Crypto holders

[PatsFan1283]

Is Cryptocurrency Really a Portfolio Diversifier?

Cryptocurrency has a low correlation with traditional asset classes, but correlations often spike during down markets.

www.morningstar.com

Here is the actual article you got that graph from, which basically agrees with me lol

Longer-Term Trends​

As cryptocurrency has moved more into the mainstream, its correlation with other major asset classes has trended up a bit, as shown in the graph below. Bitcoin's correlation with the Morningstar US Market Index has been as low as negative 0.05 for some previous periods but has gradually increased over the past few years. Ether and other major cryptocurrencies have shown similar patterns. This trend looks likely to increase as more institutional investors and individuals add cryptocurrency to their portfolios, though current correlation numbers are still quite low compared with most other major asset classes.

 

[raiders72]

lol, do you?

What do you think the graph is telling you based on how correlations work

That there was no correlation until 2020.

 

[raiders72]

No one talked about the correlation between bitcoin and stocks until 2021.

 

[PatsFan1283]

How do they come to the conclusion there is negative correlation for the year of 2019 when S&P increased 28% and BTC increased almost 85%, both off BTC being down around 50% in 4th Q 2018 and S&P down 20% in the same period

The graph is based on daily/monthly trading swings, but both ended up significantly up in 2019 after 2018 4Q bear markets...If you wanna say that is for entirely different reasons then go ahead, that part is subjective I suppose.

Seriously, explain to me how they come to that conclusion. I am curious. I have a feeling you won't be able to but I am genuinely curious

 

[raiders72]

How do they come to the conclusion there is negative correlation for the year of 2019 when S&P increased 28% and BTC increased almost 85%, both off BTC being down around 50% in 4th Q 2018 and S&P down 20% in the same period

The graph is based on daily/monthly trading swings, but both ended up significantly up in 2019 after 2018 4Q bear markets...If you wanna say that is for entirely different reasons then go ahead, that part is subjective I suppose.

Seriously, explain to me how they come to that conclusion. I am curious. I have a feeling you won't be able to but I am genuinely curious

If stocks go down the next 5 years will bitcoin go down the next 5 years? Or will bitcoin go through it's normal cycle.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Bottom line crypto has a track record since 2009 of going parabolic after a halving then crashing .
Rinse repeat every 4 years .

Yes no question it’s more correlated now due to retail investors but until crypto does not do exactly what it’s done since 2009 every 4 year cycle I’m gonna go with 2024 will bring us brand new fresh ATHs of at least 3x

What the broader market does will be the deciding factor if it’s 2x or 3x or 4x etc…

If the market is in a bull market crypto will go up even more .
If the market is in a bear market crypto will still do its thing in 2024 just not quite as profound .

 

[PatsFan1283]

If stocks go down the next 5 years will bitcoin go down the next 5 years?

Can you explain to me why bitcoin wasn't correlated with stocks in 2019 when they both went up significantly off rough ends to 2018? Right as the fed made the biggest policy change of that decade? You tell me I don't understand these things, so explain away.

Answer depends on a lot of factors that I don't know the answer to, there are just too many variables to give a definitive answer to something like that but generally speaking if there is a prolonged market downturn then I think that will be bad for crypto as well

 

[PatsFan1283]

Bottom line crypto has a track record since 2009 of going parabolic after a halving then crashing .
Rinse repeat every 4 years .

Yes no question it’s more correlated now due to retail investors but until crypto does not do exactly what it’s done since 2009 every 4 year cycle I’m gonna go with 2024 will bring us brand new fresh ATHs of at least 3x

What the broader market does will be the deciding factor if it’s 2x or 3x or 4x etc…

If the market is in a bull market crypto will go up even more .
If the market is in a bear market crypto will still do its thing in 2024 just not quite as profound .

The halving is in 22 months, why would BTC be down 35% last 2 months if this is in 22 months and such a significant event? Any idiot with a few dollars (of which there are many, would be piling in now to take advantage of a 2-3-4x bagger in 22 months)

If the event is in 22 months, you think it just goes up then? No, it gets frontrun obviously.

 

[raiders72]

Bottom line crypto has a track record since 2009 of going parabolic after a halving then crashing .
Rinse repeat every 4 years .

