***Computer Baseball Picks ***

[Mistermj]

A three pack tonight...hopefully this thing heats up soon.

Keep it small...it's a volume system and unproven.

Good luck!


MLB New Computer Picks


Wednesday, July 29

<table class="thepicks"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Colorado </td> <td> - </td> <td>7:10 PM ET</td> <td>NY Mets -135</td> <td>100</td> </tr> <tr> <td> NY Mets </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Washington </td> <td> - </td> <td>8:05 PM ET</td> <td>Washington +180</td> <td>100</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Milwaukee </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Philadelphia </td> <td> - </td> <td>9:40 PM ET</td> <td>Arizona +144</td> <td>100</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="data" id="ctrl_leaderboard_dgContestLeaders" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="my-stats"><td class="center">1-3-0 </td><td> 25.00% </td><td> -$274</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[tommyjohn44]

That Dbacks play sure is going to have some people crapping their pants around here today!

 

[ds123]

It's not about whether you think the DBacks can win tonight.


It's about whether there is value in the ML odds set for the DBacks tonight.

 

[ionicking]

Best of luck MJ! Hope you do well!

 

[thatoneguy]

It's not about whether you think the DBacks can win tonight.


It's about whether there is value in the ML odds set for the DBacks tonight.

Are you that stupid? Unless you happen to be playing Phi in a market and you're just going to sell it back before the game to arbitrage the spike in prices, then I'm pretty sure it does matter if Az wins tonight. You can have forty million shekels to the moon worth of value, but it doesn't mean shit if your team loses and you in turn, need to pay.

 

[tommyjohn44]

Are you that stupid? Unless you happen to be playing Phi in a market and you're just going to sell it back before the game to arbitrage the spike in prices, then I'm pretty sure it does matter if Az wins tonight. You can have forty million shekels to the moon worth of value, but it doesn't mean shit if your team loses and you in turn, need to pay.

ahh...the short term bettor (who only sees wins and losses) vs the long term bettor (who seeks proper EV and market value in line movements) debate...

 

[xyzky]

ahh...the short term bettor (who only sees wins and losses) vs the long term bettor (who seeks proper EV and market value in line movements) debate...

<<

 

[ds123]

Are you that stupid? Unless you happen to be playing Phi in a market and you're just going to sell it back before the game to arbitrage the spike in prices, then I'm pretty sure it does matter if Az wins tonight. You can have forty million shekels to the moon worth of value, but it doesn't mean shit if your team loses and you in turn, need to pay.

So what you're saying is the bottom line is that you win your bet, regardless of the juice?

I would rather make winning picks 10% of the time on nothing but 12-1 dogs than pick winners 80% of the time on 1-20 favs.





You still have a lot to learn, grasshopper.

 

[thatoneguy]

ahh...the short term bettor (who only sees wins and losses) vs the long term bettor (who seeks proper EV and market value in line movements) debate...

there is no market value if you're not wagering in a market setting and in mj's case, as far as i know, he's not placing these at wsex, etc. put it this way, how much value does the losing side have after the game is over? because i'll gladly give whatever odds anyone on this board wants to create value for a loser in a game that's already been completed. i agree that often i find that teams are under or over priced, but when you lose, short or long term, you lose. it's called a loss for a reason. think of it in accounting terms, when it's a market environment, a stock can go up or down all it wants but you never recognize a gain(win) or loss until you sell(to keep it simple) that stock. given that the majority of players on this site are not in a market setting, once they make their bets, they're final and the outcome is the only thing that matters.

 

[thatoneguy]

So what you're saying is the bottom line is that you win your bet, regardless of the juice?

I would rather make winning picks 10% of the time on nothing but 12-1 dogs than pick winners 80% of the time on 1-20 favs.

You still have a lot to learn, grasshopper.

so go ahead and teach me, in fact, let's start with what the hell that first sentence is supposed to mean. because yes, if i win my bet, then i win my bet, the price never even comes into play if you want to know whether or i won or lost. if you want to start tossing around roi and the like, then we can, but that's a completely different arena. has anyone ever asked you if you won or lost and you answered with something like, "oh, i lost, but i have a ton of value in yesterday's padres?" and even there you can try to make the argument that if a team wins 7000 straight games and they're playing a bunch of 2nd graders that they have tons of value at -130, but if they lose that game, they and you, lost. value can eat a dick in that instance.

 

[ds123]

there is no market value if you're not wagering in a market setting and in mj's case, as far as i know, he's not placing these at wsex, etc. put it this way, how much value does the losing side have after the game is over? because i'll gladly give whatever odds anyone on this board wants to create value for a loser in a game that's already been completed. i agree that often i find that teams are under or over priced, but when you lose, short or long term, you lose. it's called a loss for a reason. think of it in accounting terms, when it's a market environment, a stock can go up or down all it wants but you never recognize a gain(win) or loss until you sell(to keep it simple) that stock. given that the majority of players on this site are not in a market setting, once they make their bets, they're final and the outcome is the only thing that matters.

You're looking at it one bet at a time, aka the short term. If MJ feels the DBacks can win 36% of the time, he breaks even at those odds. Say he put the DBacks at 40% chance to win, not that different from their winning percentage (tho they are playing a real strong team, they are also at home). He thus sees positive value in betting the Dbacks at +140.

