That was pretty funny. I don't think Miami attempted anything over 5 yards on that drive. Probably just as much the fault of OC Nix, who was absolutely awful. Keep in mind that Harris was pretty much thrown to the wolves late in the season as a true freshman. I look for a little improvement this year under a much better OC. But the jury is still out for me on this team. I might remind you guys that despite the poor offensive play in the last 2 minutes of the game, that Miami did cover the spread. Which is the bottom line.
I'm going to be keeping an eye on Florida Atlantic as well. They've got a good senior quarterback coming back from a junior year where he regressed and looked sloppy for much of the season. If the word on him from practice is good, there could be some decent betting opportunities. I'm specifically looking at their meeting with South Carolina in September.
AA...This is a little bit of a tough game because Nebraska will be starting a new QB. Right now as a wild guess without a line to look at, my lean is to Nebraska. This should probably go in my Handicapping 101 thread, but the first things I look at when matching up two teams like this is this:
The factor of stability vs uncertainy. Which of these teams will be the most stable to begin the season? Nebraska starting a new QB and a couple WR's. But a very good OL and RB in what is anticipated to be a very good running game this season. Or FAU, who's QB play was shaky last year because of Rusty Smith's injury. He also loses 3 starters off of his OL and his tight end, who was first team SBC. And FAU loses just about their entire defense...Not good..So in this first game i would say advantage Nebraska. They'll have a pretty salty defense coming back.
The factor of proven skill players vs unproven skill players. This is close. But it would probably have to belong to FAU in this game. FAU loses their TE and RB, but retain their WR's and QB. Nebraska will have some very good RB's. They have a WR that has been doing very well in spring practices. But that's all we know....Slight advantage FAU
The factor of a team's history in early games under it's present coach. For FAU, their early games have not been pretty under Smeelyburger. Especially against non-conference opponents. We don't have much to go on with pelini. They were 2-2 ATS in their first month last season. But like i said, FAU has just been awful early on.. So I would say big advantage Nebraska.
The factor of circumstance. This is also a tough one, because I can't think of any special circumstances that surround this game, other than it's the home opener for Nebraska. And Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in home openers the last 6 years. So i would say slight advantage Nebraska.
I think the bottom line here is we need to see how Rusty Smith and some of his new lineman do in the summer practices. And especially their defense, which loses a truckload of starts. And I don't like to see a whole new non-BCS conference defense who loses several SBC first teamers, going up against a power running team. Even if they do have a new QB. So that's why I would have a slight lean to the Huskers.
GS- which TE do they lose?
Housler was their backup and he might rs only because harmon, their best offensive player in '07 and an nfl prospect, is back from injury...grant, their starter at te last year (maybe he's all sbc) is back along w/ harmon from '07 so housler (32 rec last yr) might rs because he won't see the field
jmo, but hard to give a 3yr starter with over 30 starts 28 pts vs a first yr starter in his opening game...you might be asking this kid to put up 50 pts in his first game to cover the spread...i'm not touching this one, but at +28 i would have to re-consider
:toast:
Can you believe it, it's still May and the NFL opening week lines are already posted. There could be some real CFB lines in the works as you read. I bet there is. I don't recall offhand what they were, but last year some of these early lines and GOY lines were way off by the time the games were actually played.
It would be nice to find a few of them this time. Games where lines could be either on the money or way off like the spread in LSU/UW and maybe a total like ASU/UGA.
Games played a little later in the year where the lines are made a week before could be 7 points different from the way early lines. That is something worth finding. You can always middle them for real cheap and get lucky.
Maybe a team or 2 on the list will be involved in one of those.
I can think of one or 2 right now, and maybe even some not on the list.
It would be nice to find a few of them this time. Games where lines could be either on the money or way off like the spread in LSU/UW and maybe a total like ASU/UGA.
Games played a little later in the year where the lines are made a week before could be 7 points different from the way early lines. That is something worth finding. You can always middle them for real cheap and get lucky.
Maybe a team or 2 on the list will be involved in one of those.
I can think of one or 2 right now, and maybe even some not on the list.
I was going strictly by last season's starters. I wasn't aware Harmon got an extended hardship year for injury. I know he was supposed to be a senior last year.
