Crypto holders

[Ricboff]

this was my working thesis for the week. again on the WEEKLY chart (the higher time frame).
-6 red candles , not stable. Stale red light very likely need confirmation with the anatomy of the candle on Fri 4 pm (today of course)
- severely oversold. How so? the qqq's havent been this oversold on this time frame since Dec 2018 .
-at a support zone- what MM will often do is purposely break the support, flush the stop losses then take her back up


-the first arm of the W pattern likely has found a bottom. next week ideally i'd liketo see another pin bar on this timeframe . This week's candle carries high probablilty of not seeing a lower low next week (geo-politcal shit notwithstanding )

TA puts probability on your side, the more confluence the better and use of the HIGHER time frames (weekly, monthly) is more valid if you are going agsint the grain and looking for a turn. A good way to lose a lot of money is consistently betting agasint the trend. The trend on the equity market is down .

rational (the bode) for the above call is playing out. I wanted a SECOND pin bar on the weekly as noted above, would have added heavy if that happened, it didnt. I did add the following week midway down the pin bar (front running a downtrending underlying is generally not good for one's health) but stopped after that as the week wasnt playing out as probability would have suggested. Last week's candle was glorious, and strongly suggests continuation. Where r the targets?

on the daily $309 (qqq), this was hit already , scaled some off (last Friday)
on the weekly $320 ish (another 3% ish). IF it hits this , it may pass it BUT then form an inverted pin bar (on the WEEKLY time frame)--this would be a red flag, get atta dodge kinda moment


oh , and a big thanks to Putin for the below ,

Alberta Thrives Amid Oil Rally | OilPrice.com

Alberta’s economy is booming as a result of surging commodity prices and record oil exports to the U.S.

oilprice.com

And 3 HUGE projects set to go 1 in BC , 2 on the east coast in oil/gas. . Provincial/federal approval is in........... A transfer of wealth . Trudeau bailed out by Putin, ya cant make this shit up ...ya cant

 

[Ricboff]

BTC

Bitcoin Price Chart Live - Investing.com

View live Bitcoin price chart and follow real-time Bitcoin price changes.

www.investing.com

click candles, click 1M (monthly) click widescreen

for me, i'll only look at the monthly with this underlying lol, regarding a turn. Its correlation with the qqq changed a bit in May, their respective candles were way way different

its monthly chart , as it enters June (whose candle is just forming of course) shows no evidence of a bottoming process. April long red candle, May long red candle , bit of a tail . June needs to stop the bleeding; an inside candle, green candle, a pin bar-- something positive . Volume was less in May than April, that's a good. So much headwind at $31,000-$35,000; a zone of nothing. The weekly chart, tho, actually is looking good.

jobs data was good today, which the market didtn like, lol ..sets the stage for Powell to not even flinch with rates

 

[raiders72]

BTC price: look at money moved on and off exchanges.
ETH - take things such as Merge and sharding into consideration.
ADA- Vasil fork and Orbis.
All cryptos : Amount owned by devs and investors. Look at lock up schedules. This is very important since dumps can occur.

 

[Ricboff]

volume transacted is shown on any chart platform, no?

'The weekly chart, tho, actually is looking good.' (re ., BTC)

damn it still is. Candle closes today. All bets r off below 28,800ish,

 

[raiders72]

volume transacted is shown on any chart platform, no?

'The weekly chart, tho, actually is looking good.' (re ., BTC)

damn it still is. Candle closes today. All bets r off below 28,800ish,

I'm not sure what you mean by volume not shown. You can get everything that you want off of glassnode and messari.

 

[raiders72]

 

[raiders72]

There are some very smart guys here that use TA. I wouldn't even pretend to know more about the stock market than they do. But when it comes to bitcoin there is so much more to it that TA has to include on-chain analysis. Most people in bitcoin use TA but the information has to include the crypto world. Unless the correlation is very strong with the stock market, there are many variables that must be taken into consideration. Change in laws, miners, where the crypto is held will help determine the price. Then there's the possibility of a hack to a chain, bridge or exchange that throws all else out the window. Even though the hack isn't going to affect the bitcoin blockchain, the hack will change things. There are times when ETH will pull bitcoin because on an update to ETH.

 

[raiders72]

Bill to be presented 6/7. If passed, it looks like it's good for BTC but bad for alts.

​

Quick Take​

• The Block has obtained a draft copy of a crypto regulation bill led by US Senator Cynthia Lummis.
• The draft is the first version of the wide-ranging bill to become public.
• Lummis will formally release her crypto regulatory bill on June 7, her office said when reached.

US Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has spent months teasing details of a comprehensive bill that addresses crypto regulation. The Block has obtained a draft version that offers key details about the scope and impact of the bill.
The 70-page draft focuses on numerous aspects of US crypto regulation. These areas include which activities would fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other federal regulators.
The Block understands that this version of the bill was shared by the Lummis team in the last month. A spokesperson for Lummis said that the draft version is dated March 1.
Extensive sections on stablecoin regulation and digital asset tax policy address many of the key blind spots in crypto regulation today. The bill appears to place significant aspects of the US crypto industry under the auspices of the CFTC. As the text notes:

“Except as otherwise provided by this section, the [CFTC] shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any agreement, contract, or transaction involving a contract of sale of a digital asset that is offered, solicited, traded, executed, or otherwise dealt in interstate commerce.”

