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Crypto holders
- Thread starter Mr_Mark
- Start date
I'm saying long term bitcoin is going to follow the same pattern as it has from day 1. Short term movements are on current news. If bitcoin and stocks are moving in the same direction, they may lock up.So if SPY goes up 10% next month, you don’t think Bitcoin is more likely to go up and if it goes down 10% not more likely to go down?
This is what you are saying to be clear?
During the next bitcoin run, it really doesn't matter what stocks do. There is one caveat. We don't quite no yet how much institutions are going to effect the bitcoin market. Institutions still make money since most just DCA in for billions and it's almost impossible to lose. Some made a huge blunder on when they jumped in though. It was clearly evident to everyone in bitcoin for years that there would be a crash. Institutions ignored the cycle. In the long run it really doesn't matter since they'll make it back in time.Ok, well I can’t predict price perfectly but I’ll give you a ballpark estimate
if tech stocks are up 1 year from now then crypto is more likely to be up, if they’re down then vice versa
And if spy is down 30-40% in a year then I don’t think btc will be up, likely down a ton as well
Miners move the market more than anyone else. It also depends if they dump bitcoin OTC or on exchanges. On-chain bitcoin analysis is what you want to see. Is money moving on or off exchanges. Look at bitcoin whale wallets. There is a ton more to look into outside of watching the US markets when predicting bitcoin prices.
No one said there isn't...No move is going to correlate perfectly 100%, but obviously a big part of crypto rise is because of all the $ printing of the last 10 years. Especially the last 2. It is a risk on asset, risk on assets largely trade in tandem.
If there is a real withdrawing of liquidity over a time horizon, I don't see BTC decoupling from that.
4th quarter 2018 market goes down 20%, BTC goes from 6500 to 3500 (wiping out my massive bet on Khabib vs McGregor at nitrogen fwiw)....Then Jan 2019 the fed pivots to rate cuts/ending bond selling, BTC steadily rises throughout the year just as the market does
Then 2020 the virus comes, everything crashes...Market goes down 35% in a month, BTC goes from around 10k to around 5k the same month.....Then they steadily rise in tandem until BTC tops in Oct 2020, the market tops in Nov...Both have had their gyrations but now at 10-15 month lows since.
If anything, as it becomes a mature asset, I think you could make an easy case that it is becoming more correlated.
The evidence for this is pretty overwhelming
If there is a real withdrawing of liquidity over a time horizon, I don't see BTC decoupling from that.
4th quarter 2018 market goes down 20%, BTC goes from 6500 to 3500 (wiping out my massive bet on Khabib vs McGregor at nitrogen fwiw)....Then Jan 2019 the fed pivots to rate cuts/ending bond selling, BTC steadily rises throughout the year just as the market does
Then 2020 the virus comes, everything crashes...Market goes down 35% in a month, BTC goes from around 10k to around 5k the same month.....Then they steadily rise in tandem until BTC tops in Oct 2020, the market tops in Nov...Both have had their gyrations but now at 10-15 month lows since.
If anything, as it becomes a mature asset, I think you could make an easy case that it is becoming more correlated.
The evidence for this is pretty overwhelming
Bitcoin was already going down. The market crash had zero affect. You are data mining. Use this https://glassnode.com/4th quarter 2018 market goes down 20%, BTC goes from 6500 to 3500 (wiping out my massive bet on Khabib vs McGregor at nitrogen fwiw)....Then Jan 2019 the fed pivots to rate cuts/ending bond selling, BTC steadily rises throughout the year just as the market does
