Dean Has Whopping 32% Lead in New Hampshire.

GrandSlam+ · Dec 8, 2003

Franklyn Pierce College just released a new poll regarding New Hampshire. Dean is at 39%, Kerry is at 14%, with Clark and Edwards tied at 5%. The poll asked 420 Dems and 180 Independant voters who they chose...the interesting part of the poll shows that Clark was only getting 4% of the independant vote compared to 43% for Dean.

Clark's appeal should be to the moderate, independent part of the electorate (that's how McCain won in 2000). But if this poll is accurate, he isn't getting these votes in New Hampshire. Without that, he's toast.

D2bets · Dec 8, 2003

Haven't seen or heard of that poll but the two released last week (ARG and Zogby) had Clark at 11% and 9% respectively, a point or two behind Kerry, with Edwards nowhere in the picture. I'm not buying the 5% figure at all. Barring a metaphysical collapse Dean is going to win NH by a wide margin, no question about it. The race there is for 2nd. Clark can win that. Clark is strong in SC, OKla, AZ, Delaware, New Mexico, Michigan, Tenn to name a few.

Oren1 · Dec 8, 2003

I fit comes down to Dean and Clark and Clark wins it would be a shame, since Clark is more of a Republican IMO. That could win him some votes since he might have the better chance of beating Bush, but any pure democrat is going to see right through the facade. Someone convince me not to bang the Dean prop, I see no reason not to. You can even parlay it at Bet365

Oren1 · Dec 8, 2003

damnit it's off the boards

you guys hammer it?

Oren1 · Dec 8, 2003

I just talked to bet365's coustomer service about the prop and they said something about rumors cinvolving Hilary Clinton

for their reason for taking the prop down, and that it would possibly be put back up after a week or so. I don't know, think they were feeding me a line of b.s.

ChuckSims · Dec 8, 2003

There is no way Hillary is going to enter the race. She was on "Meet the Press" and she said, "no way" and "the door is closed shut" for any possible run in 2004. She also said she would turn down the nomination if offered. A new poll in Iowa has Dean 28% to Gephardt's 21%.

Oren1 · Dec 8, 2003

so I ended up getting it at -154 at Pinny.

bulldog77 · Dec 8, 2003

Al Gore just endorsed Dean, today. Does this help Dean significantly?

Oren1 · Dec 8, 2003

just adds fuel to the fire. I don't knwo how significant it is.

ChuckSims · Dec 8, 2003

Pinnacle now has Dean at -176...earlier in the day it was -134.

vinividivinci · Dec 8, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
There is no way Hillary is going to enter the race. She was on "Meet the Press" and she said, "no way" and "the door is closed shut" for any possible run in 2004. She also said she would turn down the nomination if offered. A new poll in Iowa has Dean 28% to Gephardt's 21%.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Chuck

Absolutely right! If Hillary says no way, you know it is no way! After all, nobody in that family would ever tell a lie.

VVV

vinividivinci · Dec 8, 2003

By the way, who was the last person to turn down the nomination from either party?
Seriously doubt it has ever happened. Lots have turned it down when they were'nt going to get it anyway!!

VVV

D2bets · Dec 8, 2003

Chuck, national poll released today by Pew hs Dean and Clark both at 15%. Like I said, that hasn't changed. Clark is still just as popular nationwide as Dean. The problem is that the nomination is not determined by the entire nation. It's determined by Ioaw and NH maybe a few states after that. Dean has been pounding Iowa and NH for over a year, has built up a massive organization and has generally had much more time to do what is needed. Clark was late to the game and so far he hasn't made up for it. It has nothing to do with Clark no being appealing. It's just hard to catch up in Iowa and NH when people are pressed to commit early in those crucial states.

As for Gore, this is a guy who blew a campaign he should have won easily. Not so sure I'd even want to be associated with him. Much rather have Clinton's endorsement though he's hinted that he won't nake one. I think Gore's decision may be a little shot at Clinton who has been cool to Dean. Maybe Clinton could "retaliate" and endorse Clark, come on Bill, do it!

Lieberman should be offended though. He even waited for Gore to defer to him if he wanted to run. And now he shuns him. I believe that's what is called a DIS.

ChuckSims · Dec 8, 2003

D2bets, What is "pew"? CNN/USA Today in a nation poll released today has Dean widening his lead to 28%-17% over Clark. At WSEX, Dean is now up to $68! As reported earlier, Dean odds at Pinnacle are rising sharply.

WildBill · Dec 8, 2003

The mistake people make is to assume that the Clinton administration counts for much. His "core" voters were mostly indifferent to politics for the most part, they weren't Dean types who donated a lot of money or support until the realized the guy was out in front. At that point they all said we want someone that can win and with a bad economy the White House was handed to him. For these pundits to imply people like Gore or an other ex-Clintonites matter a lot are fooling themselves. I do believe that Clark could get that kind of last minute support from the moderates because Bush turns many of these people off, but he needs to get out in front, way out in front, before he can get the momentum he needs. I don't see it happening now or in 4 months.

bulldog77 · Dec 9, 2003

Dean now -225 at Pinnacle. Huge jump in last 24 hours since Gore's endorsement. Wagerers'
perception(like conventional wisdom) can often be way off base, but I didn't expect a jump likethat! All this before one vote has been cast.
Maybe value now against Dean. A lot can happen between now and DEM Convention.

ChuckSims · Dec 11, 2003

Dean now -250 at Pinnacle to get the nomination.

D2bets · Dec 16, 2003

New polls from Survey USA show Clark leading Dean 34-21 in Oklahoma and in a statistical tie 1 pt back in SC and 2 pts back in AZ. These are the 3 major Super Tuesday primaries. Methinks too much focus has been placed on Iowa and NH as if those states have always picked the winner. Dean is going to beat Gephardt pretty good in Iowa, all but knocking Gep out. Dean will win NH easily as expected but Clark grabs the headlines by unexpectedly finishing 2nd, prompting the media to begin to see it as a 2-man race. Clark wins at least 2 of the 3 of SC, AZ, Okla (I think SC and OK) on Feb 3. And on Feb 4 it's basically a two-man race and Clark has momentum.

I urge you...do not bet on Dean thinking it's easy money. I'm tellin' ya, Clark takes this thing. Hmmm...what's Clark going for at Tradesports anyway?

jimbutorac · Dec 16, 2003

D2,

Thanks for the heads up. We need a politics handicapping forum. I'll watch your predictions closely.

D2bets · Jan 14, 2004

That NH lead isn't so whopping anymore, it's single digits now. Dean has plummeted over 20 points in the NH polls with Clark more than doubling his support.

And was that Chuck was saying about Clark's national appeal slipping and not being ab;e to reverse the trend. Two separate polls have Clark within the margin of error of Dean.

Today ARG notes that "if the trend continues, and even if Dean holds his core support, Clark could tie and move in front of Dean in NH before the results from Iowa are known.