Someone from this forum tracked the -300+ games last year +/or the year before. If I remember correctly, the dogs in this situation were quite profitable. I think that one year the dogs actually won the majority of these games.
Some of you might remember the Chef, who posted winners here consistently before going tout. He actually was a chef, not a capper, but knew some very sharp people. Probably still ships lobsters around the country.
Anyway, the rule of thumb from not only these sharps, but mathematicians who have crunched the #s for MLB say never lay over -145.
Also, I wrote a post some years ago about my comeback theory, based on a tip from an old-timer who claimed that it won 2/3 of the time. When a team comes back to win in the bottom of the 9th, play them the next game.
Over the years, I have expanded that (for myself) to include the 7th and 8th innings. Sometimes even earlier in certain circumstances. I do not have exact #s, but when I have tracked this system, it has done quite well, especially for emotional, young or poor teams.
Well, the Reds tied in the 6th and scored what would be the winning run in the 7th last night. I do not believe that any system or trend is the end all, be all, but I do give it some weight as an important factor when capping, especially with the today's bullpens. I have seen this work with poor pitching matchups and other unlikely circumstances. It reinforces a teams belief in itself.
Big Z might bonce back from his recent gas can form, but you never know what is up in these cases.
Reds +325
Reds +1.5 +165
Maybe even +2.5 -115
In the immortal words of Cheech & Chong:
Take the Reds, man!
Some of you might remember the Chef, who posted winners here consistently before going tout. He actually was a chef, not a capper, but knew some very sharp people. Probably still ships lobsters around the country.
Anyway, the rule of thumb from not only these sharps, but mathematicians who have crunched the #s for MLB say never lay over -145.
Also, I wrote a post some years ago about my comeback theory, based on a tip from an old-timer who claimed that it won 2/3 of the time. When a team comes back to win in the bottom of the 9th, play them the next game.
Over the years, I have expanded that (for myself) to include the 7th and 8th innings. Sometimes even earlier in certain circumstances. I do not have exact #s, but when I have tracked this system, it has done quite well, especially for emotional, young or poor teams.
Well, the Reds tied in the 6th and scored what would be the winning run in the 7th last night. I do not believe that any system or trend is the end all, be all, but I do give it some weight as an important factor when capping, especially with the today's bullpens. I have seen this work with poor pitching matchups and other unlikely circumstances. It reinforces a teams belief in itself.
Big Z might bonce back from his recent gas can form, but you never know what is up in these cases.
Reds +325
Reds +1.5 +165
Maybe even +2.5 -115
In the immortal words of Cheech & Chong:
Take the Reds, man!
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Hey, May/Walsh were -800...
no really, save those #s, even for parlays for next weeks US Open Tennis. In tennis, the big favs actually win at a high enough pct. to justify those type of odds.
You might win today's game, but you will lose your shirt in the long run. Even though the Reds suck by MLB standards, the are 56-71...44.1%. You do the math!
Thanx Cheungy!
I usually do a search and repost the CBT at the beginning of each season, but I think I either forgot or got busy this year. I also fade the team that blows the game in the next series. bullpen confidence is huge. Note that veteran, even keel teams are not as susceptible to this, just as struggling teams benefit from it.
