Coronavirus Stock Market buy off.

[Ricboff]

btw all, this incredible market rebound has not been with great breadth. Literally approx 30% of stocks has done the heavy lifting

sectors on fire:

XLK (teck)
IVW (growth)
XLV (healthcare)
IBB (bio tech)
SKYY (cloud)
HACK ( cyper security )
GDX (gold prodcuers)
SIL (silver producers)

severely underperformed:

XLF (banks)
SOXX (semi conductors)
KIE (insurers,..kaput)
IYT (transports)
XLI (industrials)
XAR (aerospace defense)
VNQ (reits)




usa steel maybe a sector to keep an eye one. I can see trump distancing from china when the dust settles, this is an area that would benefit

 

[Ricboff]

I don't think real estate in the GTA ever falls more than 10-15%. I'm only worried if we have another low in the market.

historically, a severe recession /deprssion does not see a 30% bounce off the lows. No history to support that. Using history as our guide its not likely we see a lower low.

i think u r wrong about RE in the GTA. Condo market is a shit show, lots of amateur landlords in big trouble. Airbnb stuck a fork in many . In addition the extent of the RE damage will, imo , be dependent on cartoon character Ford.

did u read the layoffs by BMO? staggering , commercial real estate gign to take a hit. What % of companies will not re-hire? what % will have employees work from home ?

there might be a new normal on its way, some kinda hybrid.

 

[TheFalls]

btw all, this incredible market rebound has not been with great breadth. Literally approx 30% of stocks has done the heavy lifting

sectors on fire:

XLK (teck)
IVW (growth)
XLV (healthcare)
IBB (bio tech)
SKYY (cloud)
HACK ( cyper security )
GDX (gold prodcuers)
SIL (silver producers)

severely underperformed:

XLF (banks)
SOXX (semi conductors)
KIE (insurers,..kaput)
IYT (transports)
XLI (industrials)
XAR (aerospace defense)
VNQ (reits)




usa steel maybe a sector to keep an eye one. I can see trump distancing from china when the dust settles, this is an area that would benefit

Yep. There are a few steel plays out there. I’m doing that next. Gotta be early before that next stimuli

 

[TheFalls]

historically, a severe recession /deprssion does not see a 30% bounce off the lows. No history to support that. Using history as our guide its not likely we see a lower low.

i think u r wrong about RE in the GTA. Condo market is a shit show, lots of amateur landlords in big trouble. Airbnb stuck a fork in many . In addition the extent of the RE damage will, imo , be dependent on cartoon character Ford.

did u read the layoffs by BMO? staggering , commercial real estate gign to take a hit. What % of companies will not re-hire? what % will have employees work from home ?

there might be a new normal on its way, some kinda hybrid.

I think there’s a decent chance commercial real estate of every type gets bailed out.
A lot of that garbage should be single digits.

I wrote a paper on SRS (etf) back in 2009. That thing bounced and got halved already in the past few weeks.
I’d jump in here if Powell didn’t scare me so much.

 

[PatsFan1283]

The market is pricing in NIRP in 6-12 months? Seems like a huge story.

GG banking/insurance sectors if true, dunno how much leeway Powell has to give that the finger

 

[Ricboff]

over the last 11 trading days the SPY is playing in a box, consolidating (post # 877). It is above its 8 ema wiht no clean sell signall at all

IF the ES would pullback, important levels? (2965 is a breakout level and a dagger for the bears)

2643ish- extremely important level, a level i think would hold and i'd be looking to buy on a proper candle. It's a support level (a previous top of a box) and the .38 fibo level (a retrace from the low) . It would be a 10% pulback from current level. To lose this level would be BAD
2714ish- a break of this 2643 here we come
2778-2965 is sideways action, oscillating, wide wide trading range

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-streaming-chart
(click '1D' on the upper left , that's the daily)



VIX

6 mth daily

pretty important day comign up-- double bottom, or form yet another lower low? we shall see. The SPY is inversely related to the VIX. It's clearly forming lower highs



UUP (USD)

6 mth daily

very clear channel. An extremely important chart. A loss of $26.75 would be bullish for metals adn eem . This inverse relationship is not always 100%. Yesterday's print was a bearish engulfing pattern BUT bounced off its 8 ema and held above, would like to see it lose the 8ema

 

[Ricboff]