I'll have to disagree with you about the Huskers having to put up 50 points to cover. They'll have the third best defense in the conference behind OU and Texas. I doubt very seriously that FAU can put up 21 on Nebraska in Lincoln. You need to consider the rest of the shabang besides the QB situation. FAU loses a ton on defense. Not good news for a Sunbelt team hitting the road in their first game. Going against the Husker running game, which will be strong this year. Who do you think is going to own time of possession in this game? If I know Pelini, he'll keep things close to the vest and take as much of the game off the QB's shoulders as he can. But this all really just mute talk until we see a line. I realize that NE will need to score some points here. It's just a matter of how much you think FAU can put up. My guess is not many.
for me it has nothing to do w/ the game specifics...rusty smith and those wrs are good enough to score points, and last i checked, even w/ an improved defense, nebraska isn't top 10 defensively. don't forget in last yrs opener at texas fau had it inside texas 10 yd line 3 times at the beginning of the game and only came away w/ 3 pts (int in endzone and fumbled center exchange on 2 drives)...fau drove on them and put yards up...by mid-3rd qtr down 45-17 schnellenberger pulled smith as to save him from an ass beating in a game that was already lost...regardless, 17 points in 2.5 qtrs and that's with turning it over twice inside the red zone makes me feel that fau can score 20 pts vs nebraska...but i don't feel like getting in a discussion on personnel matchups 4 months before a game is played...LOL
bottom line: i won't lay 4 td's with a kid in his first start ever, especially against a 3 yr starter who has won 2 bowl games. what happens if he turns the ball over early and gets spooked?? if pelini plays it close to the vest and it's 17-7 at half? 34-10 in the 4th and they sit on the ball because the kid's had a tough afternoon??
i'm just going by what has worked for me in the past, and laying big points is in order on certain occasions, but not on a first-time starter opening day against a proven starter imo.
:toast:
bottom line: i won't lay 4 td's with a kid in his first start ever, especially against a 3 yr starter who has won 2 bowl games. what happens if he turns the ball over early and gets spooked?? if pelini plays it close to the vest and it's 17-7 at half? 34-10 in the 4th and they sit on the ball because the kid's had a tough afternoon??
i'm just going by what has worked for me in the past, and laying big points is in order on certain occasions, but not on a first-time starter opening day against a proven starter imo.
:toast:
Trent...Go back and look at what FAU has given up on defense against even the most mediocre BCS teams that they've faced. They held MSU to 17 points last season. But that was in a driving rainstorm. In very few games have they been able to hold BCS conference opponents out of the 40's or 50's. And for all practical purposes they'll be playing with a new defense this year. As for Texas last season, much of FAU's success was because the Horns had a terrible defensive backfield and a new DC at the start of last season. And although they improved, they still struggled throughout the season back there. That was the one place you could really attack the Horns. The Huskers defensive backfield will be better. Like we can all agree, this is a mute point until we see a line. Hopefully a favorable one for the Huskers.
GS, the FAU line I'll be interested in seeing is the one against South Carolina -- a team I think will underachieve -- not so much against Nebraska. Between the Steve Spurrier factor still being given too much credit and Rusty Smith's down 2008, there's the potential for some softness in the line.
Here are the rest of my ATS breakdowns for the non-bcs conferences. As I stated at the first of this thread, the teams I'm listing are the ones that i think have a chance to get to 8 wins or more ATS this season. Teams who are automatically eliminated from this list are the teams who reached 8 wins or more last season. Very seldom do these teams ever repeat two moneymaking seasons in a row.
MAC
Ohio-6-6 ATS last season with most everybody back this year. Won their final two games last year. So they have a little momentum coming into this season.
Central Michigan-This team is al little borderline with me because I'm far from sold on their coach. They get alot of firepower back along with all of their defense. 5-6 ATS last season.
WAC
Boise St.-It's hard for me to leave this team out because they've been consistently good ATS for the last few years. They went 7-5 ATS last year with a young offense. They could very well improve on that number this season. Plus I'm kinda cheating here. They play a 13 game season with 7 home games. So getting to 8 games or more ATS looks very doable.