Yes no question it’s more correlated now due to retail investors but until crypto does not do exactly what it’s done since 2009 every 4 year cycle I’m gonna go with 2024 will bring us brand new fresh ATHs of at least 3x

What the broader market does will be the deciding factor if it’s 2x or 3x or 4x etc…

If the market is in a bull market crypto will go up even more .
If the market is in a bear market crypto will still do its thing in 2024 just not quite as profound .

That's a good post since I didn't think about the affect that a broader market would have on an ATH.

 

[PatsFan1283]

That's a good post since I didn't think about the affect that a broader market would have on an ATH.

So you're saying overall market moves will impact BTC price? Lol

After all that, you basically agree with me

I never said halving couldn't be a tailwind, but there are other tailwinds (the overall market) that you were ignoring. Now you seem to have flip flopped on that.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Can you explain to me why bitcoin wasn't correlated with stocks in 2019 when they both went up significantly off rough ends to 2018? Right as the fed made the biggest policy change of that decade? You tell me I don't understand these things, so explain away.

Answer depends on a lot of factors that I don't know the answer to, there are just too many variables to give a definitive answer to something like that but generally speaking if there is a prolonged market downturn then I think that will be bad for crypto as well

?

Explain away

What are the methodologies/inputs that come to this conclusion

 

[raiders72]

So you're saying overall market moves will impact BTC price? Lol

After all that, you basically agree with me

No. I'm agreeing with Choptalk. I don't agree with you because negative or insignificant correlations will occur if stocks are crumbling. The only thing that I'm unsure of is when we hit that ATH. It could be before the halving as a way of pricing it in.

 

[raiders72]

We can also have some increases that don't reach ATHs in the next year. It really depends on current news.

 

[PatsFan1283]

You aren't going to take a stab at why the 2019 graph was negative yet both went up off the 2018 bear markets?

How did morning star come to that conclusion?

 

[raiders72]

You aren't going to take a stab at why the 2019 graph was negative yet both went up off the 2018 bear markets?

How did morning star come to that conclusion?

I'll look later. Have to run. Sorry for all the personal attacks. I am protective of my cryptos

 

[CHOPTALK]

The halving is in 22 months, why would BTC be down 35% last 2 months if this is in 22 months and such a significant event? Any idiot with a few dollars (of which there are many, would be piling in now to take advantage of a 2-3-4x bagger in 22 months)

If the event is in 22 months, you think it just goes up then? No, it gets frontrun obviously.

Well the smart people do exactly that .

The biggest sellers in the crypto market is always the miners. They drive the most sell pressure .
They always have and always will the #1 factor .

2 very important things happen each halving cycle .
The outgoing supply gets cut in half and the price to mine a coin doubles .

Of course the miners don’t want to sell at a loss so when the price doubles they are going to hold on until the bid goes up .

This goes on for 6 to 12 months until it all plays out and the process starts over again .

 

[PatsFan1283]

I'll look later. Have to run. Sorry for all the personal attacks. I am protective of my cryptos

One of those conversations that would've taken 5 minutes to atleast come to some understanding of what the other person was saying but online gets very convoluted

I own BTC/bet with BTC but just saying all these assets running off the fed to some degree now and why correlation has increased...If that is a blip on the radar then so be it

 

[PatsFan1283]

Well the smart people do exactly that .

The biggest sellers in the crypto market is always the miners. They drive the most sell pressure .
They always have and always will the #1 factor .

2 very important things happen each halving cycle .
The outgoing supply gets cut in half and the price to mine a coin doubles .

Of course the miners don’t want to sell at a loss so when the price doubles they are going to hold on until the bid goes up .

This goes on for 6 to 12 months until it all plays out and the process starts over again .

Yeah, I get that. Question was kinda devils advocate

It is an incredible headwind given fixed supply/mining halving, I get all that.

But I have a feeling if in March 2024 the S&P 500 is at 2600 then BTC isn't going to be at 30 where it is today. It is going to be lower.

That is to say, it isn't the only headwind.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Yikes I hope we never see 2600

 

[Seymour]

My buddy put 250K in BTC and Ethereum years ago - ran it to 4 mil and sold - when I told him some of the most elite financial minds truly believe crypto is worthless he replies - well if its worthless y do I have 4 mil in my bank account - then his oh so smart ass starts with his little kiddie crypto forum shit about - mooning, lambo money, diamond hands, wife changing money, etc. - after taxes he has about 3. something mil - puts it all on some coin called Celsius associated with some online Israeli bank - he's down to under 500K - he's long stride is gone - his big peacock feathers disappeared - it's all gambling from what ive seen