08:30 *(US) APR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: -20.5M V -22.00ME - Change in Private Payrolls: -19.52M v -21.86Me - Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -1.33M v -2.5Me - Birth-Death Adjustment (unadj): -553K v +26K prior **Note: Today's Nonfarm payrolls reading of M is the 2nd straight contraction and a record low - Prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised lower from -701K to -870K - Prior Change in Private Payrolls revised lower from -713K to -842K - Prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls revised lower from -18K to -34K


ugly ugly ugly . Record low for nonfarm payrolls, did beat estimates, market seems to like it , reacting positively


'That comes after a decline of 701,000 in March, when an historic 113-month run of employment growth ended. The figures eradicate - if only temporarily - all the jobs created since the end of the Great Recession a decade ago.
The jobless rate jumped to 14.7%, a post war high, from 4.4% last month.
More than 33 million Americans have sought unemployment benefits in the past seven weeks. Restrictions such as stay-at-home orders and social distancing aimed at mitigating the spread of the virus have crippled business activity.
The data will likely add to the enormous pressure on states to reopen, even though the number of new coronavirus cases is still climbing in many parts of the country.'

 

[Ricboff]

one last chart...keep an eye on, there has been ZERO love for the banks, chart is looking interesting for a possible swing low


XLF

6 mth daily, 50 SMA

clearly the 50 sma was rejected yesterday, IT MAY reclaim it and at the same time reclaim her 8 ema- BULLISH. Loses $21? kaput, target would be $20, gap fill ...cool little channel its in

 

[snoop]

Regional banks are holding up quite well - not so much for big banks.

WFC is trading worse than worst group from this pandemic - airline stocks.

S&P is off low by 30%.
WFC is stuck at March low bottom.

It's been brutal.

 

[Ricboff]

Regional banks are holding up quite well - not so much for big banks.

WFC is trading worse than worst group from this pandemic - airline stocks.

S&P is off low by 30%.
WFC is stuck at March low bottom.

It's been brutal.

it likely is going to make a decisive move. There was a MASSIVE fuckin dark pool print late last week, 5 mill shares went off at about $25.60ish


WFC

6 mth daily

vomit materal, but the bulls may have hope . Last friday's candle did not form a lower low, and suggests a swing low ....... She needs to reclaim the 8 ema, would be sweet IF it can gap up AND a green candle

TA aside, i would NOT be on the wrong side of that massive print. So, above $26 is test the waters, a long . BUT stop at $25.10ish (clear short below).

 

[Ricboff]

keep an eye on silver......

SLV

6 mth daily

look at Thursday's volume . MASSIVE. Before Thursday we had indecion trading, tight range, all doji's, just kinda hangin' around. Thursday? GAP up , straight buying, reclaims BOTH the 8 ema and 50 ema, bullish. Contiuation Friday, late day selling. IF she can break that previous April high at about $14.75ish? she's free, a run to likely fill thr gap $15,50. Classic W-bottom (april mid to now).


SLV

2 yr weekly

increased vol last week , bullish engulfing pattern.......the daily and weekly both have probability strongly suggesting continuation. You can see clearly on the weekly how $15.50 will be a HUGE resistance level

 

[Michelangelo]

"it likely is going to make a decisive move. There was a MASSIVE fuckin dark pool print late last week, 5 mill shares went off at about $25.60ish"

Half the time I have no clue what you are talking about. You need to talk in dumb layman's terms for me the dumb layman.

 

[Michelangelo]

Here's the list and why I got them, Ric. I've still got 'em unless otherwise noted.

RCL - Royal Carribean Cruise lines - great Div yield which will likely get suspended near term but should give me a great yield along with great price appreciation in two to three years.

ENERGY

XOM - Exxon Mobil - more great yield in an industry that has stratified itself away from it's core, oil

BP - ditto. Sold at a small loss. Didn't like the way it was performing. (I'll say right now that i'll have little tolerance for bad performers in this market. There is too much opportunity on the upside and too much risk to the downside)

EPD - Another energy play with a good upside and a nice yield

Online pandemic benefactors:

ZM - Zoom - home teleconferencing

TDOC - Teledoc - Online exchange between Doctor and patient

ETSY - Etsy - Online marketplace for small craftsman and dealers (If you need a cool mask try here)

Tech that has seen an increase of usage with the pandemic:

FB - Facebook - You guys know. I'm a holdout.

TWTR - Not sure how they monetize but their popularity is here to stay

Health stocks:

Weight specific (people are home stuffing their faces. They're gonna want to trim up when they have to return to work)

WW - Weight Watchers

TVTY - Nutrisystems

NVO - Novo Nortis - My friend is a bariatrician (weight doctor). She's not a stock picker but she likes this company. Good enough for me.