New Mexico St.-I may be going out on a limb a little here. But one thing we know is new HC DeWayne Walker was a very good DC for UCLA. So any improvement on that side of the ball for NMST will make them very competetive in a league that has no real standout teams this season other than Boise. NMST was 4-7 ATS last season. I would like to have seen one or two more ATS wins here. But with a new coach and new attitude, I think it's possible they could improve that number up to 8... Borderline
MWC
BYU-This is the only team I like to get to 8 ATS wins in the MWC..To tell you the truth, even BYU is a little borderline. But with the heavy graduations to TCU and to Utah's offense, and Utah probably not sneaking up on anybody this season, the only team left that looks like they could get to 8 wins is BYU. There are several reasons that I kind of like them. Although they lose most of their OL, they get back experienced QB Max Hall and just about all of their defense. And Bronco Mendenhall is a very solid coach. Especially defensive coach. So I expect his D to be much improved this year. Plus they get TCU and Utah at home.. And if OU beats BYU like I think they will in the first game of the season, I think this team will get some good line value for awhile after that. At least this is what I'm hoping for. The only thing I don't like about them is even though they were 10-2 SU last year, they were only 3-9 ATS. So they'll have to make a HUGE jump to get to 8 ATS wins or more. It's doable if they don't get overhyped too much. Wyoming could be a possible breakout team in this conference with Mizzou's OC coming in as HC and most of their team returning. But they'll need a HUGE improvment of 2-9 ATS to get to that 8 number this year. That may be asking too much.
CUSA
Southern Miss-This team is pretty high on my list. They have a coach in his second year, coming off a 7-5 ATS season. And they get just about everybody back. My frontrunner over Houston to win the CUSA. A possible breakout team is UAB. They improved from 2-10 the year before to 4-8 last season under Callaway.. And were 5-5-1 ATS. They get literally everybody back on offense. And that should keep them in their games. They finushed the season winning 2 out of 3 of their final games, and gave conference champ East Carolina all they can handle in a 17-13 loss. The only thing that makes me hesitate to outright take this team is I just don't know enough about Callaway. But I like the fact that they scored close to 30 ppg last year with a young offense. And should be improved this season.
Sunbelt
Middle Tennessee-Coming off a 6-6 ATS season. For a Sunbelt team they weren't bad on defense last year. It kept them in most of their games. Their offense struggled some. But they were very young. They get literally everybody back on that side of the ball this year. They finished the season strong.. My frontrunner to win the SBC. Two possible breakout teams in this conference are Arky State and North Texas. ASU gets about everybody back from a 6-6 team. They should be improved. But they were only 3-8 ATS last season. North Texas loses less starters than any team in the SBC. So by all rights they should improve the most. Especially since they get to play 6 home games for the first time since 1993. The only thing holding me back is their head coach. Who I still have some serious doubts about. But even though they went 1-11 SU they were 4-8 ATS last season. So they could possibly get there.
MAC
Ohio-6-6 ATS last season with most everybody back this year. Won their final two games last year. So they have a little momentum coming into this season.
Central Michigan-This team is al little borderline with me because I'm far from sold on their coach. They get alot of firepower back along with all of their defense. 5-6 ATS last season.
WAC
Boise St.-It's hard for me to leave this team out because they've been consistently good ATS for the last few years. They went 7-5 ATS last year with a young offense. They could very well improve on that number this season. Plus I'm kinda cheating here. They play a 13 game season with 7 home games. So getting to 8 games or more ATS looks very doable.
