Common mistake made by many posters at this site.

[BigLouReturns]

Another big mistake people make:

historical data. What happened in the past has absolutely 0 effect on the game being played.

what someone or some team did 3 years ago doesn’t effect the now.

some team might have another teams number or have difficulties playing in a certain place, and that should be capped in, but those circumstances are rare and shouldn’t be applied to all games.

cap the game with your eyes. Cap the games in the now. You’ll be much better off that way.

Respectfully disagree with you on the historical data when it comes to the Super Bowl. Knowing your history of this game and how the past relates to the present is everything.

 

[uscmd]

Lou, I also disagree. Lines are pulled, imho, only when theres major uncertainty re: the game. Injury, most often. A variable, they cannot factor in. The boys in the desert, "win" no matter who wins on the field. If they really like 1 side the adjust the line to take in more bets on the other side. If they don't have a strong opinion, the lines are simply a way of leveling the handle. Remember these guys are absolutely playing a long game. They may look at a whole year the way we look at a single wager.

One addendum. This started off as a brutal year, for the house. The old adage, fade the public at 70%+, fell flat. If fade the public fails.....that means house pays out. E.g., if 75% of bets on team A, (25% team B) house loses 50% less the vig. with a team A cover.

Lastly, playoffs, "lighter" lines because of parity. Which is great for the house. Ideal 50-50, which gives them 10% of all bets made, profit. 16 billion to be bet on SB this year. 10% = 160 million. These are just round numbers, to make a point.

BOL 2 all. I hope your team wins.

 

[DocHolliday]

Careful: some people here will tell you Vegas isn’t look for a 50-50 ideal. They have ways to trick you into betting a losing side.

And yes. you read that right

i agree with most of the above post however.

 

[Loves2kickass]

I had to read this post again for some comedy lol

 

[BigLouReturns]

I had to read this post again for some comedy lol

He makes my point for me. Classic!

 

[kajaldigital8700]

One common mistake made by many posters on this site is not providing enough context or background information for their questions. When asking for assistance or seeking information, it's crucial to give enough details to help others understand the specific issue or topic. Lack of context can lead to ambiguous or incomplete answers, which may not address the poster's actual needs. To receive more accurate and helpful responses, it's best to be clear and specific about the problem or topic at hand. Adding relevant details, such as relevant dates, relevant names, or any other relevant information, can significantly improve the quality of responses received.

 

[BigLouReturns]

One common mistake made by many posters on this site is not providing enough context or background information for their questions. When asking for assistance or seeking information, it's crucial to give enough details to help others understand the specific issue or topic. Lack of context can lead to ambiguous or incomplete answers, which may not address the poster's actual needs. To receive more accurate and helpful responses, it's best to be clear and specific about the problem or topic at hand. Adding relevant details, such as relevant dates, relevant names, or any other relevant information, can significantly improve the quality of responses received.

Life is too short to describe every point you're trying to make. I posted something that I've noticed through the years and G-man made my point for me. Doesn't get any better than that. The problem is he won't learn from his mistake. He'll do the same thing next year.

 

[DocHolliday]

Feel like this thread deserves a bump. Good read for new posters here

 

[BigLouReturns]

Bump for the 2023 post-season.

 

[BigLouReturns]

• I think some posters are going w Jax because it feels like LAC is the square bet, god forbid, you cannot be looked at as a square around here!
• A bit of a miracle for Jax to be in this game, outplayed on both sides of the ball by injury riddled & scrub QB led Titans in a game that counted but that freak long defensive TD put them in
• Jax played one decent offense its last 5 games, Tennessee twice, Houston, Jets, and a disinterested unmotivated Dallas team
• I say Vegas WANTS you to take the 2 1/2 or 3

I see a lot of that type of "thinking" all over this board.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Betting on all six games

Did anyone disprove this last year?

 

[G-Man!]

Betting on all six games.

Thats your mistake thinking its cant be done.

No way you have a significant edge in all 6 games
You can do it if you vary your wagwers but even then I wouldn't advise it
JMO

As I noted below/ and going 5-1 this week.

Only responding to the assumption.

There is an EDGE on every game. Otherwise Vegas wouldn't take the risk to post a line on every game. When Vegas doesnt have the advantage built into the spread against the masses, they pull the game down.

Its their line- not the gamblers line - and the gambler has to find the advantage that began already posted in Vegas' favor, otherwise they wouldn't take the risk and take the bets.
It always been based on pubic betting history and and current public perception.

This^^^

You guys are always trying to justify opinions when every game has a line which means every game can have an edge.