Other healthcare:

MRNA - Moderna - Local company I heard the President refer to way back at the beginning of his briefings. I sold out Thursday after more than doubling my money when they said they got approval for Stage 2 testing for a COVID 19 vaccine. I sold too early. They went up another 5 points on Friday. But I'm concerned with two things. One, there is no guarantee that they will succeed or that they will get there first. Two, there is a lot of talk that if they get there they will not be able to price profitably. That's the world we live in now. Thank you for the generous profits in a short time.

GILD - Gilead - Remdesivir is theirs. But it's only effective in reducing hospital stays from 13 to 10 days. And they have the same pricing problem. I sold at a small loss last week.

EXAS - Exact Sciences - These guys make and service "Cologuard" treatments. That's a self administered colon test that precedes a colonoscopy which most males above 50 have pretty regularly these days. They pretty much have a monopoly on the market. All colonoscopies across the country have been shut down for weeks now. They are about to get going again.

SDC - Smile Direct - a little dental company. Dentists have been shut down. They should be getting going fairly soon.

And some stocks I've just picked up because I look around and see them busy as hell because people are home looking for things to do:

HD - Home Depot - Where I live all their parking lots have been jammed all day since the shutdowns.

SMG - Scotts Miracle Grow - I figure that a lot of homeowners will be doing veggie gardening and attending to their yards just to get outside and keep busy in a healthy way. The stock seems to be reaffirming those thoughts.

SBUX - Starbucks - I think I got schnookered here. I drive by a Starbucks every day. The place has been jammed with (no lie) about 50 cars waiting in line every day. Cops and cones are there to control the line. But last week it all went away and the line reduced to single digit cars. Maybe there was a huge promo or something. I don't know. Watching this stock. With weakness it's gone.

Think that's about it.

I have my eye on a few more that I'm looking for a pullback to add:

DOCU - Docusign
OKTA - Okta Inc
ZS - Zscaler
MDB - MongodB
SAND - Sandstorm Gold
AYX - Alteryx

Anyone else care to share their portfolio movement recently?

 

[Michelangelo]

It's sure looking like the markets are approving of the re-openings. The futures are up again.

 

[Bruins4Life]

Amzn....80%
Sbux.....15%
DHT......5%

 

[Ricboff]

"it likely is going to make a decisive move. There was a MASSIVE fuckin dark pool print late last week, 5 mill shares went off at about $25.60ish"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_pool

the big players make very large transactions on alternative exchnages . These trades can move the market and initially r blocked from the general public. Legally has to be printed, but can be as late as 24 hrs. Late last week a HUGE print on WFC printed , 5 miilion shares at $25.60ish. Its not a good idea to go agasint this action- so if price is below this level (AND keep in mind the double bottom that may be lost,see chart) then having a long position aint a good idea. And same for the upside, dont want to be short above this level. Large prints are another tool in the tool box

large dark prints were also seen late last week on xlf , and MS. Something may be up with the financials in the short term. Snoop had mentioned WFC so i just wanted to look at the chart


that's quite a stock list MIch, and some incredibly awesome charts. U a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs?


good call bolting on GILD , that chart is nonsensical, could care less what it does, bizarre chart.

 

[Ricboff]

Amzn....80%
Sbux.....15%
DHT......5%

Mich also on it. Approching its recent high, if it takes it down, next target is: $82.93. approx 6.8% upside , definite headwinds at that level, the 200 sma, HUGE level. Has not been above that level since early Feb. How do people buy starbcuks over tim hortons coffee?

 

[Ricboff]

might as well post its chart

SBUX

6 mth daily, 8 ema

forming a J-hook pattern , as was said needs to take out the previous high, l $79.90ish (late april)....the battle is on tomorrow ....above its 8 ema, so very nice


okay, enuf from me

 

[Bruins4Life]

Mich also on it. Approching its recent high, if it takes it down, next target is: $82.93. approx 6.8% upside , definite headwinds at that level, the 200 sma, HUGE level. Has not been above that level since early Feb. How do people buy starbcuks over tim hortons coffee?

Lol. I dont even drink coffee.

 

[Ricboff]

cash hours of course has not started. ES futures- jubilation to 2947 then rolled, printng a red candle that's well past half way down last Friday's candle. Spike in USD (no idea why, news wise ). 2881 was the low of last friday's candle, need some serious bad news/chnage in sentiment to take that out TODAY (during cash hours).