New Mexico St.-I may be going out on a limb a little here. But one thing we know is new HC DeWayne Walker was a very good DC for UCLA. So any improvement on that side of the ball for NMST will make them very competetive in a league that has no real standout teams this season other than Boise. NMST was 4-7 ATS last season. I would like to have seen one or two more ATS wins here. But with a new coach and new attitude, I think it's possible they could improve that number up to 8... Borderline
MWC
BYU-This is the only team I like to get to 8 ATS wins in the MWC..To tell you the truth, even BYU is a little borderline. But with the heavy graduations to TCU and to Utah's offense, and Utah probably not sneaking up on anybody this season, the only team left that looks like they could get to 8 wins is BYU. There are several reasons that I kind of like them. Although they lose most of their OL, they get back experienced QB Max Hall and just about all of their defense. And Bronco Mendenhall is a very solid coach. Especially defensive coach. So I expect his D to be much improved this year. Plus they get TCU and Utah at home.. And if OU beats BYU like I think they will in the first game of the season, I think this team will get some good line value for awhile after that. At least this is what I'm hoping for. The only thing I don't like about them is even though they were 10-2 SU last year, they were only 3-9 ATS. So they'll have to make a HUGE jump to get to 8 ATS wins or more. It's doable if they don't get overhyped too much. Wyoming could be a possible breakout team in this conference with Mizzou's OC coming in as HC and most of their team returning. But they'll need a HUGE improvment of 2-9 ATS to get to that 8 number this year. That may be asking too much.
CUSA
Southern Miss-This team is pretty high on my list. They have a coach in his second year, coming off a 7-5 ATS season. And they get just about everybody back. My frontrunner over Houston to win the CUSA. A possible breakout team is UAB. They improved from 2-10 the year before to 4-8 last season under Callaway.. And were 5-5-1 ATS. They get literally everybody back on offense. And that should keep them in their games. They finushed the season winning 2 out of 3 of their final games, and gave conference champ East Carolina all they can handle in a 17-13 loss. The only thing that makes me hesitate to outright take this team is I just don't know enough about Callaway. But I like the fact that they scored close to 30 ppg last year with a young offense. And should be improved this season.
Sunbelt
Middle Tennessee-Coming off a 6-6 ATS season. For a Sunbelt team they weren't bad on defense last year. It kept them in most of their games. Their offense struggled some. But they were very young. They get literally everybody back on that side of the ball this year. They finished the season strong.. My frontrunner to win the SBC. Two possible breakout teams in this conference are Arky State and North Texas. ASU gets about everybody back from a 6-6 team. They should be improved. But they were only 3-8 ATS last season. North Texas loses less starters than any team in the SBC. So by all rights they should improve the most. Especially since they get to play 6 home games for the first time since 1993. The only thing holding me back is their head coach. Who I still have some serious doubts about. But even though they went 1-11 SU they were 4-8 ATS last season. So they could possibly get there.
Of the Independents the only team I like is Notre Dame. They went 6-6 SU and ATS last season, and return a ton of offensive talent combined with an easy schedule. The winning formula for a big moneymaking season. The only thing that could hold us back is Weis. But I like veteran teams. The leadership is already there without having to be coached up. So I don't see Weis fuking things up too much with this team. The Luck 'O the Irish could be back this season.
I wanted to close this thread with one final thing to think about with these ATS teams. I think it's very very important here to keep in mind that a team very seldom can have two great ATS seasons in a row. UCLA had 8 wins ATS in both 2006 and 2007. But not one team who had 8 wins or more in 2007 was able to repeat that feat in 2008.. So out of 120 teams, only 1 team in the last 3 years has been able to repeat a good ATS season. Here is a list of the highly ranked teams this season, or the so-called surprise teams that are expected to do well that had 8 wins or more ATS last year.. Keep in mind that these teams may all have a great SU wins season. But the chances of them being a good team ATS where they cover more than 50% of their games for the entire season are probably less than 5%.
Okie State (9 ATS wins last season)
CAL (8 wins)
Florida (10 wins)
NCST (9 wins)
Ole Miss (8 wins)
Oklahoma (10 wins)
Penn State (9 wins)
Oregon St. (8 wins)
Rutgers (9 wins)
TCU (9 wins)
Alabama (9 wins)
I won't be completely fading these teams. But I will be picking my spots much more carefully with them.
Okie State (9 ATS wins last season)
CAL (8 wins)
Florida (10 wins)
NCST (9 wins)
Ole Miss (8 wins)
Oklahoma (10 wins)
Penn State (9 wins)
Oregon St. (8 wins)
Rutgers (9 wins)
TCU (9 wins)
Alabama (9 wins)
I won't be completely fading these teams. But I will be picking my spots much more carefully with them.
