful or lucky said practice is .


Its some of the dumbest shit ever.

Some of the hoops people have to jump through in order to call something legal.


Like building boats with docks welded to land just people can say they don't have a land based casino.


How dumb can you get?

 

[FairWarning]

A little skill, alot of (andrew) LUCK.

Really, who can predict what no name tight end will catch 3 touchdowns in week 8. Or what fg kicker will kick 6 40 yard fg's. There are guys though that will bet 25K in a 1 on 1 match-up. I can win just an average season long league but some of those guys on those fantasy sites are amazing.

If you look at the match ups as fading weaknesses instead of playing on strengths, it is much easier to spot value.

 

[FairWarning]

I never understood the skill vs luck thing.
It never made sense.

Who gives a fuck if it's skill?
Who gives a fuck if it's luck?

It really should not matter what It is one way or the other.

Why should something have to be labeled skill in order to be legal?

Never really understood why people feel like they have to go through so my trouble to say sports betting is skill or poker is skill or yada yada.


Why should it matter one way or the other?

Bottom line is all this stuff should be legal regardless of how skillful or lucky said practice is .


Its some of the dumbest shit ever.

Some of the hoops people have to jump through in order to call something legal.


Like building boats with docks welded to land just people can say they don't have a land based casino.


How dumb can you get?

Most casino games are luck, basically like carnival games. Slots and roulette come to mind. A lot of poker is dumb luck also. Why do you think the casinos dislike the sportsbook? Luck isn't nearly the factor that the other games are. There is some luck in sports betting/DFL, but you mainly make your luck with research.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Most casino games are luck, basically like carnival games. Slots and roulette come to mind. A lot of poker is dumb luck also. Why do you think the casinos dislike the sportsbook? Luck isn't nearly the factor that the other games are. There is some luck in sports betting/DFL, but you mainly make your luck with research.

My point is it should not matter one way or the other if it's luck or skill.

It should be a completely meaningless reason for the legality of any of this stuff.

Why do people think they have to apply the skill label on something in order to justify its legality?

 

[barnstorm]

My point is it should not matter one way or the other if it's luck or skill.

It should be a completely meaningless reason for the legality of any of this stuff.

Why do people think they have to apply the skill label on something in order to justify its legality?

I agree. Why should a game of skill be legal and a game of luck illegal? A game of luck levels the playing field for all. A game of skill sets up the condition for the average Joe to get fleeced! Why is that preferable?!