I largely agree with this but when you say you're buying the dip (the opposite of Northern Star stance which has been espoused throughout the thread), you're basically doing the same thing. Market timing. The money you have sitting in cash waiting for a dip is theoretically losing EV to money you could have working in the market. Time in > timing studies show as well.
Unless you just came into a lump sum and don't wanna deep dive or something like that.
Why Buffett "Be greedy when others are fearful" is kinda useless in practical application, how the hell do you define when others are fearful?
This this exactly what I am saying.
So having taken money out of the market and sitting here watching the drop thinking. The reason is because I still think there is more of a drop coming. So why would I want to jump back in yet? Things go down much faster than they go up. If you are buying on the drop....you have lost significantly more and will only do better when the market recovers.
To Pats point....what were you doing with all of that money in cash then? Must have just hit a 10 team parlay or something.
DOW did break support ,(but qqq and spy did not)
DOW is just 30 stocks , one of whcih had a VERY BAD day
BA
2 yr daily
like energy , add the airlines to those that r below Dec 2018 levels. Financials approaching.
DOW components dont lose 18% in a day..........hmm......
With allies like the Saudi's who needs enemies?
OIL was up 3% overnight and the Saudi's come out and said we r increasing production, OIL reverses dramatically. Full blown oil price war. Credit market needs to be protected , tremendous stress goin to hit N American energy sector (with these dramatic drops gotta figure the market is pricing this in), high yield sector maybe at risk, corp high yield down 9% over the last 2 weeks.That Saudi prince definitely seems more Sonny Corleone than Michael. Killed a journalist for nothing more than bad mouthing him. And now the first chance he gets is going to try and disrupt the global economy when it has some headwinds to deal with. In a perfect world we split that clown in half when this is all over.
k...on an ultra-short term outlook neither the NQ or the ES formed a lower low from yesterday's candles. Despite all the negativity so far, MOnday's low has held (also evident on the QQQ, and SPY, the latter foought back to reclaim it )
anyway, super negative environment. .....would be cool to HOLD here, do a 30% retrace back up, head back down and form a HIGHER low or re-test and hold this level.
Can it hold this level?...we shall see
anyway, super negative environment. .....would be cool to HOLD here, do a 30% retrace back up, head back down and form a HIGHER low or re-test and hold this level.
Can it hold this level?...we shall see
This is completely anecdotal, perhaps others in their own personal experiences will have had different interactions but today I had about 10 people I know ask me if they should sell. Last year from Sept-Dec had 0, had maybe 1-2 the previous 3 weeks combined.
Harbinger of things to come? I dunno but the big reason the stairs is the way up and the elevator is the way down is because everyone gets scared at the same time.
Who said anything about the average Joe moving the market by himself? If psychology turns that tons of average Joes, mom and pop investors, retail investors want to sell (something that hasn't really happened yet as this thread is evidence of, I think you're the only person ITT that has said they are jumping ship) then you're looking at a big leg down.
And I have anecdotal evidence that is in play more than before, but maybe it isn't yet and fear hasn't really set in.
And I have anecdotal evidence that is in play more than before, but maybe it isn't yet and fear hasn't really set in.
I think we will see a disruption of business as usual for maybe around 6 months or possibly longer. That will effect some stocks more than others. Cash heavy companies will definitely have an advantage because they will be able to weather the storm better. I have had Boeing nearly my entire life. They cut all hiring today and no overtime to hang onto their cash. Other companies will make similar moves.
