Correlated Parlays - Discussion

fhmesq44 · Aug 28, 2008

Railbird said:
not + ev to discuss.

sadly enough, that may be the sharpest post in this thread.

fhmesq44 · Aug 28, 2008

~Falco~ said:
don't get caught up on the correlation semantics (there is none) simple math tells you that for every 4 bets you'll win 1 and lose 3 thats -$230 every 4 wagers.

This does not apply to Viejodinosaur who is the exeption to the mathematical probabilities that govern the rest of us mortals. Viejo will make us all poor with his 1+1=3 approach. "Viejo prestame cinco dolares"

(Viejo lend me 5 bucks)

:cripwalk:

psst, both halves of SC/NCST were 33%+ and hit. not that two plays is enough to determine success, but it is a nice start to the season.

Doug · Aug 28, 2008

Railbird said:
not + ev to discuss.

No solid book will take them anymore anyways. A dumb local is the only the one that might.

JohnnyB · Aug 28, 2008

fhmesq44 said:
psst, both halves of SC/NCST were 33%+ and hit. not that two plays is enough to determine success, but it is a nice start to the season.

What books take these fhm? :think2:

fhmesq44 · Aug 28, 2008

get my email address from a mod, don't want to post it.

JohnnyB · Aug 28, 2008

fhmesq44 said:
get my email address from a mod, don't want to post it.

Will do.

trytrytry · Aug 28, 2008

fhmesq44 said:
You have mail

I did not get it can you try again? cjr_ is the start

fhmesq44 · Aug 29, 2008

trytrytry said:
I did not get it can you try again? cjr_ is the start

done, coming from my work account and has my username in the subject line

quantumleap · Aug 29, 2008

Doug said:
~Falco~ said:

don't get caught up on the correlation semantics (there is none) simple math tells you that for every 4 bets you'll win 1 and lose 3 thats -$230 every 4 wagers.

This does not apply to Viejodinosaur who is the exeption to the mathematical probabilities that govern the rest of us mortals. Viejo will make us all poor with his 1+1=3 approach. "Viejo prestame cinco dolares"

(Viejo lend me 5 bucks)

:cripwalk:[/quot

with standard $100 bets

total risk is $400, catch one, win $260 + the $100 returned= lose $40. This would be accurate for parlaying unrelated bets, like two different sides, and the picks are 50% type random plays

There is definite correlation with spreads over 30% of the total, and they will win much better than 25% of the time, thus books don't take them, or void them later if you win ( Sportsbook.com).

The plays aren't equally distributed in correlated parlays.

17.5 point spread, and 31.5 total for example.

It would be closer to this :

Dog and under... 35%
Fav and over ... 35%
Dog and over... 20%
Fav and under... 10%

The first two are profitable, you can blindly play both of them on the same game... if the book will take it, AND pay it.

Click to expand...

Thank you Doug for bringing some elaboration of numbers here instead of insults and simple math.

JohnnyB · Aug 29, 2008

fhmesq44 said:
get my email address from a mod, don't want to post it.

Sent this morning.

fhmesq44 · Aug 29, 2008

didn't get it, send to the first 6 letters of my username at gmail

JohnnyB · Aug 29, 2008

fhmesq44 said:
didn't get it, send to the first 6 letters of my username at gmail

Re-sent. d1g1t

Mamon · Aug 29, 2008

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
~Falco~ said:

I will bet you these parlays all day and will make you a poor man....

Click to expand...

VD, bear with me... May have something for us! More info coming tonight by 7pm est.

If you get a chance list the ones that would be in for CFB this week before then. The WK line seems best so I'll try a sample at this place by then.

Mamon · Aug 29, 2008

Sample VD

<TABLE class=WagerTable cellSpacing=2 width="100%" border=0 cellpading="1"><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=6>WagerType: Parlay</TD></TR><TR><TD>Date:</TD><TD>Team:</TD></TR><TR><TD>Aug 30</TD><TD>CFB [193] WESTERN KENTUCKY +20-110 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Aug 30</TD><TD>CFB [194] TOTAL u55½-110 (WESTERN KENTUCKY vrs INDIANA) </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>Risking 10 USD To Win 26 USD</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Could probably get 2dimes or more down

steaktartar · Aug 29, 2008

Mamon said:
Sample VD

<TABLE class=WagerTable cellSpacing=2 width="100%" border=0 cellpading="1"><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=6>WagerType: Parlay</TD></TR><TR><TD>Date:</TD><TD>Team:</TD></TR><TR><TD>Aug 30</TD><TD>CFB [193] WESTERN KENTUCKY +20-110 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Aug 30</TD><TD>CFB [194] TOTAL u55½-110 (WESTERN KENTUCKY vrs INDIANA) </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>Risking 10 USD To Win 26 USD</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Could probably get 2dimes or more down

not a good one the one we would bet would be kan -20 1/2 and ov 30 first half and fla int + 20 1/2 and un 30 first half...this one is for starters.....how much you want?

Mamon · Aug 29, 2008

steak tartar said:
not a good one the one we would bet would be kan -20 1/2 and ov 30 first half and fla int + 20 1/2 and un 30 first half...this one is for starters.....how much you want?

I'm just saying it looks like they are all available but there are no first halfs available for SAT yet so not sure about that.

Mamon · Aug 29, 2008

This is all I got in first halfs probably since its today

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>Aug 29</TD><TD>1145</TD><TD align=left colSpan=2>1H TEMPLE</TD><TD align=right>-4-110<INPUT type=checkbox value=0_196991_-4_-110 name=text_></TD><TD align=right>o20½-115<INPUT type=checkbox value=2_196991_-20.5_-115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left></TD><TD align=left>7:00 PM </TD><TD>1146</TD><TD align=left colSpan=2>1H ARMY</TD><TD align=right>+4-110<INPUT type=checkbox value=1_196991_4_-110 name=text_></TD><TD align=right>u20½-105<INPUT type=checkbox value=3_196991_20.5_-105 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left></TD><TD align=left>Aug 29</TD><TD>1147</TD><TD align=left colSpan=2>1H SMU</TD><TD align=right>+1½-105<INPUT type=checkbox value=0_196993_1.5_-105 name=text_></TD><TD align=right>o35½-105<INPUT type=checkbox value=2_196993_-35.5_-105 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left></TD><TD align=left>8:00 PM </TD><TD>1148</TD><TD align=left colSpan=2>1H RICE</TD><TD align=right>-1½-115<INPUT type=checkbox value=1_196993_-1.5_-115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right>u35½-115<INPUT type=checkbox value=3_196993_35.5_-115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

steaktartar · Aug 29, 2008

Mamon said:
I'm just saying it looks like they are all available but there are no first halfs available for SAT yet so not sure about that.

well if you can find this one pound it...... good luck....game itself is good too

JohnnyB · Aug 29, 2008

steak tartar said:
not a good one the one we would bet would be kan -20 1/2 and ov 30 first half and fla int + 20 1/2 and un 30 first half...this one is for starters.....how much you want?

Side is 36% of total, why would this not be a good bet? :icon_conf

Mamon · Aug 29, 2008

You guys would make the plays yourself on an account we can all see. Nothing else but the correlated plays no side action and I get the credit and settle every week. You guys settle weekly either way. In fact you guys can do it all just add in 200 each play for me. How much and many bucks would we need per play and overall credit per week do you think? I can update the halfs stuff tom.