Like he said about his new computer picks, it's a VOLUME system that places alot of bets, probably at what he feels are wagers that have a small, but positive expected value.



It doesn't matter at all what the chances are the Dbacks can win tonight. If you told MJ it was 10%, 5%, 60% or whatever, he or I couldn't profit on that information in any capacity. You seem to think that's all that matters. I would need additional information on what the ML is on the Dbacks. If I could have that information too, then I could quit my job right now and buy a private island. Good thing is, I do have precise ML info. Bad thing is, MJ or I doesn't know the exact chances of the Dbacks winning. But whatever it is MJ has assigned to that value, it's better than 36%, aka the break even point for a wager at +140.




What you're doing is betting on the Phils, celebrating your profit tonight, whereas the sharp bettor doesn't care about what happens just tonight. He will take Dbacks every time if they repeated this game over and over if he feels their chances of winning are better than 36%. You, on the other hand, just see that wow, if I bet the Phils, I can take home a profit say 60% of the time, but then what happens is on winning nights you take home a pittance, and on the losing nights you lose your unit. Over time, you will lose your entire roll if this game were to be repeated over and over and you kept laying on the Phils with overpriced odds.

You forget that tomorrow is another day, and that over the longterm, hundreds of bets will be made. If I had $1M freeplay, and could only make a single bet my entire life on a single MLB game, then yes, I would probably take the biggest favorite I could find, even at horrible ML odds because I want to guarantee a profit. But if I had the chance to make all the bets I want with that $1M, then I would look for profitable, positive EV picks. Since we are not restricted to just making a single bet and calling it quits, the latter strategy is clearly the answer to winning longterm.

Grasshopper, lecture is over today.

 

[thatoneguy]

did you even read what you quoted? i understand what you're saying and how to compute basic percentages. i also understand that 3 quarters are worth more than 6 dimes. but since you have an infinite bankroll, life span and time to teach morons like me, eventually, you'll be in the black because sooner or later, regression and elasticity will invariably get you above the profit line. do you even realize what you're trying to argue is EXACTLY how bookies make their money from players? who makes more money long term, books or players? i promise i get what you're saying, but to state that whether or not a team wins doesn't matter is just... well... keep playing and good luck.


you edited what you wrote and added a couple paragraphs, which i'm not going to read. i saw the word guarantee and realized i'm wasting my time.



thanks for the work mj, you're one hell of a capper

 

[ds123]

did you even read what you quoted? i understand what you're saying and how to compute basic percentages. i also understand that 3 quarters are worth more than 6 dimes. but since you have an infinite bankroll, life span and time to teach morons like me, eventually, you'll be in the black because sooner or later, regression and elasticity will invariably get you above the profit line. do you even realize what you're trying to argue is EXACTLY how bookies make their money from players? who makes more money long term, books or players? i promise i get what you're saying, but to state that whether or not a team wins doesn't matter is just... well... keep playing and good luck.



thanks for the work mj, you're one hell of a capper

I don't want to clog MJ's thread anymore with our bickering, but when I say it doesn't even matter if a team wins or loses, I'm dead serious. Please stay with me here..

No one can say with 100% certainty whether a team wins or loses. Best you can do is assign a percentage to that, compare that to what the ML is, and see if you get positive value out of your bet. The team may lose or win, you can't control that. All you can control is picking and entering into wagers that yield positive value. If you're good at capping, you will be fairly accurate in predicting the chances a team will win and thus finding positive EV is just a matter of comparing your numbers to the ML's.


The wins and losses will take care of themselves, and average out to the numbers you predicted lover time(assuming you are a good capper).



If I didn't convince you with my crazy theories, at least hopefully I'll make MJ's followers a little less worried about taking the DBacks tonight.



Keep up the good work MJ.

 

[roc18]

D-Backs? Mind if I ask why MJ?

 

[Icemantbi]

Mets/Rox called off. Still, we go 1-1 tonight and we make money. Can't complain about that. BOL

 

[Mistermj]

D-Backs? Mind if I ask why MJ?

Computer scan says D-backs are value tonight.

 

[roc18]

Computer scan says D-backs are value tonight.

Hmmm I wonder what that computer sees in Arizona because I capped Phils as my only play today.

 

[ds123]

Hmmm I wonder what that computer sees in Arizona because I capped Phils as my only play today.

'

This probably isn't what the computer saw, but even bad teams play out of their mind when facing a home sweep. Nationals were still .600 when facing a sweep at home back when they were still 25-65.

 

[roc18]

'

This probably isn't what the computer saw, but even bad teams play out of their mind when facing a home sweep. Nationals were still .600 when facing a sweep at home back when they were still 25-65.

Yeah I was thinking there was some trend that I didnt notice. We will just have to wait and see. !~~~!

 

[Mistermj]

Hmmm I wonder what that computer sees in Arizona because I capped Phils as my only play today.

Don't let me or my computer psyche you out of your own handicapping.

For a volume system like this...I always maintain that good handicapping can over ride it.

This is a new system...we don't even know if it's any good.

As a volume system...I am relying on having an edge after oh...at least 40-50 picks...one game doesn't mean anything....any one pick can be terrible...I am relying on the power of numbers to make up for that over time.

I hope this helps.

Think of my picks as maybe having a slight edge if you play all 50 of the next set of picks....but one game...by itself...hardly means a thing.