Perhaps crucially, the draft bill adds the term “ancillary asset” to the Securities Exchange Act.
Namely, it defines such an asset as:

“An intangible asset that is offered, sold, or otherwise provided to a person in connection with the purchase and sale of a security through an arrangement or scheme that constitutes an investment contract.”

Further, an ancillary asset “may include a digital asset, as defined in section 9801 of title 31, United States Code, that is used to facilitate the governance of a distributed ledger technology network or decentralized autonomous organization.”
In conversation with The Block, sources from the industry had previously expressed concern that the bill would label many cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin as securities.
This is the first full version of the bill to come to light.

 

[raiders72]

Lummis Bill Draft | PDF | U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission | Securities (Finance)

Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site.

www.scribd.com

 

[PatsFan1283]

About that correlation thing.....Blood on the streets all over the place

 

[snoop]

We're 26 months away from the Fed next QE.

Sep 2024 is a long time from here.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Why? They can pivot whenever they want, no?

 

[SheriffJoe]

Storm clouds gathering around the Fed...

Bitcoin Bank Sues the Federal Reserve

Leading Bitcoin bank, Custodia, has sued the Federal Reserve, in what could prove a historic case.

Bitcoin Bank Sues the Federal Reserve

Leading Bitcoin bank, Custodia, has sued the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, in order to force a decision on Custodia's application for a master account. Custodia charges that their application has been “unlawfully” detained for 19 months; in...

www.btctimes.com

 

[snoop]

This bear market could well be mirroring the 2000/2007 crashes, both last about 2 yrs. By the time it's bottom out, it did lots of damages to investors psychology. The NASDAQ took 14 yrs to regain its 2000 high level, S&P recovery was faster. We're 7 months in the current bear market. Biggest risk for the next bull market is how to deal with the Cold War II, until there is some sense of normalcy with Russia, commodity price will remains elevated and the West has to deal with 'stagflation' for years.

Also, the longer the Cold War II, it poses a significant risk to the US dollar status. China/Russia/India/South America is forming a new trading block, there will be less demand for US dollar, subsequently, the Fed will have less room to facilitate liquidity controlling tool, it could spell the 'death of QE'.

 

[Ricboff]

Also, the longer the Cold War II, it poses a significant risk to the US dollar status.

ironically or sadly , the majority of Americans have no idea of this danger. They are just use to being #1, cultural. Dont care how it happens, just that it does

what should be clear to most, but likely isnt, is the Fed is the guy that runs the show. There has been NO fiscal responsibility , its been a 'print USD show'. He pulled the plug, HAD TO . Threatened to do so in late 2018, had to save the market in Jan 2019 . Instead of raising rates in Dec 2021 he 'advised' they at a later date , allowed for the annual Santa Claus rally. The guy's hands r tied, people do see this, no?


with THAT said, if you're living in USA , you either consciously or subconsciously believe its 'going to be okay'. if not, why r u still there?

when u buy a car, do you want to buy it at cost? or 20% off?


for recent retirerees or near term retirees not good. Always a good idea to have a plan B. have a cash reserve, to NOT have to sell in a panic , cash reserve + dividends + selling calls for 5 yrs . Why 5? cause historically it repairs itself within this time frame. Usaully WAY earlier than 5 . Check the data, dont believe me



TA, June MONTHLY candle broke the May low , not good. June candle is not done , getting severely oversold, again on the MONTHLY!!!!!!!. The daily has TWO gap downs, not stable. The VIX has a GAP UP!!! ALL gaps fill on the VIX, all of them, its an oscillator. DONT believe me, check for yourself. That gap will be filled .



(sorry BTC holders, 28,800 ish broke. BTC , like Au, AG, do not pay dividends )

 

[Ricboff]

About that correlation thing.....Blood on the streets all over the place

check out TLT , lol. GL with 'balanced'

yield is getting close to equities

 

[Bozzie]

check out TLT , lol. GL with 'balanced'

yield is getting close to equities

July 20 2020..you could see this coming for the past two years

Bozzie said:
absolutely ..Powell saying the rate will be low is one thing to consider ..given the fact I do think inflation or stagflation is on the horizon keeping rates low is going to be hard fundamentally without the FED providing more liquidity to institutions.
You can fight the FED.TLT trades will get more attractive as the rates near zero. I'm going to stay on the sideline and watch until the FED exhausts itself. Right now they're buying the treasury debt up and down the curve, mortgages, corporate debt (never been done) but I will be standing aside for now reluctantly..I cant figure out what's going to happen but it kept me up in the middle of the night last night.

Happy flipping this week..I won't call this trading.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I think TLT is a pretty good buy at these levels

zirp/qe is never too far away in the big picture grand scheme of things

 

[Ricboff]

well, here's the DECADE montlly

TLT

gotta believe $100 holds , if it gets there . SEVEN red candles ? wtf...MONTHLY candles

 

[snoop]

What is Powell spin game today? The market is pricing in a back to back .75 rate hike for June/July instead of .50/.50. Additional .25 rate hike in Sep/Oct/Nov will bring Fed rate to 3% by Dec so they can take a pause in 2023 and just let QT on pilot mode at the rate of $95B/mo until Sep 2024.